OH: Columbus Dispatch: Obama +2

[Fargobison]

Obama 50
Romney 48

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/04/dispatch-poll-shows-ohio-a-toss-up.html

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

He's at 50. I'm good.

[Yank2133]

50% safe.

[Ty440]

I have been waiting for them to weigh in.

[Comrade Funk]

Bradley effect....Romney up 5 or so.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Too many Democrats, sampled they were.

[Sasquatch]

[Yank2133]

This poll is also fairly dated as well.

[Cliffy]

40%+ sounds real scientific, but I digress.

1. They are off by 30% on the early vote or intentionals (28% are in now), note: there is only 2 days left of early vote.

2. Obama's big D counties are down significantly vs. 2008, he's getting his butt kicked

3. Romne is up by quite a bit with election day voters (you only have 2 days)

So reality in the returns shows Romney is winning Ohio and will easily.

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[cinyc]

This poll is also fairly dated as well.

It's a mail poll that in theory has no business working but somehow ends up near the mark every year.  The dates are October 24-November 3.

[Devils30]

The methodology is questionable despite it's ok result. Did have wild swings earlier this year from tied to Obama up 9, neither of which at the time seemed legit.

[J. J.]

I'm glad to know Alf Landon will win.  (This is a mail-in poll.)  

[Yank2133]

This poll is also fairly dated as well.

It's a mail poll that in theory has no business working but somehow ends up near the mark every year.  The dates are October 24-November 3.

Yeah, they have a good track record....it just hard to get to excited about it since it has been in the field for over a week.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Obama continues in the lead, but still in a precarious position in Ohio.  He cannot get comfortable.

[pepper11]

This poll is also fairly dated as well.

It's a mail poll that in theory has no business working but somehow ends up near the mark every year.  The dates are October 24-November 3.

Speedy mailman getting those Nov 3 voters.

[tmthforu94]

At least Obama hasn't completely pulled away here - Mitt still has a shot, though it'd be pretty remarkable considering only Rasmussen has shown him ahead recently.

FWIW, Gallup had Bush up 8 in Wisconsin just days before the election. Strategic Vision also had him up 3. Gallup had some weird results, though, I'll concede.

[Skill and Chance]

At least Obama hasn't completely pulled away here - Mitt still has a shot, though it'd be pretty remarkable considering only Rasmussen has shown him ahead recently.

FWIW, Gallup had Bush up 8 in Wisconsin just days before the election. Strategic Vision also had him up 3. Gallup had some weird results, though, I'll concede.

It's true that the polls called WI wrong in 2004.  The final RCP average had Bush +0.9.  The RCP average called every other swing state winner correctly, including IA, where a Bush +0.3 polling lead held on election day and a Bush +1.4 lead in NM that held. 

The worst 2004 error was in FL, and it favored the incumbent: Bush +0.6 in the final average vs. Bush +5 actual.  I guess this doesn't get as much attention because the polls still technically picked the right winner.

[heatmaster]

Cliffy, the science beats all arguments and this is the same data, I have gotten; Obama's Ohio firewall is crumbling under the force of what has been going on in Ohio, "It's the Economy Stupid" it's amazing how the old 1992 Clinton mantra has come full circle: if what I'm seeing on the ground in Ohio continues, which now seems a certainty, Romney's ground game is as good, if not superior to Bush's 2004 ground-game: then Denver which was Obama's triumph in '08, will be seen as his Waterloo in 2012.

[Miles]

Awesome. They nailed both statewide races in 2010.

If I'd trust one pollster the most in OH, this would be it.

[Miles]

New Poll: Ohio President by Columbus Dispatch on 2012-11-03

Summary: D: 50%, R: 48%, I: 0%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Too close for comfort, but 50% is still a good number for the President to be at.  With Marist, PPP, and Quinn. all at 5+, and many other pollsters sitting at 3... add in the Obama ground game, which I'm a big believer in, I'll predict a 51.5-47.5 Obama finish, right around 2008.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I don't think we're going to see a repeat of 2008 in Ohio, although we should be so lucky; it ought, however, to swing away from Obama less than the rest of the country (hence a D trend, in Atlas terminology). I'd say, at this point, somewhere between 50.5 and 51 against somewhere between 48 and 48.5.

[heatmaster]

A repeat of 2008? Guess you really buy into those polls; take them with a grain of salt; Obama is getting his butt-kicked in the ground game, the base is not there, there is a record he can't explain or defend: best thing I've heard, is give me a another chance, so I can have another crack at what is not clearly working, raising taxes, so as to fund all those free-bees for that elusive 47% who are sticking with the anointed one: well can't blame you, best to stick with the one who brung you to the shindig; sorry no repeat of 2008, it's 2012 and your guy is running scared, Ohio is make or break, not a winning strategy (notice no presidential seal in evidence, guess old Barack is pretending he's not the president): but your spin is very entertaining, but the hard cold facts speak otherwise.
Interesting tid-bit, Obama in Dubuque, Iowa and a reporter from CNN, said rally crowd size....waaay down on 2008; those who didn't show up, where the heck were they? Maybe voting? Maybe taking care of other stuff (that undertow thread I have cited might just materialize - you know, where the base just half-shows up, or just couldn't be bothered. So much for Hope and Change!

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

A repeat of 2008? Guess you really buy into those polls; take them with a grain of salt; Obama is getting his butt-kicked in the ground game, the base is not there, there is a record he can't explain or defend: best thing I've heard, is give me a another chance, so I can have another crack at what is not clearly working, raising taxes, so as to fund all those free-bees for that elusive 47% who are sticking with the anointed one: well can't blame you, best to stick with the one who brung you to the shindig; sorry no repeat of 2008, it's 2012 and your guy is running scared, Ohio is make or break, not a winning strategy (notice no presidential seal in evidence, guess old Barack is pretending he's not the president): but your spin is very entertaining, but the hard cold facts speak otherwise.
Interesting tid-bit, Obama in Dubuque, Iowa and a reporter from CNN, said rally crowd size....waaay down on 2008; those who didn't show up, where the heck were they? Maybe voting? Maybe taking care of other stuff (that undertow thread I have cited might just materialize - you know, where the base just half-shows up, or just couldn't be bothered. So much for Hope and Change!

Apparently you jet around the country all the time and can give us a real sense of what's going on on the ground.  That's fascinating!  How do you find the time to be visiting every swing state and taking the political temperature of the electorate?  And crowd size was down?  You sir are a GENIUS!  Why didn't I think of that?  Forget months of scientific polling, a CNN reporter said a crowd in Iowa was waaaayyyy down from 2008.  Well, that just seals it up for me.  Every poll in Iowa having the President ahead... hahahaha.  How ridiculously arbitrary.  I'll hit up InTrade and put my car and life savings down on Romney. 

If you couldn't tell I was being sarcastic... well, I'll let you figure that out, you little genius, you. 

I'll take polling aggregates, early numbers, and statistics.  Have a nice night.

[Eraserhead]

The race is pretty close and I can understand why people would hope for the best for their preferred candidate but some of the Romney people on here appear to have completely lost their minds recently.