Official 2012 Presidential Prediction Thread

[GLPman]

This is my final prediction:

Obama: 281
Romney: 257

That, plus NH, was my pre-debate map. 

I honestly could see NH going either way. I'm hoping for a Romney win tomorrow, but this is my most realistic guess as to what will occur.

[ShadowRocket]

I agree with the consensus. At the same time though, I wouldn't be surprised to see Obama win FL, so I'm not really confident with that one.

[President von Cat]

Florida and Colorado are too close to call, IMO. I'm doing this based solely on early voting. In Florida, Democrats are ahead and in Colorado, Republicans are. Both states could go either way, and I believe they will be the two closest states of the election.

Obama 323, 50.3%
Romney 251, 48.7%
Other, 1%

[Badger]

Barack Obama: 51% PV, 332 EVs
Mitt Romney: 48% PV, 206 EVs

Sticking with it.  Changed Hawaii to high 60% for Obama.  Florida is going to be the closest state methinks, it could really go either way, but I'm starting to think the undecideds are breaking in a way similar to 2004.  If I get that one wrong I won't be too mad at myself.

This is my prediction too, except I'm just utterly uncertain which way Florida goes.

Gun to my head, I'd say Romney by a nose.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I keep tinkering with this, but here it is . .  .

Obama/Biden   297 EV   49.1%
Romney/Ryan  241 EV   48.3%
Johnson/Gray   1.5%
others              1.1%   

swings in R-D toward Obama:
AK, AZ, AR, AL

[Smash255]

Obama 332-206 (Florida called in several days)  Obama 51-48 PV

[All Along The Watchtower]

Obama 294
Romney 244

PV: Obama 50.5%, Romney 48%.

[Stirring Wolf🥣🐺]

Prediction Map:


Confidence Map:


309-229; 50.5-48.2 Obama Victory

Felt like going out on a little limb with my prediction.

[Niemeyerite]

Obama 332-206 (Florida called in several days)  Obama 51-48 PV

That's my prediction right now, too. Unsure about FL and NC (I feel optimistic).

[cavalcade]

I swear, I'm not bandwagoning, and in particular agonized about VA and FL for some time.  But I'm going with the 303 map.

Barring a new VA poll today, the 303 map is also the final RCP map.

[SnapPoll]

If Obama wins, he won't get more than 281 EVs. If Romney wins, he'll most likely get at least 281 EVs.

New Hampshire to Obama
Florida to Romney
North Carolina to Romney
Virginia to Romney
Ohio to Romney
MN and WI to Obama
IA and CO to Romney
NV to Obama

[anvi]

How do I post map?

Sorry outobfbox6, I haven't checked this since yesterday.  And welcome to the forum, by the way! 

There is a tab at the top of the page with a little calculator icon and the letters "evc" next to it (electoral vote calculator).  Click on it, look at the table and click your predictions for each state (please note on this site that we use the traditional colors, blue for the GOP candidate and red for the Dem candidate).  When you're done, click the tab near the map that says "update map and ev totals."  After you get your prediction map, click another tab underneath the map that says "show map link."  A small window will open at the top of your screen with a bunch of text.  Highlight all that text, and then select the "copy" option from your browser edit menu.  Then come back to this thread and "paste" your map into the post window.

I hope those instructions are clear.  It's one of the few procedures on this site I know how to do.  Look forward to your prediction!

Thanks for the maps, all!  We're coming down to it!

[Velasco]

My prediction right now: Obama 273-Romney 265. Not sure about Virginia.

[Warren Griffin]

Obama - 303

Romney - 235

Confidence Map:



Obama - 281

Romney - 206

Tossup - 51 (Colorado, Florida, Virginia)

Yep, that's it!

[Magic 8-Ball]

Looks like I was wrong about Florida.  Oh well.  I was one state closer than last time, at least.

[pbrower2a]

As of 10AM EST 7 November 2012

Yesterday I predicted that Florida would go to Romney because of the ad that suggested that President Obama had good buddies in Cuba and Venezuela. That ad may have backfired. 

Pretty good, huh?

The secret to making a good prediction is to not make one until the critical facts are in.

[ProudModerate2]

I'm now able to log-in to the forum. Wow. (It's 11:42 PM Pacific)
Here was my prediction map that I created early this morning (and just now posting it).

Colors on the map:
Baby Blue / Pink = Slight
Med Blue / Red = Lean
Dark Blue / Brick Red = Strong

Obama = 290 EVs (and Winner)
Romney = 248 EVs

Looks like I was wrong in Virginia, and if Obama wins Florida, then I was wrong with Florida also (Florida has yet not been called ; Too close to call.)

[Velasco]

I failed miserably with my prediction. I tend to be pessimistic, this way I don't get disillusioned if things go wrong

[politicallefty]

I did get the final electoral vote right, which appears to be 332-206 (unless there's a big surprise in Florida). There will be several states I got wrong in predicting the percentage, especially a few Romney states. I definitely didn't see Romney getting the margins he did in WV and KY. It looks like the only Obama state I overestimated him on was DE, where I had expected him to cross 60%.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Obama: 323
Romney: 215

Obama wins popular vote by 2%

I was hesitant about Florida.

Looks like I was wrong about Colorado.

[Silent Hunter]

Looks like I was wrong on Colorado too - I also had Florida for Romney, which is probably going to be wrong too.

[Minnesota Mike]

Obama:  2008 states - Indiana, North Carolina and Nebraska CD 02.

Excuse me while I gloat a little

[Niemeyerite]

Obama 332-206 (Florida called in several days)  Obama 51-48 PV

That's my prediction right now, too. Unsure about FL and NC (I feel optimistic).

Yeah. And you can see on my facebook my predictions were right (-ND Senate, -MT Senate)

[Cryptic]

Got 49 out of 50.  Missed Florida.  Guess I should've been a bit more optimistic. 

[TrapperHawk]

Well, I was right in every state except for Florida. I have to say that I'm glad that I was wrong there. (If Obama wins Florida, of course.) Called Romney getting over 60% in Arkansas too. Though that wasn't too bold of a prediction. Didn't think that Obama would do THAT bad in Kentucky and West Virginia. Now, I knew he'd lose big, but I thought that Romney would get around 58-59% instead of over 60%. Oh well.