Mathematically, Obama has 431 ways to win; Romney has 76; tied college 5

[Joe Republic]

Thanks to the New York Times:  http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

Excluding all 'decided' states from the equation and leaving only the nine undecided states, the odds are very much in Obama's favor.

[Ljube]

True. But Romney still has a chance. I'm hoping and praying he succeeds.

[memphis]

Not all ways are equally likely though. States don't fit into a binary pattern of either 100% safe or a 50/50 split.

[alexmanu]

True. But Romney still has a chance. I'm hoping and praying he succeeds.

Like that's gonna change the reality of things!.... All that needs to be looked right now are the swing states and with the Jeep comments in Ohio Romney has shot himself in the foot and Obama is leading there. He is also leading in Florida. If he gets one of those states he's pretty much won anyway so hasta la vista Mitt!

[Orion0]

True. But Romney still has a chance. I'm hoping and praying he succeeds.

Like that's gonna change the reality of things!.... All that needs to be looked right now are the swing states and with the Jeep comments in Ohio Romney has shot himself in the foot and Obama is leading there. He is also leading in Florida. If he gets one of those states he's pretty much won anyway so hasta la vista Mitt!

Your disrespect for the religious is very apparent.

Also: Obama is only leading in Florida sometimes (and usually with dubious polls at that), and I doubt it'll go democrat come Tuesday.

[alexmanu]

True. But Romney still has a chance. I'm hoping and praying he succeeds.

Like that's gonna change the reality of things!.... All that needs to be looked right now are the swing states and with the Jeep comments in Ohio Romney has shot himself in the foot and Obama is leading there. He is also leading in Florida. If he gets one of those states he's pretty much won anyway so hasta la vista Mitt!

Your disrespect for the religious is very apparent.

Also: Obama is only leading in Florida sometimes (and usually with dubious polls at that), and I doubt it'll go democrat come Tuesday.

Not disrespectful, simply honest.

Also, even if Florida goes red (which is looking less and less likely) it'll be irrelevant because Obama looks nearly certain to win Ohio and that'll pretty much seal the deal.

[Joe Republic]

Your disrespect for the religious is very apparent.

Let's be honest; prayer is fast approaching the only thing Republicans have left in this election.

Also: Obama is only leading in Florida sometimes (and usually with dubious polls at that), and I doubt it'll go democrat come Tuesday.

Okay, let's put Florida in Romney's column.  That leaves 176 paths to victory for Obama, and 75 for Romney.

[Ljube]

Your disrespect for the religious is very apparent.

Let's be honest; prayer is fast approaching the only thing Republicans have left in this election.

Also: Obama is only leading in Florida sometimes (and usually with dubious polls at that), and I doubt it'll go democrat come Tuesday.

Okay, let's put Florida in Romney's column.  That leaves 176 paths to victory for Obama, and 75 for Romney.

Prayer won’t hurt.

[Joe Republic]

Prayer won’t hurt.

Won't help either, but whatever you need to do to improve your confidence, I guess.

[Orion0]

Prayer won’t hurt.

Won't help either, but whatever you need to do to improve your confidence, I guess.

Say that in front of a mosque with a megaphone. I bet you couldn't/wouldn't

Wow. Won't even touch that one.
You sir are beyond reproachful.
Then again the godless show time and again their blatant disrespect for religion, something they inherently do not understand.

[Phony Moderate]

Prayer won’t hurt.

Won't help either, but whatever you need to do to improve your confidence, I guess.

Wow. Won't even touch that one.
You sir are beyond reproachful.
Then again the godless show time and again their blatant disrespect for religion, something they inherently do not understand.
Say that in front of a mosque with a megaphone. I bet you couldn't/wouldn't

Why would he want to go to a mosque and say "Wow. Won't even touch that one.
You sir are beyond reproachful.
Then again the godless show time and again their blatant disrespect for religion, something they inherently do not understand."?

[Joe Republic]

You're new here, so you may not have discovered that we have a board for discussing religion.  Feel free to visit it and promote the merits of prayer on a political candidate's chances of victory to your heart's content.

