IN-Rasmussen: Romney+9

[Tender Branson]

52-43 Romney

Link

[pbrower2a]

52-43 Romney

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/platinum/election_2012_state_polls/indiana/crosstabs_2012_indiana_president_november_1_2012

Republicans cannot win nationally while winning Indiana by less than 10%. Rasmussen is one of the most R-friendly pollsters around.  Although President Obama is not going to win Indiana, Rasmussen has shown Romney up as high as 14 points ahead.

The Senatorial candidate of the Republican Party may be soiling the Republican brand this year.

[Umengus]

52-43 Romney

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/platinum/election_2012_state_polls/indiana/crosstabs_2012_indiana_president_november_1_2012

Republicans cannot win nationally while winning Indiana by less than 10%.

Why ? it's a 9 % shift compared to 2008. Enough to win at national level.

[politicallefty]

52-43 Romney

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/platinum/election_2012_state_polls/indiana/crosstabs_2012_indiana_president_november_1_2012

Republicans cannot win nationally while winning Indiana by less than 10%.

Why ? it's a 9 % shift compared to 2008. Enough to win at national level.

I think it is the assumption of most to assume that Indiana will swing a couple points more Republican than the country as a whole (i.e. the trend will be more Republican). It's probably something of a correction compared to the margin and swing in 2008.

[pbrower2a]

52-43 Romney

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/platinum/election_2012_state_polls/indiana/crosstabs_2012_indiana_president_november_1_2012

Republicans cannot win nationally while winning Indiana by less than 10%.

Why ? it's a 9 % shift compared to 2008. Enough to win at national level.

This is a more 'normal' year in Indiana in the Presidential race because the D nominee has spent little time there and has not built or maintained a political apparatus. A 9% shift nationwide would win for Romney.  Romney winning the state by only 9% is consistent with R losses in 1960, 1976, 1992, and 1996 when the Democrat didn't have early media penetration, had no connections to the state,  and made few appearnaces. 

[Stranger in a strange land]

Romney will win IN, but it won't be a blowout, and he probably won't win it by double digits.