Democrats poised for a big night in the Senate? (user search)
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  Democrats poised for a big night in the Senate? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Democrats poised for a big night in the Senate?  (Read 1682 times)
Talleyrand
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Posts: 4,517


« on: November 04, 2012, 10:16:57 AM »

I'm very confident the Senate will end up with the current breakdown; 53 Democrats-47 Republicans.

Democratic Gains
Maine*
Massachusetts
Indiana

Republican Gains
Nebraska
North Dakota
Montana

*- Assuming King caucuses as a Democrat

I would be surprised if it were anything but the previous result.
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Talleyrand
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Posts: 4,517


« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2012, 11:28:06 AM »

Nebraska is a fool's gold. At most, Kerrey is going to make it embarrassingly close for Fischer, but I just can't see him winning.

As of Arizona, Carmona has a momentum but it faded since then.

North Dakota is a pure tossup and I can't make a projection.

Montana is oddly overlooked. Personally, I think this is most likely Republican pickup.

Why is Montana more likely to flip than Nebraska? Tester has actually led in a few recent polls, while Kerrey has never led in any poll. As for North Dakota, independent polls as of late have shown Berg establishing a clear advantage.

I think all three of those are gone, but if Democrats manage to retain one, it'll definitely be Montana.
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