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  FL: Mason Dixon Romney +6
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Author Topic: FL: Mason Dixon Romney +6  (Read 6999 times)
Cliffy
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« on: November 02, 2012, 10:39:33 pm »
« edited: November 02, 2012, 10:44:09 pm by Cliffy »

51-45
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/11/miami-herald-fl-poll-romney-51-obama-45-1.html#storylink=cpy#storylink=cpy
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Devils30
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2012, 10:40:50 pm »

More Mason-Dixon. If Romney was up 6 he wouldn't have been in Miami on Thursday!
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krazen1211
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2012, 10:41:20 pm »

Great news!
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2012, 10:43:53 pm »

More Mason-Dixon. If Romney was up 6 he wouldn't have been in Miami on Thursday!

Yeah, he's probably up, but if he were really up 6, he would be treating this state like NC.
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Cliffy
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« Reply #4 on: November 02, 2012, 10:44:48 pm »

More Mason-Dixon. If Romney was up 6 he wouldn't have been in Miami on Thursday!

Connie Mack baby! Wink
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #5 on: November 02, 2012, 10:44:54 pm »

M-D sure better hope they're the one right in a ton of wrong on this one. The only other pollster to ever show such a lead in FL? You guessed it: M-D, 10/10. Rassy, Angus Reid and Susq, who just released the laughable PA poll, had shown in mid month R+5. 22 other polls never showed more than R+3, and since the 27th, Obama has lead 6/11 polls run, with Romney's biggest lead being Gravis' R+3.


 Take all of this as you will.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #6 on: November 02, 2012, 10:45:20 pm »

I thought Mason-Dixon stopped polling FL?
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #7 on: November 02, 2012, 10:47:21 pm »

I thought Mason-Dixon stopped polling FL?
Must have mis-polled the support for pulling out amongst the office.
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MODOK
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« Reply #8 on: November 02, 2012, 10:47:33 pm »

More Mason-Dixon. If Romney was up 6 he wouldn't have been in Miami on Thursday!

Connie Mack baby! Wink

Yeah right, because Romney is so popular in FL he can pull that out for him. Get real.
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dirks
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« Reply #9 on: November 02, 2012, 10:47:44 pm »

despite the D+412 polls that inflate Obama in florida, Romney has led here for quite some time. Maybe not +6 as M&D says, but by at least 3. He will win the state
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Fmr. Pres. Griff
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #10 on: November 02, 2012, 10:48:00 pm »

I thought Mason-Dixon stopped polling FL?

Yeah, what happened? Did they decide they'd rather keep pushing out Republican-favored results?
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Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #11 on: November 02, 2012, 10:48:40 pm »

This is interesting and obviously pretty good news for Mittster.  Florida was starting to drift back to toss up status (from Romney's side), so they've got to be pleased to see this.  Mason Dixon is a reliable source, as well.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #12 on: November 02, 2012, 10:48:55 pm »

We're seeing a similar polling phenomenon in Florida and North Carolina. In both states, most of the polls are showing the race as a tie, with a one point or so advantage for either candidate. But then a small number of polls, again in both states, are showing Romney up by 5 or 6 points. But there are no polls showing a result in between. Strange.
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Ljube
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« Reply #13 on: November 02, 2012, 10:51:20 pm »

We're seeing a similar polling phenomenon in Florida and North Carolina. In both states, most of the polls are showing the race as a tie, with a one point or so advantage for either candidate. But then a small number of polls, again in both states, are showing Romney up by 5 or 6 points. But there are no polls showing a result in between. Strange.

This means that the right approach is to average out all polls showing NC and FL tied, then to separately average out all polls showing Romney lead and finally to make an average of the previous two averages.
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MODOK
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« Reply #14 on: November 02, 2012, 10:52:06 pm »

Mason Dixon always shows huge, outlier GOP leads then suddenly starts showing the results others are showing. I guess they are just skipping that step this time.
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krazen1211
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« Reply #15 on: November 02, 2012, 10:52:15 pm »

2004
Mason-Dixon | 10/27-29 625 LV 4.0 49 45  Bush +4

2008
Mason-Dixon   10/29 - 10/30   625 LV   4.0   49   47   Obama +2


Not too shabby, eh?
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Cliffy
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« Reply #16 on: November 02, 2012, 11:10:03 pm »

Mason Dixon always shows huge, outlier GOP leads then suddenly starts showing the results others are showing. I guess they are just skipping that step this time.

Jay Cost ‏@JayCostTWS
If there is anything that demonstrates how different assumptions yield different results, it is Marist vs Mason Dixon in FL.

and PPP and SUSA.....
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Devils30
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« Reply #17 on: November 02, 2012, 11:13:07 pm »

What % white is the MD sample? Florida is almost guaranteed to have a decreasing white % each cycle, although how much is always a question.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #18 on: November 02, 2012, 11:19:02 pm »

Is this where I say Junk Poll because I don't like the result?

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Fargobison
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« Reply #19 on: November 02, 2012, 11:21:21 pm »

What % white is the MD sample? Florida is almost guaranteed to have a decreasing white % each cycle, although how much is always a question.

It did increase by 1% in 2008 if you believe the exit polls.
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Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
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« Reply #20 on: November 02, 2012, 11:21:27 pm »

Is this where I say Junk Poll because I don't like the result?


No, it's where you largely distrust the poll because it doesn't come close to connecting with 95% of the polls we've seen.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #21 on: November 02, 2012, 11:24:26 pm »

I thought Mason-Dixon stopped polling FL?

Yeah, what happened? Did they decide they'd rather keep pushing out Republican-favored results?
Mason Dixon stopped polling. The Florida Poll did not. M/D got paid.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #22 on: November 02, 2012, 11:51:54 pm »

Great news!
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #23 on: November 03, 2012, 12:24:52 am »

More Mason-Dixon. If Romney was up 6 he wouldn't have been in Miami on Thursday!

Connie Mack baby! Wink
Romney isn't in a position where he can hold campaign events that only serve to boost Senatorial candidates.
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Cliffy
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« Reply #24 on: November 03, 2012, 12:45:10 am »

More Mason-Dixon. If Romney was up 6 he wouldn't have been in Miami on Thursday!

Connie Mack baby! Wink
Romney isn't in a position where he can hold campaign events that only serve to boost Senatorial candidates.

Prob not, j/k.  He's be an idiot to not visit FL here at the end, it's not like it's Texas.
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