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  OR: Public Policy Polling: Despite Romney's inroads, OR leans Obama
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Author Topic: OR: Public Policy Polling: Despite Romney's inroads, OR leans Obama  (Read 3985 times)
Miles
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« on: November 02, 2012, 11:45:20 pm »

New Poll: Oregon President by Public Policy Polling on 2012-11-02

Summary: D: 52%, R: 46%, I: 0%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2012, 11:49:12 pm »

Weird that Obama is doing a lot worse in Oregon than in Washington.
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Fmr. Pres. Duke
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« Reply #2 on: November 02, 2012, 11:50:35 pm »

Where are my hipsters in Portlandia at?! Obviously not voting this time around
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Spamage
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« Reply #3 on: November 02, 2012, 11:53:36 pm »

 Romney's had 0 chance in Oregon from the start, Portland and Eugene are just too liberal for him to win.
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Cliffy
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2012, 12:00:46 am »

So what you're saying is if PPP has it by 6 he has a chance.
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Devils30
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2012, 12:02:07 am »

The mail in ballots might make it too early to call at 11 PM. Will probably know by 2 am but could drag on just to be safe. Obama has it obviously.
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Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2012, 12:08:34 am »

Weird that Obama is doing a lot worse in Oregon than in Washington.

Weird?  How?  Oregon has always been less Democratic than either Washington or California given it is more rural than either state.  Portland is its largest city -and it's smaller than Seattle. 
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Miles
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2012, 12:11:41 am »

So what you're saying is if PPP has it by 6 he has a chance.

No...

What I'm saying is that while Romney has performed well relative to McCain, Obama is still quite solid in OR.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2012, 12:22:31 am »

Weird that Obama is doing a lot worse in Oregon than in Washington.

Weird?  How?  Oregon has always been less Democratic than either Washington or California given it is more rural than either state.  Portland is its largest city -and it's smaller than Seattle. 

Not in 2008 though. Obama won Washington by 17% and Oregon by 16%. This year it looks like Obama's lead in Washington is only down a little bit, but has been nearly cut in half in Oregon.
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Grand Mufti of Northern Virginia
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2012, 12:24:46 am »

Weird that Obama is doing a lot worse in Oregon than in Washington.

Weird?  How?  Oregon has always been less Democratic than either Washington or California given it is more rural than either state.  Portland is its largest city -and it's smaller than Seattle. 

Not in 2008 though. Obama won Washington by 17% and Oregon by 16%. This year it looks like Obama's lead in Washington is only down a little bit, but has been nearly cut in half in Oregon.

Then what we are seeing is a return to the norm -2008 was an exceptional year with exceptional circumstances.  One that cannot be replicated. 
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Cliffy
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2012, 12:43:35 am »

uhhhhh, you know that the lib polls are banking on it being just like 08 or better right?


Weird that Obama is doing a lot worse in Oregon than in Washington.

Weird?  How?  Oregon has always been less Democratic than either Washington or California given it is more rural than either state.  Portland is its largest city -and it's smaller than Seattle. 

Not in 2008 though. Obama won Washington by 17% and Oregon by 16%. This year it looks like Obama's lead in Washington is only down a little bit, but has been nearly cut in half in Oregon.

Then what we are seeing is a return to the norm -2008 was an exceptional year with exceptional circumstances.  One that cannot be replicated. 
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2012, 01:38:27 am »

Also Oregon was hit relatively hard by the financial crisis and has been slow by even the anemic standards of this recovery to recover.  If the race had ended up being to Romney's advantage instead of Obama's we would have seen both campaigns spending quality time there.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2012, 02:02:52 am »

I am surprised that Oregon is this close. I would have imagined around a 10% win or so for the President. From what I understand about the state, it shouldn't really have major swings. I remember reading that it has some of the most liberal Democrats and some of the most conservative Republicans.

For those that want to attack PPP, they were very accurate in Oregon in 2008. They called it 57-42 when it actually went 57-41.
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2012, 02:35:14 am »

I am surprised that Oregon is this close. I would have imagined around a 10% win or so for the President. From what I understand about the state, it shouldn't really have major swings. I remember reading that it has some of the most liberal Democrats and some of the most conservative Republicans.

For those that want to attack PPP, they were very accurate in Oregon in 2008. They called it 57-42 when it actually went 57-41.
It's very easy to be accurate when your candidate hits some of the assumptions you are making. Obama hit those turnout numbers in '08 both as a percentage of Party ID and geography.

With that said, I do think the regular PPP polls are a little more accurate than the sauced polls for that "progressive" Obama health care PAC. This was a regular PPP poll.

This particular poll accurately reflects the McCain vote in '08, but undersamples the Obama vote with 9% not remembering (perhaps Obama voters with buyers' remorse). It also is D+16, when the '08 exit polls were D+11.

