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  Ipsos-Reuters Tracking (Day 3): CO: O+1; FL: R+1; OH: O+4; VA: O+2
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Author Topic: Ipsos-Reuters Tracking (Day 3): CO: O+1; FL: R+1; OH: O+4; VA: O+2  (Read 2249 times)
cinyc
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« on: November 03, 2012, 08:33:22 pm »
« edited: November 05, 2012, 09:44:35 pm by cinyc »

Ipsos-Reuters State Tracking Polls
In alphabetical order:

Colorado
Romney 47%
Obama 45%
None/Other 4%
Don't Know/Refused 4%

November 1-3; 973 LV; MoE +/-3.6%

Florida
Romney 47%
Obama 47%
None/Other 2%
Don't Know/Refused 5%

November 1-3; 946 LV; MoE +/-3.6%

Ohio
Obama 46%
Romney 45%
None/Other 3%
Don't Know/Refused 6%

November 1-3; 1,031 LV; MoE +/-3.5%

Virginia
Obama 48%
Romney 45%
None/Other 2%
Don't Know/Refused 5%

November 1-3; 947 LV; MoE +/-3.6%

The caption of the release says "state-level election tracking: 11.3.12".  This might mean that we will get updates tomorrow and Monday nights.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2012, 08:40:48 pm »

Bad sample for Obama somewhere?

It's ridiculous that 'bad sample' (in this context) is even a relevant phrase at this point. Having tracking polls the weekend before the election is stupid.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2012, 08:41:07 pm »

Today hasn't been as bad of a polling day for Romney as the last few were. I think a Romney victory on Tuesday is still very conceivable if undecideds break towards him.
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dirks
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2012, 08:43:19 pm »

wow these are all over the place. Ipsos-Reuters has a democrat lean so let's keep that in mind

I think Colorado has made a final turn towards Romney. He will win that state

I don't think Virginia is Obama +3. That's kind of silly. Michael Barone has that going to Romney and I think I'll side with him. He's the one with all the contacts and being fed all the internals

Ohio...perhaps. Obama knocked down to 46%...Romney not rising either.
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J. J.
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2012, 08:46:30 pm »

Their polls a D + 2.9 house effect.  This is a good poll for Romney. 
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
Nathan
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2012, 08:47:33 pm »

Ohio...perhaps. Obama knocked down to 46%...Romney not rising either.

The oddness of the idea that Ohio is 9% undecided or other at this point inclines me to be particularly skeptical about that.
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Ty440
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2012, 08:50:17 pm »

Ohio...perhaps. Obama knocked down to 46%...Romney not rising either.

The oddness of the idea that Ohio is 9% undecided or other at this point inclines me to be particularly skeptical about that.

University of Cincinnati says Obama +2 , I.m sticking with them.

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2012, 09:17:18 pm »

Their polls a D + 2.9 house effect.  This is a good poll for Romney. 

Internet poll though.
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J. J.
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2012, 09:20:06 pm »

Their polls a D + 2.9 house effect.  This is a good poll for Romney. 

Internet poll though.

Well, then it is not that good.  Smiley
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ajb
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2012, 10:31:26 pm »

Their polls a D + 2.9 house effect.  This is a good poll for Romney. 
Decimals! Yay!
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J. J.
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2012, 11:39:49 pm »

Their polls a D + 2.9 house effect.  This is a good poll for Romney. 
Decimals! Yay!

They are Nate Silvers'. 
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Devils30
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2012, 11:43:18 pm »

The likely registered gaps just make no sense. Especially in CO, VA.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2012, 11:47:52 pm »

Yeah....and CO is R+4 in terms of turnout....and if Obama is still only down by 2 in that case, I think that he should be fine...especially with him behind Romney with Indies by double digits.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2012, 04:06:04 am »

Still haven't come around to trusting internet polls as of yet.
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afleitch
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2012, 03:54:22 pm »

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/11/04/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE89K0A920121104?irpc=932

Obama up 4 in Ohio now according to the article.
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ajb
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2012, 04:05:51 pm »

And Colorado tied at 48, Florida tied at 46, and Obama up one in VA,  47-46. So, with the exception of VA, more signs of movement towards Obama.
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cinyc
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2012, 12:31:38 am »
« Edited: November 05, 2012, 12:37:16 am by cinyc »

Day 2:

Colorado
Romney 48% (+1)
Obama 48% (+3)
None/Other 3% (-2)
Don't Know/Refused 2% (-2)

November 2-4; 676 LV; MoE +/-4.3%

Florida
Romney 46% (-1)
Obama 46% (-1)
None/Other 4% (+2)
Don't Know/Refused 4% (-1)

November 2-4; 743 LV; MoE +/-4.1%

Ohio
Obama 48% (+2)
Romney 44% (-1)
None/Other 3% (-)
Don't Know/Refused 5% (-1)

November 2-4; 712 LV; MoE +/-4.2%

Virginia
Obama 47% (-1)
Romney 46% (+1)
None/Other 2%
Don't Know/Refused 6% (+1)

November 2-4; 662 LV; MoE +/-4.3%

For some reason, sample sizes went down and MoEs increased substantially from yesterday's tracking poll.
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cinyc
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2012, 09:51:04 pm »

Day 3:

Colorado
Obama 48% (-)
Romney 47% (-1)
None/Other 3% (-)
Don't Know/Refused 1% (-1)

November 3-5; 774 LV; MoE +/-4.0%

Florida
Romney 48% (+2)
Obama 47% (+1)
None/Other 1% (-3)
Don't Know/Refused 4% (-)

November 3-5; 769 LV; MoE +/-4.0%

Ohio
Obama 50% (+2)
Romney 46% (+2)
None/Other 1% (-2)
Don't Know/Refused 2% (-3)

November 3-5; 680 LV; MoE +/-4.3%

Virginia
Obama 48% (+1)
Romney 46% (-)
None/Other 2% (-)
Don't Know/Refused 5% (- 1)

November 3-5; 828 LV; MoE +/-3.9%
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J. J.
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2012, 09:57:07 pm »

Let's see, an Internet poll from a firm with a house effect of D+2.9. 
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