PPP: Obama up 5 points in both Wisconsin and Iowa

[Seriously?]

People put way too much stock in advocacy polls..

This "poll" was commissioned for a "progressive" political action committe: Health Care for
America Now. There is no methodology and there is no raw data in any of the cross-tabs, just percentages.

[Lief 🗽]

Nice scare quotes, bro.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Damn, krazen didn't post these polls.  I wonder what their model is.  So many models, so little time.

Obama is not making TWO trips to Wisconsin a week before the election if his internals are showing a 5 or 8 lead in the state. Advantage Obama perhaps, but I am not buying this huge lead narrative.

Obama has a large enough lead nationally that I think he's beginning to take the Senate races into consideration as to where to spend his time.  Wisconsin is both the weakest of his 271 EV core and it has a close race that is at the moment a tossup that leans slightly to Baldwin.  Obama only needs 270 EV, so he can afford to spend time in firewall states such as Wisconsin and Nevada where he looks fairly certain to win but the Senate race is in doubt.  It's not so dominating a lead that he can afford to spend time in Montana and North Dakota as he can't neglect his own race, but the twofer states with close Senate races such as Virginia are definitely worth his while.

[Lief 🗽]

^^^Very good analysis, I completely agree.

[Seriously?]

Damn, krazen didn't post these polls.  I wonder what their model is.  So many models, so little time.

Obama is not making TWO trips to Wisconsin a week before the election if his internals are showing a 5 or 8 lead in the state. Advantage Obama perhaps, but I am not buying this huge lead narrative.

Obama has a large enough lead nationally that I think he's beginning to take the Senate races into consideration as to where to spend his time.  Wisconsin is both the weakest of his 271 EV core and it has a close race that is at the moment a tossup that leans slightly to Baldwin.  Obama only needs 270 EV, so he can afford to spend time in firewall states such as Wisconsin and Nevada where he looks fairly certain to win but the Senate race is in doubt.  It's not so dominating a lead that he can afford to spend time in Montana and North Dakota as he can't neglect his own race, but the twofer states with close Senate races such as Virginia are definitely worth his while.

Huge enough lead? It's a flat-footed tie in the national polls according to the RCP average. I don't think either candidate has any choice but to focus on their core states at this point. There's no time for helping out Senate candidates with a Senate that will probably stay in Democrat hands either way.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Damn, krazen didn't post these polls.  I wonder what their model is.  So many models, so little time.

Obama is not making TWO trips to Wisconsin a week before the election if his internals are showing a 5 or 8 lead in the state. Advantage Obama perhaps, but I am not buying this huge lead narrative.

Obama has a large enough lead nationally that I think he's beginning to take the Senate races into consideration as to where to spend his time.  Wisconsin is both the weakest of his 271 EV core and it has a close race that is at the moment a tossup that leans slightly to Baldwin.  Obama only needs 270 EV, so he can afford to spend time in firewall states such as Wisconsin and Nevada where he looks fairly certain to win but the Senate race is in doubt.  It's not so dominating a lead that he can afford to spend time in Montana and North Dakota as he can't neglect his own race, but the twofer states with close Senate races such as Virginia are definitely worth his while.

Huge enough lead? It's a flat-footed tie in the national polls according to the RCP average. I don't think either candidate has any choice but to focus on their core states at this point. There's no time for helping out Senate candidates with a Senate that will probably stay in Democrat hands either way.

The more Democrats he has in the Senate, the fewer Republicans Obama needs to peel off to stop a filibuster on things like judicial nominations.  Also, the national popular vote lead is meaningless.  It's the electoral college that's important.  Right now Obama looks to have at minimum 271 EVs, even if you assign all the tossup states to Romney.  Romney needs to break out beyond the tossups, into lean Obama states such as Wisconsin to have even a chance of winning the election.  Obama's doing well enough to emphasize battleground states that have close Senate races, even if the Presidential race in that state doesn't look that close.

[opebo]

Damn, krazen didn't post these polls.  I wonder what their model is.  So many models, so little time.

Obama is not making TWO trips to Wisconsin a week before the election if his internals are showing a 5 or 8 lead in the state. Advantage Obama perhaps, but I am not buying this huge lead narrative.

Obama has a large enough lead nationally that I think he's beginning to take the Senate races into consideration as to where to spend his time.  Wisconsin is both the weakest of his 271 EV core and it has a close race that is at the moment a tossup that leans slightly to Baldwin.  Obama only needs 270 EV, so he can afford to spend time in firewall states such as Wisconsin and Nevada where he looks fairly certain to win but the Senate race is in doubt.  It's not so dominating a lead that he can afford to spend time in Montana and North Dakota as he can't neglect his own race, but the twofer states with close Senate races such as Virginia are definitely worth his while.

Huge enough lead? It's a flat-footed tie...

Actually he said 'large enough', not 'huge enough', but I agree that this was the only flaw in his otherwise spot-on analysis.  The lead is very narrow, and so, he's well advised to spend his time in his weakest leans.  If it helps Baldwin its just icing on the cake (though I think it is accurate to say Berkeley needs more help).

[limac333]

Damn, krazen didn't post these polls.  I wonder what their model is.  So many models, so little time.

Obama is not making TWO trips to Wisconsin a week before the election if his internals are showing a 5 or 8 lead in the state. Advantage Obama perhaps, but I am not buying this huge lead narrative.

Obama has a large enough lead nationally that I think he's beginning to take the Senate races into consideration as to where to spend his time.  Wisconsin is both the weakest of his 271 EV core and it has a close race that is at the moment a tossup that leans slightly to Baldwin.  Obama only needs 270 EV, so he can afford to spend time in firewall states such as Wisconsin and Nevada where he looks fairly certain to win but the Senate race is in doubt.  It's not so dominating a lead that he can afford to spend time in Montana and North Dakota as he can't neglect his own race, but the twofer states with close Senate races such as Virginia are definitely worth his while.

I agree too, although I don't know if Obama would go to North Dakota (and to a lesser extent Montana) to campaign on behalf of the Senate candidates because I don't think having the Democratic nominees standing next to the President wins them votes. Even if the Presidential race was out of reach for Romney.

[Seriously?]

Damn, krazen didn't post these polls.  I wonder what their model is.  So many models, so little time.

Obama is not making TWO trips to Wisconsin a week before the election if his internals are showing a 5 or 8 lead in the state. Advantage Obama perhaps, but I am not buying this huge lead narrative.

Obama has a large enough lead nationally that I think he's beginning to take the Senate races into consideration as to where to spend his time.  Wisconsin is both the weakest of his 271 EV core and it has a close race that is at the moment a tossup that leans slightly to Baldwin.  Obama only needs 270 EV, so he can afford to spend time in firewall states such as Wisconsin and Nevada where he looks fairly certain to win but the Senate race is in doubt.  It's not so dominating a lead that he can afford to spend time in Montana and North Dakota as he can't neglect his own race, but the twofer states with close Senate races such as Virginia are definitely worth his while.

Huge enough lead? It's a flat-footed tie...

Actually he said 'large enough', not 'huge enough', but I agree that this was the only flaw in his otherwise spot-on analysis.  The lead is very narrow, and so, he's well advised to spend his time in his weakest leans.  If it helps Baldwin its just icing on the cake (though I think it is accurate to say Berkeley needs more help).

The President is camping in Ohio over the weekend. By no stretch of the imagination is either WI or OH anything other than a tossup with a slight lean to Obama right now.