GA-20/20 Insight/Better Georgia: Romney+6

[Tender Branson]

52% Romney
46% Obama
  1% Others
  1% Undecided

Conducted by 20/20 Insight, LLC
October 29-31, 2012
1,316 Likely Voters (2.7% Margin of Error)

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/2020insightgeorgia1112.pdf

[Tender Branson]

This result could be directly out of my "final predictions thread" that I'm creating on Monday ...

[Adam Griffin]

Great news! I think Georgia will be closer to its 2008 result than many expect. Some of the early turnout numbers by county I've been reviewing are looking very good.

[Minnesota Mike]

It pisses me off that there will be no exit polls from Georgia. While it is safe Republican in 2012 the trend is definitely in the Democrats direction.

[Tender Branson]

It pisses me off that there will be no exit polls from Georgia. While it is safe Republican in 2012 the trend is definitely in the Democrats direction.

There will be:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=162691.0

[pbrower2a]

If this poll is valid, then Georgia shows results consistent with an election similar to that of 2008. D turnout might be strong enough to flip a couple of House seats even if the state has no chance of going to President Obama.  Results in the State Legislature should be more D-friendly.

This is consistent with North Carolina and Florida being very close... and Virginia having a greater chance of winning than losing in Virginia. 

[Adam Griffin]

D turnout might be strong enough to flip a couple of House seats even if the state has no chance of going to President Obama.

Not to mention saving one. The same poll did a sample of CD12 and shows Barrow up by 6 (50-44). Of course, this is one of those rare cases where a Georgia Democrat is outspending a Republican 3-to-1.

[Brittain33]

Wait, did they poll Georgia or a Better Georgia?

[Skill and Chance]

D turnout might be strong enough to flip a couple of House seats even if the state has no chance of going to President Obama.

Not to mention saving one. The same poll did a sample of CD12 and shows Barrow up by 6 (50-44). Of course, this is one of those rare cases where a Georgia Democrat is outspending a Republican 3-to-1.

The sample size is probably low, but that's impressive for Barrow.  He really should try for governor in 2014, or maybe senate if Romney is president.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Wait, did they poll Georgia or a Better Georgia?

This is Georgia I think.  And North Carolina has been polled plenty of times. 

[Lief 🗽]

Great news! Black Obama supporters are incredibly enthusiastic, and while we won't win Georgia, it bodes well for North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio, where black turnout is very important.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

D turnout might be strong enough to flip a couple of House seats even if the state has no chance of going to President Obama.

Not to mention saving one. The same poll did a sample of CD12 and shows Barrow up by 6 (50-44). Of course, this is one of those rare cases where a Georgia Democrat is outspending a Republican 3-to-1.

The sample size is probably low, but that's impressive for Barrow.  He really should try for governor in 2014, or maybe senate if Romney is president.

If Barrow holds on, it will only be because he's the incumbent.  If he runs for higher office, the GOP will get his old seat and he'll likely not win statewide.  Altho with all the gerrymandering the GOP has repeatedly done to try and get rid of him, he has represented more like 2 CDs worth of voters instead of the usual 1 CD, so he has a bit more name recognition than is usual for a non-leadership Representative.

[Skill and Chance]

D turnout might be strong enough to flip a couple of House seats even if the state has no chance of going to President Obama.

Not to mention saving one. The same poll did a sample of CD12 and shows Barrow up by 6 (50-44). Of course, this is one of those rare cases where a Georgia Democrat is outspending a Republican 3-to-1.

The sample size is probably low, but that's impressive for Barrow.  He really should try for governor in 2014, or maybe senate if Romney is president.

If Barrow holds on, it will only be because he's the incumbent.  If he runs for higher office, the GOP will get his old seat and he'll likely not win statewide.  Altho with all the gerrymandering the GOP has repeatedly done to try and get rid of him, he has represented more like 2 CDs worth of voters instead of the usual 1 CD, so he has a bit more name recognition than is usual for a non-leadership Representative.

His current seat is more conservative than the state.  If he wins it this year, he can at least compete on equal footing statewide.  I don't think Deal is the most popular governor out there right now, either.

[Adam Griffin]

His current seat is more conservative than the state.  If he wins it this year, he can at least compete on equal footing statewide.  I don't think Deal is the most popular governor out there right now, either.

Yeah, they also did Deal's favorables/unfavorables in this poll. They're showing 26/32, with 22% 'neutral' and 19% undecided/haven't heard of him.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

As expected, Romney will win, but not convincingly. Of course, all those black voters are condensed in safe Democratic districts, so this won't have much effect downballot.