Democrats poised for a big night in the Senate?

[Ogre Mage]

At this point it appears that the conventional wisdom about the outcome in the Senate races is the status quo, with Democrats retaining a 53-47 edge in the chamber.  Given the terrible map (defending 23 seats vs. only 10 for the GOP), this outcome would be a major victory for us.

But there is a fair chance that the Democrats could actually gain seats.  IMO, the realistic best case scenario for us would be a net gain of two seats, for a 55-45 majority.  Frankly I think the idea that we will win Nebraska is foolish.  I can see why some people have hope for North Dakota (Heitkamp) and Arizona (Carmona) but personally I think those races will go to the GOP.

I think we will win:  Maine, Massachusetts, Indiana, Wisconsin and Virginia.  I also think the right-wing praying for Akin in MO is foolish.

In terms of a Democratic pickup of seats, I would say these are the critical two to watch:

Montana:  I think this is the truest tossup Senate race of the cycle at this point.  For most of the race Tester appeared to be a very slight underdog, but due to a very strong campaign there are even odds that he could pull this out.

Nevada:  We don't really know where this race is.  Heller is leading in the polls, but I simply don't trust them given what we know about Democrats underpolling in Nevada.  As I have said before, I think this is the most confusing race of the cycle.

So what will actually happen?  Between Montana and Nevada, I'll play the law of averages and say the Democrats win one but not the other.  

That would result in a net gain of +1 for Democrats in the Senate, for a 54-46 edge.  And we would have big reasons to celebrate if this was the result.

[Ogre Mage]

...or alternatively, Reid getting ballsy and threatening to "nuke" the GOP like they did back in Bush years.

To me, the prospect of four more years of Obama judicial appointments is exciting, especially if a conservative seat opens up at the Supreme Court. Reid needs to prepare for this possibility now. If Obama gets the opportunity to fill a conservative seat, WWIII is upon us.

Right now, it does look like Reid will pursue some reform to the filibuster. Hopefully, it will actually make a difference. Respecting the rights of the minority should not mean tyranny of the minority, as we have had as of late.

Frankly, Obama was so busy dealing with rescuing the economy and health care reform that judicial nominations below the Supreme Court level went completely by the wayside.  There are a huge number of vacancies.  Not all of the problem was due to Obama neglect, the GOP obstruction on this issue was continuous and infuriating. 

It is critical that the Obama administration put more resources into moving judicial nominations through the pipeline during his second term.  And yes, the filibuster needs to be reformed.  It is being wantonly abused.  Without reform, I would not put it past Senate Republicans to filibuster any Obama nominee to the Supreme Court.