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  FL: Mason Dixon Romney +6
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Author Topic: FL: Mason Dixon Romney +6  (Read 7212 times)
True Federalist
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« Reply #25 on: November 03, 2012, 01:44:02 am »

More Mason-Dixon. If Romney was up 6 he wouldn't have been in Miami on Thursday!

Connie Mack baby! Wink
Romney isn't in a position where he can hold campaign events that only serve to boost Senatorial candidates.

Prob not, j/k.  He's be an idiot to not visit FL here at the end, it's not like it's Texas.

As someone born, but not raised in Florida, I can say I'm awfully glad it's not like Texas.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #26 on: November 03, 2012, 02:51:49 am »

I would be extremely surprised if Romney were to win Florida by this much. While I wasn't surprised that Bush won Florida in 2004, the margin was definitely more than I expected. This poll is definitely not in sync with the consensus, so they are either geniuses or they will lose considerable credibility on November 7th. If this is what the campaigns thought as true, I don't think you would have the President coming back before the election, nor would President Clinton have had five rallies in the state yesterday. Personally, I think Florida will come down to the ground game.
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The Voice of America
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« Reply #27 on: November 03, 2012, 03:18:08 am »

New Poll: Florida President by Mason-Dixon on 2012-11-02

Summary: D: 45%, R: 51%, I: 0%, U: 0%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Umengus
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« Reply #28 on: November 03, 2012, 04:47:57 am »

some things...

D +5 (D 44% R 39 % I 17%)

but Obama at only 80 % with democrats.

Romney leads Indies by 6.

Job approv: only 43 %

So maybe a anti-obama bias (2-3 p).

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ReelectCarterMondale!
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« Reply #29 on: November 03, 2012, 07:46:02 am »

Junk poll!
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #30 on: November 03, 2012, 07:51:43 am »

Yeah, we'll see if Obama only gets 80% of Florida Democrats on election day...
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Wonkish1
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« Reply #31 on: November 03, 2012, 12:03:40 pm »
« Edited: November 03, 2012, 12:05:41 pm by Wonkish1 »

some things...

D +5 (D 44% R 39 % I 17%)

but Obama at only 80 % with democrats.

Romney leads Indies by 6.

Job approv: only 43 %

So maybe a anti-obama bias (2-3 p).



Just an FYI,

D 44 and R 39 is obviously the results of a leaner question which is not the same as its going to be asked by exit polls. Basically, the exit polls will ask which party do they identify with and garner results with both parties in the 30's. A leaner question is worded with the use of either the 5 "Dem, Lean Dem, Independent, etc." or a worded question that asks the person to specify the party they may lean towards.

With the different wording you'll get more barely Dems and barely GOP and the percent of Dems that favor Obama will go down relative to a poll that doesn't use a leaner question.

If you standardized the poll back to a non leaner party id question the results would likely change to Obama getting ~87% of Dems which is about right. And that would be with a party ID sample of probably around D 38, R 33.

So once you take into account the way this polls party ID was almost definitely worded the crosstabs looks about right.
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Orion0
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« Reply #32 on: November 03, 2012, 01:06:25 pm »


Quite sad that your very first post is nothing more than shallow partisan hackery.

I am having trouble digesting a Florida +2obama and a +6romney on the same day. Can't be both..
No matter what happens on tuesday, a lot of pollsters are going to be very very wrong.
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NVGonzalez
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« Reply #33 on: November 03, 2012, 04:54:43 pm »


Whoa. I didn't post this in this thread, I remember posting it on the NBC poll only. What the hell?

Anyways, yeah probably junk.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #34 on: November 08, 2012, 01:31:19 am »

Hmm.

Off by about 7 ...
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #35 on: November 08, 2012, 01:31:55 am »

Mason-Dixon = worse than Zogby.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #36 on: November 08, 2012, 03:41:28 am »

They also said Minnesota was Obama +3. Haha.
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #37 on: November 08, 2012, 04:11:10 pm »


Quite sad that your very first post is nothing more than shallow partisan hackery.

I am having trouble digesting a Florida +2obama and a +6romney on the same day. Can't be both..
No matter what happens on tuesday, a lot of pollsters are going to be very very wrong.
"Shallow partisan hackery",they said...
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DemPGH
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« Reply #38 on: November 08, 2012, 05:37:00 pm »

Ha, I don't feel bad Monday morning quarterbacking / coaching this one, because it was obvious that this was pretty bad along with their +7 one.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #39 on: November 09, 2012, 02:24:01 am »

Remember guys, Mason-Dixon is the Gold Standard in Florida.
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Secret Cavern Survivor
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« Reply #40 on: November 09, 2012, 02:32:55 am »

Remember guys, Mason-Dixon is the Gold Standard in Florida.

This and their McCaskill+2 poll have ruined their credibility for long.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #41 on: November 09, 2012, 03:02:31 am »
« Edited: November 09, 2012, 03:05:39 am by Lief »

Remember guys, Mason-Dixon is the Gold Standard in Florida.

This and their McCaskill+2 poll have ruined their credibility for long.

And their Rehberg +4 poll! And of course their poll showing Matheson losing by 12%.
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Franzl
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« Reply #42 on: November 09, 2012, 06:08:39 am »

Remember guys, Mason-Dixon is the Gold Standard in Florida.

Too bad Sam Spade doesn't post here anymore.
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Brittain33
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« Reply #43 on: November 09, 2012, 07:52:56 am »

Remember guys, Mason-Dixon is the Gold Standard in Florida.

"Trust no poll but Mason-Dixon.
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wan
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« Reply #44 on: November 09, 2012, 12:46:07 pm »
« Edited: November 09, 2012, 12:54:59 pm by wan »


Hey what happen you said romney was going to win florida. I thought mason dixon was a great poll. Deposit that million dollars back in my account. Florida was won by Obama. And mason dixon had rehberg winning the senate seat in MT. Deposit that 500,000 back in my account. Tester won that seat. LOL......................... Quit getting your news from Drudge,Foxnews,Redstate &Realclearpolitics.

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