While I don't think Romney is winning Oregon by any means, my guess is that you're looking at about a 4-to-6 point Obama win, more likely on the outer range of that number.
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2012, 02:49:25 am »

I didn't think OR would be this close according to PPP.  All that can be said is expect the OR county map to have sharp blue and sharp red between the Cascades.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2012, 03:06:01 am »

I am surprised that Oregon is this close. I would have imagined around a 10% win or so for the President. From what I understand about the state, it shouldn't really have major swings. I remember reading that it has some of the most liberal Democrats and some of the most conservative Republicans.

For those that want to attack PPP, they were very accurate in Oregon in 2008. They called it 57-42 when it actually went 57-41.
It's very easy to be accurate when your candidate hits some of the assumptions you are making. Obama hit those turnout numbers in '08 both as a percentage of Party ID and geography.

With that said, I do think the regular PPP polls are a little more accurate than the sauced polls for that "progressive" Obama health care PAC. This was a regular PPP poll.

This particular poll accurately reflects the McCain vote in '08, but undersamples the Obama vote with 9% not remembering (perhaps Obama voters with buyers' remorse). It also is D+16, when the '08 exit polls were D+11.

While I don't think Romney is winning Oregon by any means, my guess is that you're looking at about a 4-to-6 point Obama win, more likely on the outer range of that number.

I don't believe PPP weights their polls by partisan ID. I thought the idea of weighting by party has been thoroughly discredited by now. Even if you were to account for that, this poll is D+4 (compared with 2008's exit poll of D+9). Party ID tends to be more fluid in polls, especially this year with less Republicans and more Republican-leaning Independents. This poll has less Democrats and more Republican-friendly Independents. That's hardly the result of being Democratic hacks. If anything, you should look at ideology (conservative/liberal/moderate) and racial demographics when weighting the electorate. Those don't tend to move around much (although those weren't reported in this poll).

I think Obama will do better than this come Election Day, but it'll still be considerably closer than 2008. I have a hard time believing that Oregon will be that much more Republican-leaning than Washington.
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« Reply #16 on: November 03, 2012, 03:48:20 am »

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I think there's a divergence between the PPP polls for the political PAC and their regular polling. You would think they'd want to control the Party ID for the PAC polls if the PAC poll's purpose is to advocate that their guy has the lead.

With that said, it's hard to tell PPP's methodology. There is no methodology statement anywhere on any of their polls and the cross-tabs show percentages as opposed to raw data.

You are correct on the +4. I think I had an older poll up. This one is closer to the general reality though. It should end up in the O+4 to O+6 range at the end of the day.

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politicallefty
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« Reply #17 on: November 03, 2012, 04:26:59 am »

I think there's a divergence between the PPP polls for the political PAC and their regular polling. You would think they'd want to control the Party ID for the PAC polls if the PAC poll's purpose is to advocate that their guy has the lead.

With that said, it's hard to tell PPP's methodology. There is no methodology statement anywhere on any of their polls and the cross-tabs show percentages as opposed to raw data.

I see no reason why they would compromise their integrity by weighting their result to please their sponsor. Thought I can't say for sure, but I'm fairly sure most independent polling outfits don't skew their results for their sponsors. I also cannot say that I know their methodology either, but they were extraordinarily accurate in 2008. It doesn't really matter if they show percentages or raw data if they are not weighting. You can easily figure it out.

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Well, I'll respectfully disagree with you on the end result. I think this poll represents Obama's floor, with him somewhat outperforming, although perhaps not to double-digits. It'll still be within the margin of error.
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« Reply #18 on: November 03, 2012, 06:30:55 am »

OR might end up having one of the biggest anti-Obama swings in the country. Weird.

I understand the anti-Obama swing in Connecticut, I don't fully understand it here (but I'm sure what Ernest mentioned is an important factor).
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bgwah
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« Reply #19 on: November 03, 2012, 01:59:46 pm »

I guess it's kind of surprising. But Gordon Smith always did pretty well in Oregon, and he's basically identical to Mitt Romney.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #20 on: November 03, 2012, 02:04:41 pm »

This poll will probably be off by about 3-5%.

I expect Obama to win by 9-11.
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dirks
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« Reply #21 on: November 03, 2012, 04:09:11 pm »

Has Romney even tried to make inroads in Oregon? I don't think he or Ryan have ever set foot in the state. Being within 6 is a bonus here. Maybe Romney will creep a bit closer but Obama will carry the state 51-47 or so
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« Reply #22 on: November 03, 2012, 05:07:02 pm »

Obama will still win, but Romney will hold him to single digits. It'll probably end up being a 52-47-1 split.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #23 on: November 08, 2012, 01:25:22 am »

This poll will probably be off by about 3-5%.

I expect Obama to win by 9-11.

Quoted for the truth.
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