Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 24, 2019, 12:32:06 pm
News: Please delete your old personal messages.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Final wave of YouGov state polls out in the next 24 hours
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] Print
Author Topic: Final wave of YouGov state polls out in the next 24 hours  (Read 5540 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,123
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: November 07, 2012, 02:33:06 am »

They might have one of the best polls out there ...
Logged
Warren Griffin
Red Shadow
Jr. Member
**
Posts: 59
Germany


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: November 07, 2012, 03:17:41 am »

Unless polling is way off, and I see no credible reason why it should be, I don't quite understand how Romney is supposed to win.

A Romney NPV win is certainly within the standard error of the polls.  However, it would be on the strength of TX vs. CA.  For Obama to lose the electoral college, polling averages have to be off by at least 3% at this point, though...

The probability of one poll being an outlier (i.e. outside the margin of error at 95% confidence) is 5%, but the probability that the average of polls is outside of their "collective" MOE is considerably lower.

The only way Romney could win is if pretty much every poll had large sampling errors (which is what desperate Republicans are trying to argue). Sure it's possible....but Gary Johnson becoming President is also possible.

That's it!

YouGov checks in with their final set of polls among likely voters:

AZ: 52-44 Romney
GA: 52-44 Romney
IN: 51-44 Romney
MO: 53-42 Romney
TN: 53-42 Romney
NH: 47-43 Obama
NM: 49-43 Obama
TX: 57-38 Romney
CO: 48-47 Obama
FL: 48-47 Romney
IA: 48-47 Obama
NV: 49-45 Obama
NC: 49-47 Romney
VA: 48-46 Obama
WI: 50-46 Obama
MI: 51-44 Obama
OH: 49-46 Obama
PA: 52-44 Obama
CT: 54-39 Obama
MN: 50-43 Obama
NJ: 53-41 Obama
WA: 54-40 Obama
CA: 55-40 Obama
IL: 57-38 Obama
MD: 59-37 Obama
NY: 59-36 Obama
MA: 57-37 Obama

http://today.yougov.com/news/categories/politics

These numbers seems pretty near to the truth. Obviously its time to pimp the record and get serious Wink!

Like I said Cheesy!
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC