Final Howey/DePauw Indiana Battleground Poll: Romney+10

[Tender Branson]

51% Romney
41% Obama
  2% Johnson

The survey was conducted by Republican pollster Christine Matthews of Bellwether Research and Democratic pollster Fred Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research between Oct. 28-30 among 800 likely Hoosier voters (+/-3.5)

http://howeypolitics.com

[Tender Branson]

Will this be enough to call IN right when the polls close on Tuesday ?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Amazing how big the Romney-Donnelly gap is.

[Adam Griffin]

I just don't see how virtually all of Obama's added support in 2008 could just evaporate into thin air.

[Minnesota Mike]

Looks about right. Indiana was the flukiest state of 2008, still not sure how Obama won. Most interesting part of the poll is Donnelly up 11. Republicans choke away another Senate seat.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I just don't see how virtually all of Obama's added support in 2008 could just evaporate into thin air.

There's always a couple states with big, inexplicable swings.

[Seriously?]

Will this be enough to call IN right when the polls close on Tuesday ?

It should be. But VNS is historically slow in calling pro-Republican states on election night.

[pbrower2a]

Looks about right. Indiana was the flukiest state of 2008, still not sure how Obama won. Most interesting part of the poll is Donnelly up 11. Republicans choke away another Senate seat.

I just don't see how virtually all of Obama's added support in 2008 could just evaporate into thin air.

There's always a couple states with big, inexplicable swings.

 Barack Obama invested much time, effort, and money in Indiana in 2008 beginning in the primaries. He set up a strong campaign apparatus that he kept in place because Indiana seemed like a desirable state to win. Because he was campaigning from Chicago he could negate the ability of nationwide Republicans to use the R machine to secure the state. Barack Obama was able to win the state largely because of economic distress that hit the vehicle industry hard.

President Obama is not going to win Indiana, but if Indiana goes for Romney. He has campaigned little in Indiana because he has easier and richer rewards for electoral votes (notably FL, NC, OH, and VA). The Indiana economy was a lose-lose proposition for him. If it stayed bad President Obama would lose due to economic failure which would show him ineffective enough to lose the state by 15-20 and not get re-elected (because he would also lose such states as Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin). If the economy got better, then other issues would come to the fore (taxes, cultural issues) that would cause President Obama to lose the state for much the same reasons that would cause him to lose Kentucky.

Indiana is conservative, but it isn't crazy. Lugar was a good choice for Senate in Indiana for years, and he would probably be on his way to another landslide  had he won in the primary election. He typically won a significant number of Democratic votes that Mourdock was never going to get.  Extremists can win reliably in ultra-safe bailiwicks, but Indiana is not quite one of them. Mitt Romney can win Indiana because he isn't a raging fascist.

Indiana is a tough state for Democrats to win. It went twice in four times for FDR; it went for Eisenhower by 18 and 20 despite Adlai Stevenson being from the neighboring state; it went for Nixon by 11 in a very close election and by 13 for him in 1968 in a three-way election in which George Wallace's racist campaign  probably picked off some voters who would have otherwise gone to Nixon. It went to Ford by 8 and never went to Bill Clinton (who should have been a fairly-good match for the state). Gore lost Indiana by 15 and Kerry lost by 20. That's before I discuss R blowouts in 1972, 1980, 1984, and 1988.

Indiana goes to a Democrat in a huge landslide or perhaps if the Democrat does much campaigning there (close in 1948 for Truman in a close election that had plenty of whistle-stop campaigns in Indiana; bare win for Obama when the state acted as if Indiana had a Favorite Son. The difference between Indiana in 2008 and 2012 is much the same as if the Democratic candidate were a Favorite Son in 2008 and is not this year.

If Indiana goes for Romney by 10 or less, then President Obama wins nationwide. So it was with Truman, Kennedy, Carter in 1976, or Clinton twice.

[Franzl]

Will this be enough to call IN right when the polls close on Tuesday ?

It should be. But VNS is historically slow in calling pro-Republican states on election night.

Exit polls (the raw data) always seem to oversample Democrats (by a good deal) on Election Night, so Republican states tend to look closer than they really are.

[Tender Branson]

Will this be enough to call IN right when the polls close on Tuesday ?

It should be. But VNS is historically slow in calling pro-Republican states on election night.

VNS doesn't exist anymore, because of their idiotic exit polls in 2000 and 2002.

Edison Research is doing the Exit Polls these days.

[Eraserhead]

pbrower2a has it right for the most part, I think. Obama endeared himself to Indiana during that hard fought primary with Clinton there in '08, even though he ended up losing it by 1%. The apparatus he had set up during the primary made it easier for him to jump right back in there when it began to look like he might actually have a shot there in the general election.

This time around, he's opted to completely ignore the state... and this is the result of that.

[tmthforu94]

Granted, it was enough to win, but I think Barack Obama pretty much reached the absolute ceiling for a Democratic candidate in a race that's at least somewhat competitive in 2008. He had been in the state multiple times, had a lot of offices and money pumped into the state, and had a good national environmental. He also had some name recognition from being Senator right next door in Illinois. On the flip side, McCain knew that if he was being forced to defend Indiana, he was doomed, so spent no time here and little resources. Had he made even a half-hearted effort in Indiana, he would have won.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I just don't see how virtually all of Obama's added support in 2008 could just evaporate into thin air.

Romney+10 would be a 11-point rep swing from 2008. As the national swing is likely to be around 5 points, this would only translate in a 6-point trend. Indiana would still be more Democratic than it was in 1996, 2000 and 2004 (and roughly the same as 1992). Seems pretty reasonable to me.