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  Susquehanna Polling/Tribune-Review: PA: Tie
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Author Topic: Susquehanna Polling/Tribune-Review: PA: Tie  (Read 4628 times)
Scott Inman (D) OK Gov 2018
BushOklahoma
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« Reply #25 on: November 04, 2012, 02:12:31 pm »

Mods, can we combine this thread with the thread of like topic located at:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=163861.0.  Please?

Any room we can save on the server will benefit us two nights from now.
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King
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« Reply #26 on: November 05, 2012, 02:29:35 am »

Predicting Obama +8 when the final is Obama +11 is not close enough, especially when used to argue a state Obama is probably only going to win by 5 is tied.

If a pollster does not get the exact margin you discredit them? Marist was off by 3 as well in PA (other direction). Do you discredit all their polls for this reason as well?

I'm not discrediting Susquehanna.   What I'm saying is that it doesn't prove they're accurate.   Not a single real pollster (Strategic Vision was proven to be fake) missed the train that Obama won Pennsylvania.  No real pollster could have possibly be wrong.  He won the election by 10.5 points.  

If they predicted it with precision, then maybe you could sway me that this poll could be right.  Missing it by 3 is not precision.  They predicted a solid D state in 2008 to go D.   As far as I'm concerned, they are an outlier among a dozen other pollsters who were "good in 2008" on PA and say PA is Obama's.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #27 on: November 09, 2012, 03:12:15 am »

Nope ...
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