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Author Topic: Susquehanna Polling/Tribune-Review: PA: Tie  (Read 4620 times)
cinyc
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« on: November 03, 2012, 11:06:58 pm »

Susquehanna Polling & Research/Tribune-Review Poll
Romney 47%
Obama 47%

October 29-31; 800 LV; MoE +/- 3.46%
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Ty440
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« Reply #1 on: November 03, 2012, 11:12:44 pm »

Romney is less likely to win PA then  Obama is FL
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pa2011
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« Reply #2 on: November 03, 2012, 11:13:29 pm »

That poll was already posted, yesterday, I think.
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Beat-‘Em-All Beto
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« Reply #3 on: November 03, 2012, 11:14:52 pm »

That's actually a 4 point Obama bounce from their last poll.
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cinyc
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« Reply #4 on: November 03, 2012, 11:15:53 pm »

That poll was already posted, yesterday, I think.

Impossible.  The results were just released 10 minutes ago.  Yesterday, we had a rehash of Susquehanna's last poll, an internal for the Pennsylvania Republican Party and rumors of a new poll.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #5 on: November 03, 2012, 11:16:51 pm »

That's actually a 4 point Obama bounce from their last poll.

Yeah.
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cinyc
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« Reply #6 on: November 03, 2012, 11:17:35 pm »


Their last poll was an internal for the Pennsylvania Republican Party.  There really can't be a direct comparison.
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King
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« Reply #7 on: November 03, 2012, 11:18:39 pm »


Their last poll was an internal for the Pennsylvania Republican Party.  There really can't be a direct comparison.

Both were polls by Susquehanna Polling & Research Institute.  That's my direct comparison.
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cinyc
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« Reply #8 on: November 03, 2012, 11:20:54 pm »


Their last poll was an internal for the Pennsylvania Republican Party.  There really can't be a direct comparison.

Both were polls by Susquehanna Polling & Research Institute.  That's my direct comparison.

Compare internals to public polls at your own peril - even if they are from the same pollster.  There's an agenda behind internals that isn't there for public polls.
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #9 on: November 03, 2012, 11:25:14 pm »

Bear in mind that Susquehanna has shown the best results for ROmney in PA, making even the Rasmussen polls look like they were oversampling Dems.

Examples:
Tribune-Review/Susquehanna   9/18 - 9/20   Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports   9/19 - 9/19   Obama +12

Susquehanna   10/4 - 10/6   Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports   10/9 - 10/9   Obama +5

Tribune-Review/Susquehanna   2/2 - 2/6   Romney +2
Rasmussen Reports   2/8 - 2/23   Obama +1
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King
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« Reply #10 on: November 03, 2012, 11:26:51 pm »


Their last poll was an internal for the Pennsylvania Republican Party.  There really can't be a direct comparison.

Both were polls by Susquehanna Polling & Research Institute.  That's my direct comparison.

Compare internals to public polls at your own peril - even if they are from the same pollster.  There's an agenda behind internals that isn't there for public polls.

Well, the last Susquehanna that wasn't an internal had Obama up 47-45 in early October.  Their non-internals are just as big of outliers and favorable to Republicans as their Tribune polls.  But even if you don't believe that, 47-45 to 47-47 is almost no movement.
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Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018
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« Reply #11 on: November 03, 2012, 11:28:43 pm »

Even if this poll tilts Republican, it can't be a comforting sign for the President.  Pennsylvania, I believe, closes at 8:00 pm EST.  If its not called by 9:00 pm, it could turn into a long night for Obama.

And, you can't dismiss this poll just because its a positive poll for Romney.
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pepper11
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« Reply #12 on: November 03, 2012, 11:32:06 pm »


And, you can't dismiss this poll just because its a positive poll for Romney.

Yeah you can. See recent thread on Romney lead in MN.
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Yank2133
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« Reply #13 on: November 03, 2012, 11:35:04 pm »

Even if this poll tilts Republican, it can't be a comforting sign for the President.  Pennsylvania, I believe, closes at 8:00 pm EST.  If its not called by 9:00 pm, it could turn into a long night for Obama.

And, you can't dismiss this poll just because its a positive poll for Romney.

Save the moderate heroism bullsh**t.

Obama on average leads PA by 4 points......so yeah this is a crap poll.

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J. J.
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« Reply #14 on: November 03, 2012, 11:39:01 pm »

This is far from a good firm.  Their swing is running the opposite from, well, nearly everyone. 
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #15 on: November 03, 2012, 11:39:24 pm »

Even if this poll tilts Republican, it can't be a comforting sign for the President.  Pennsylvania, I believe, closes at 8:00 pm EST.  If its not called by 9:00 pm, it could turn into a long night for Obama.

And, you can't dismiss this poll just because its a positive poll for Romney.

And you can't elevate this poll just because it is a positive poll for Romney. It's crap because it doesn't line up with any other Pennsylvania polls as of late. Get real.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2012, 04:08:17 am »

BushOklahoma is really annoying on this board.
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J. J.
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2012, 08:14:58 am »

I blanch every time I hear the words "Susquehanna Polling," unless it involves moving a boat. 
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Franzl
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2012, 09:56:53 am »

BushOklahoma is really annoying on this board.

Seriously.
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Scott
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2012, 10:03:19 am »

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DemPGH
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2012, 10:11:32 am »

Susquehanna + conservative newspaper = more PA nonsense.
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pepper11
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2012, 10:56:24 am »

Bear in mind that Susquehanna has shown the best results for ROmney in PA, making even the Rasmussen polls look like they were oversampling Dems.

Examples:
Tribune-Review/Susquehanna   9/18 - 9/20   Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports   9/19 - 9/19   Obama +12

Susquehanna   10/4 - 10/6   Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports   10/9 - 10/9   Obama +5

Tribune-Review/Susquehanna   2/2 - 2/6   Romney +2
Rasmussen Reports   2/8 - 2/23   Obama +1


Sesque was close in 08, predicting Obama + 8 as their final poll.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2012, 11:03:11 am »

Bear in mind that Susquehanna has shown the best results for ROmney in PA, making even the Rasmussen polls look like they were oversampling Dems.

Examples:
Tribune-Review/Susquehanna   9/18 - 9/20   Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports   9/19 - 9/19   Obama +12

Susquehanna   10/4 - 10/6   Obama +2
Rasmussen Reports   10/9 - 10/9   Obama +5

Tribune-Review/Susquehanna   2/2 - 2/6   Romney +2
Rasmussen Reports   2/8 - 2/23   Obama +1


Sesque was close in 08, predicting Obama + 8 as their final poll.
Don't let something like history -- that Susquehanna knows Pennsylvania -- get in the way of a good narrative, Comrade. Baghdad Barry says that Obama is leading in Pennsylvania. It must be so. A pox on Susquehanna and the conservative Pittsburgh Tribune/Review for saying otherwise. Valerie Jarrett will get her revenge.
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King
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2012, 01:44:26 pm »

Predicting Obama +8 when the final is Obama +11 is not close enough, especially when used to argue a state Obama is probably only going to win by 5 is tied.
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pepper11
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2012, 02:09:21 pm »

Predicting Obama +8 when the final is Obama +11 is not close enough, especially when used to argue a state Obama is probably only going to win by 5 is tied.

If a pollster does not get the exact margin you discredit them? Marist was off by 3 as well in PA (other direction). Do you discredit all their polls for this reason as well?
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