CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado (user search)
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  CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado (search mode)
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Author Topic: CO: Public Policy Polling: Obama+4 in Colorado  (Read 932 times)
Seriously?
Sr. Member
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Posts: 3,029
United States


« on: November 02, 2012, 12:58:31 PM »

PPP in 2008, Obama by 10. 
Actual: Obama by 9.

Encouraging to see the gold standard with Obama up 4. 
Does Obama get to +4 with:
a) a 20-point lead with independents; or
b) a large crossover of Republicans; or
c) a huge Election Day turnout of Dems.

Because Obama is trailing in the Early Vote in CO.
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Seriously?
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,029
United States


« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2012, 01:08:38 PM »

Obama will probably win independents, they're pretty Dem-leaning in Colorado.
The poll is D+4 (40/36/24) when the Early Vote is R+2 (35/37/28).
Romney has a +1 advantage in the R/D crossover (12 Ds voting R vs 11 Rs voting D).
And R self-identification is -1.4 (36 vs. 37.4) from the Early Vote totals compiled by the Colorado SoS.

I guess the only conclusion is that in addition to a lot of self-identifying Is as D in the poll, there will be a lot more Democrats than Republicans voting on Election Day. Otherwise this poll does not match the early vote data.
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