Internet poll. I could be a black woman from Ohio that reads the New York Times and loves Obama with and they'd have no clue.
Fair enough, you don't like internet polls. The fact remains that they were amongst the most accurate of pollsters in 2010, coming in just a couple of tenths of a point behind Q-Pac and SUSA. Rasmussen's average error (5.9%), was two and half points worse than Yougov, whose average error was 3.5%.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/