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  Final wave of YouGov state polls out in the next 24 hours
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Author Topic: Final wave of YouGov state polls out in the next 24 hours  (Read 5523 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: November 04, 2012, 12:55:14 am »

3rd wave @YouGovUS state polling released in the next 24 hours (Pres and Senate).

Final #election2012 national call for BO/MR in 48 hours.

https://twitter.com/YouGovUS/status/264966056454524928
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2012, 07:11:04 am »

Let's hope they polled this week and not 2 weeks ago, like in their previous two rounds.
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Umengus
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2012, 10:36:37 am »

yougov polls have bad reputation...
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2012, 11:43:59 am »

YouGov checks in with their final set of polls among likely voters:

AZ: 52-44 Romney
GA: 52-44 Romney
IN: 51-44 Romney
MO: 53-42 Romney
TN: 53-42 Romney
NH: 47-43 Obama
NM: 49-43 Obama
TX: 57-38 Romney
CO: 48-47 Obama
FL: 48-47 Romney
IA: 48-47 Obama
NV: 49-45 Obama
NC: 49-47 Romney
VA: 48-46 Obama
WI: 50-46 Obama
MI: 51-44 Obama
OH: 49-46 Obama
PA: 52-44 Obama
CT: 54-39 Obama
MN: 50-43 Obama
NJ: 53-41 Obama
WA: 54-40 Obama
CA: 55-40 Obama
IL: 57-38 Obama
MD: 59-37 Obama
NY: 59-36 Obama
MA: 57-37 Obama

http://today.yougov.com/news/categories/politics
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2012, 11:50:38 am »

Overall good for Obama.  Consistent with IA being super close.  PA looks unexpectedly safe in these numbers.  The most interesting thing here is we have yet more evidence that VA is turning left at the last minute.  That was a bit unexpected.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2012, 11:52:51 am »

Hmm, I just wanted to click on their crosstabs for the Senate results, but it seems they have removed the polls from their website ... Huh

Are you able to access the results ?
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Franzl
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2012, 11:53:56 am »

Unless polling is way off, and I see no credible reason why it should be, I don't quite understand how Romney is supposed to win.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2012, 11:56:56 am »

Unless polling is way off, and I see no credible reason why it should be, I don't quite understand how Romney is supposed to win.

A Romney NPV win is certainly within the standard error of the polls.  However, it would be on the strength of TX vs. CA.  For Obama to lose the electoral college, polling averages have to be off by at least 3% at this point, though...
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Franzl
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2012, 12:00:26 pm »

Unless polling is way off, and I see no credible reason why it should be, I don't quite understand how Romney is supposed to win.

A Romney NPV win is certainly within the standard error of the polls.  However, it would be on the strength of TX vs. CA.  For Obama to lose the electoral college, polling averages have to be off by at least 3% at this point, though...

The probability of one poll being an outlier (i.e. outside the margin of error at 95% confidence) is 5%, but the probability that the average of polls is outside of their "collective" MOE is considerably lower.

The only way Romney could win is if pretty much every poll had large sampling errors (which is what desperate Republicans are trying to argue). Sure it's possible....but Gary Johnson becoming President is also possible.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2012, 12:09:00 pm »

Hmm, I just wanted to click on their crosstabs for the Senate results, but it seems they have removed the polls from their website ... Huh

Are you able to access the results ?
Nope. Perhaps they weren't ready for prime time.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2012, 12:10:09 pm »

Hmm, I just wanted to click on their crosstabs for the Senate results, but it seems they have removed the polls from their website ... Huh

Are you able to access the results ?
Nope. Perhaps they weren't ready for prime time.

Probably some apprentice posted them before he/she was allowed to ... Wink
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Seriously?
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2012, 12:16:19 pm »

Hmm, I just wanted to click on their crosstabs for the Senate results, but it seems they have removed the polls from their website ... Huh

Are you able to access the results ?
Nope. Perhaps they weren't ready for prime time.

Probably some apprentice posted them before he/she was allowed to ... Wink
Ah, them novices. Never listening to the boss. No tweet that I can see, you probably just got a hold of a stray link that wasn't completely ready to go yet.
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ajb
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2012, 12:21:20 pm »

They're up now.

http://today.yougov.com/news/2012/11/04/yougov-state-polls-point-narrow-obama-victory/
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2012, 12:23:32 pm »

Firewall !

