SUSA GA: Romney +6

[Yank2133]

Obama isn't winning this state, but Georgia is going to be the next VA.

http://bettergeorgia.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/SurveyNovember2012.pdf

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obama isn't winning this state, but Georgia is going to be the next VA.

The trouble with all this teleological nonsense is that you pygmies aren't actually marching anywhere.

[Cliffy]

right...lol

[Devils30]

If Romney wins GA by this, NC goes Mitt narrowly and Obama takes VA with FL a complete toss. Not quite what the GOP wants.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Though it's not as bad as the almost openly chiliastic oddness that tends to emanate from the other side even in matters of electoral prognostication, granted.

[old timey villain]

Georgia will be closer than expected this year.

1) Whites continue to drop as an overall share of the electorate, down from 63 in 2008 to 59 this year. In any other state this would be the nail in the coffin for the GOP, but about 75% of white Georgians vote Republican, so they still maintain an advantage. (for now)

2) I do (regretfully) believe Romney will lose some support due to his religion. There are some evangelicals who will be reluctant to vote for him, and might not vote at all. But it probably won't cost him any more than a point in the overall vote.

[heatmaster]

Georgia on your mind, you are simply whistling Dixie.

[old timey villain]

Georgia on your mind, you are simply whistling Dixie.

Not sure what you're getting at, but I've lived in Georgia all my life, so I think I know my own state.

[Skill and Chance]

Romney +6 here is actually a strong argument against the EV/PV split.  This is the 2nd largest red state.  I think a more moderate D than Obama can make GA interesting in 2016-20.

[old timey villain]

Romney +6 here is actually a strong argument against the EV/PV split.  This is the 2nd largest red state.  I think a more moderate D than Obama can make GA interesting in 2016-20.

At some point choosing "the right kind of Democrat" won't even matter in Georgia. There will be enough minorities and white liberals who throw their support behind any Democratic candidate to make the state competitive.

However, if we have a Schweitzer vs Christie race in 2016, the results in Georgia will be very very interesting.

[Sasquatch]

Georgia going to be a toss up in 2016?

[Skill and Chance]

Romney +6 here is actually a strong argument against the EV/PV split.  This is the 2nd largest red state.  I think a more moderate D than Obama can make GA interesting in 2016-20.

At some point choosing "the right kind of Democrat" won't even matter in Georgia. There will be enough minorities and white liberals who throw their support behind any Democratic candidate to make the state competitive.

However, if we have a Schweitzer vs Christie race in 2016, the results in Georgia will be very very interesting.

Thing is, the Clinton coalition really isn't tenable anymore.  Clinton himself would likely lose all of the Appalachian/Mississippi Valley below Iowa states if he was running this year.  A libertarian-flavored D that could lock down VA and CO would be the better bet to play in GA and NC.   

[pbrower2a]

Romney +6 here is actually a strong argument against the EV/PV split.  This is the 2nd largest red state.  I think a more moderate D than Obama can make GA interesting in 2016-20.

Tweak:

Romney +6 here is actually a strong argument against the EV/PV split.  This is the 2nd largest red state.  I think someone less a d@mnyankee a more moderate D than Obama can make GA interesting in 2016-20.

[Adam Griffin]

Great news! I find it strange that multiple polling firms are polling Georgia all of a sudden. If Georgia is Romney +6, then NC is a toss-up at this point - although still more in Romney's favor.

In case you missed it, check out my post on how whites are now less than 59% of registered voters in Georgia. Also, here's a calculation of how the vote would break down this year based on 20 different scenarios:



I also have to disagree with S&K that Clinton couldn't win Georgia. I had a discussion with my mother earlier today about Clinton; she said she'd vote for her - after voting for McCain and Romney. Really, any white candidate could probably win Georgia at this point. All you really need to do is shave 5 points or so off the northern, most conservative part of the state. When you look at how much Obama bombed throughout far north Georgia in 2008, you begin to see that race is a factor here and that a generic white Democrat would be able to reclaim most of that lost vote fairly easily.

[Adam Griffin]

Wait a minute, this isn't a SUSA poll. This is the same 20/20 Insight poll that was posted yesterday. Darn.

[old timey villain]

Georgia going to be a toss up in 2016?

Geez, I don't know. I hope so. You'll have to travel to different parts of Georgia to know the real story.

I can definitely see hope for the Democrats when I'm in places like Athens (UGA), Atlanta and its hip upscale neighborhoods and the diversifying inner suburbs. There is a growing sense of progressive values, respect for diversity and a general distrust of our GOP dominated state Government.

Of course those are enclaves, and the rest of Georgia is still pretty rural and very conservative. The white people seem to have grown even more conservative and have dug their heels pretty firmly into the red clay when it comes to defending their values and their way of life. They hate Atlanta and they hate the federal government even more. There are still plenty of black people in those areas which is why some counties in south Georgia are blue/competitive. But overall, it's a very religious and traditional culture.

The liberal areas continue to grow while the conservative areas stagnate, so there will be a shift in the next few years. If the Georgia Democratic party can get their act together, wipe away their loser mentality and field good Dems who appeal to the urban core and the suburbs then things will get better for them.

Tossup by 2016? Quite possible.

[old timey villain]

I also found this article about future growth for Atlanta

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/08/america-fastest-growing-cities_n_1751549.html

Metro Atlanta population 2012: 5.4 Million

Metro Atlanta population 2024: 9.1 Million

Pretty mind boggling.