This board however, and particularly this thread, is for discussing the 2012 election.

[Rules for me, but not for thee]

Hoping for the tie for S&Gs

[memphis]

How dare Joe question religion? Truly an awful, awful person....

[Orion0]

You're new here, so you may not have discovered that we have a board for discussing religion.  Feel free to visit it and promote the merits of prayer on a political candidate's chances of victory to your heart's content.

This board however, and particularly this thread, is for discussing the 2012 election.

I notice that you don't post in that area, yet are quick to discuss it here as well. Forgive me for not having 20000 posts such as yourself, But if my posts are unwarranted here, then so are yours and alexmanu's

How dare Joe question religion? Truly an awful, awful person....

Question all you want, but mocking someone's prayer is not simple questioning.


Anyways no one is really discussing the mathematics, otherwise we'd also be looking at the 25-40% chance that Romney still has to win instead of saying

Let's be honest; prayer is fast approaching the only thing Republicans have left in this election.

[Joe Republic]

25-40%?  You wish!  Silver now has it at 16.3%.

[Orion0]

25-40%?  You wish!  Silver now has it at 16.3%.

Sure, pick a partisan. The guy is still unproven, a monkey could've predicted 49/50 states in 08. If it was alllll over he would say 100%, but he won't because there's still a decent chance Romney will pull it out. Especially if the electorate differs in a major way from 2008 turnout.

[Yank2133]

25-40%?  You wish!  Silver now has it at 16.3%.

Sure, pick a partisan. The guy is still unproven, a monkey could've predicted 49/50 states in 08. If it was alllll over he would say 100%, but he won't because there's still a decent chance Romney will pull it out. Especially if the electorate differs in a major way from 2008 turnout.

Before blasting him, you might want to read up on how his model actually works.

[Orion0]

25-40%?  You wish!  Silver now has it at 16.3%.

Sure, pick a partisan. The guy is still unproven, a monkey could've predicted 49/50 states in 08. If it was alllll over he would say 100%, but he won't because there's still a decent chance Romney will pull it out. Especially if the electorate differs in a major way from 2008 turnout.

Because that isn't how probabilities work, genius.

Before blasting him, you might want to read up on how his model actually works.

Sorry. 99%. But whatevs, you eschew me for my math yet fail to see the serious flaws in his weighting of certain firms over others.

[Ljube]

25-40%?  You wish!  Silver now has it at 16.3%.

16.3% is still decent.
Keep your spirits up!

[Yank2133]

25-40%?  You wish!  Silver now has it at 16.3%.

Sure, pick a partisan. The guy is still unproven, a monkey could've predicted 49/50 states in 08. If it was alllll over he would say 100%, but he won't because there's still a decent chance Romney will pull it out. Especially if the electorate differs in a major way from 2008 turnout.

Because that isn't how probabilities work, genius.

Before blasting him, you might want to read up on how his model actually works.

Sorry. 99%. But whatevs, you eschew me for my math yet fail to see the serious flaws in his weighting of certain firms over others.

How does is it have serious flaws?

Some firms have left leaning house effects, while others have right leaning house effect and Silver uses his model to adjust for that. If Silver's numbers were such an outlier it would not matchup with the other models (ex. Wang's, RCP, TPM, pollster etc.)

This isn't unskewedpolls......

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

True. But Romney still has a chance. I'm hoping and praying he succeeds.

Lol

[Torie]

Thanks to the New York Times:  http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

Excluding all 'decided' states from the equation and leaving only the nine undecided states, the odds are very much in Obama's favor.

Seems like spam to me. It must ignore correlations between states in swings for example. And we won't know who has voted until they vote. That is what this election is all about, and it is driving the pollsters crazy. Sometimes statistics only get you so far.  They deal well with the known - not so well with the unknown. My wild guess is that Obama has about a 60% of winning because of that.

[John_Engle]

This Is silly
Mathematically don't vote, the People vote

[Phony Moderate]

This Is silly
Mathematically don't vote, the People vote

But do scientifically, historically and geographically vote?