Img
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2012, 12:30:48 pm »

Here are the results of all polls in a nice chart (incl. Senate):

http://cdn.yougov.com/r/1/2012%20Election%20results%20table%20YouGovLV%20ONLY.pdf
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Warren Griffin
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2012, 12:32:27 pm »

Unless polling is way off, and I see no credible reason why it should be, I don't quite understand how Romney is supposed to win.

A Romney NPV win is certainly within the standard error of the polls.  However, it would be on the strength of TX vs. CA.  For Obama to lose the electoral college, polling averages have to be off by at least 3% at this point, though...

The probability of one poll being an outlier (i.e. outside the margin of error at 95% confidence) is 5%, but the probability that the average of polls is outside of their "collective" MOE is considerably lower.

The only way Romney could win is if pretty much every poll had large sampling errors (which is what desperate Republicans are trying to argue). Sure it's possible....but Gary Johnson becoming President is also possible.

That's it!

YouGov checks in with their final set of polls among likely voters:

AZ: 52-44 Romney
GA: 52-44 Romney
IN: 51-44 Romney
MO: 53-42 Romney
TN: 53-42 Romney
NH: 47-43 Obama
NM: 49-43 Obama
TX: 57-38 Romney
CO: 48-47 Obama
FL: 48-47 Romney
IA: 48-47 Obama
NV: 49-45 Obama
NC: 49-47 Romney
VA: 48-46 Obama
WI: 50-46 Obama
MI: 51-44 Obama
OH: 49-46 Obama
PA: 52-44 Obama
CT: 54-39 Obama
MN: 50-43 Obama
NJ: 53-41 Obama
WA: 54-40 Obama
CA: 55-40 Obama
IL: 57-38 Obama
MD: 59-37 Obama
NY: 59-36 Obama
MA: 57-37 Obama

http://today.yougov.com/news/categories/politics

These numbers seems pretty near to the truth. Obviously its time to pimp the record and get serious Wink!
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Beat-Em-All Beto
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2012, 12:41:16 pm »

Firewall !

Img

275-191-72 Obama!!!!!
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Hugo Award nominee
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2012, 02:36:01 pm »

But the Democratic leaners are lazy inhabitants of the shiftless demimonde who won't actually bother to turn out, you see.
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Holmes
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« Reply #18 on: November 04, 2012, 02:47:17 pm »

Those Texas numbers look pretty bad, even for Obama. Hope he gets over 40%, at least.
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opebo
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« Reply #19 on: November 04, 2012, 02:50:21 pm »

Everything just as one would expect, no surprises.
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True Federalist
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« Reply #20 on: November 04, 2012, 03:22:06 pm »

The only way Romney could win is if pretty much every poll had large sampling errors (which is what desperate Republicans are trying to argue). Sure it's possible....but Gary Johnson becoming President is also possible.

Johnson becoming President looks to more possible than Romney winning this time.  He's only 59, so future Presidential runs are quite possible for Gary.  If the national GOP veers libertarian to get out of its current presidential problems, he's got a shot at getting the GOP nomination in 2020 or 2024.  I think the GOP is likely going to bet on a social conservative in 2016.  (Not that Romney hasn't taken conservative positions on social issues, but they never have been a priority for him.)
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Seriously?
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« Reply #21 on: November 04, 2012, 04:23:11 pm »

Unless polling is way off, and I see no credible reason why it should be, I don't quite understand how Romney is supposed to win.
I hope you're not counting these INTERNET polls in your calculus. Until the methodology is proven, they should be treated on the same level with the Zogby polls.
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Worried Italian Progressive
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« Reply #22 on: November 04, 2012, 04:32:33 pm »

Tennessee = Missouri in the poll...
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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #23 on: November 04, 2012, 04:33:43 pm »

Unless polling is way off, and I see no credible reason why it should be, I don't quite understand how Romney is supposed to win.
I hope you're not counting these INTERNET polls in your calculus. Until the methodology is proven, they should be treated on the same level with the Zogby polls.

He's not.
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ReelectCarterMondale!
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« Reply #24 on: November 04, 2012, 10:27:48 pm »

Romney still doing horribly in TN...LOL
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