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  IA:PPP: Obama 50- Romney 48
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Author Topic: IA:PPP: Obama 50- Romney 48  (Read 1513 times)
Beat-‘Em-All Beto
Clinton1996
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« on: November 04, 2012, 04:56:13 pm »

Results soon.
@ppppolls:
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Yank2133
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« Reply #1 on: November 04, 2012, 04:59:41 pm »

Sounds about right.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
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« Reply #2 on: November 04, 2012, 05:02:05 pm »

Seems Romney is getting a lot of the last undecideds but not quite enough.
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Dynamite Shovel
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« Reply #3 on: November 04, 2012, 05:04:19 pm »

Seems Romney is getting a lot of the last undecideds but not quite enough.

That's basically what happened with McCain in 2008 (of course J. J. touted this as proof of his beloved Bradley Effect.) Not surprising.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #4 on: November 04, 2012, 05:04:56 pm »

Another state where Obama hits 50.  Its an important threshold.
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Eastern Kentucky Demosaur fighting the long defeat
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« Reply #5 on: November 04, 2012, 05:07:00 pm »

Another state where Obama hits 50.  Its an important threshold.

The last PPP poll here was Obama 50-48, hence my comment about undecideds.
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Ljube
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« Reply #6 on: November 04, 2012, 05:09:29 pm »

You know what is funny. You guys are acting as if opinion polls are somehow the reality and votes don't matter. Drawing conclusions like: Romney is getting a lot of the last undecideds.

Opinion polls are only accurate to a certain degree. In Iowa, opinion polls are even less accurate. When they show a close race, know it can go either way.

I don't think Romney can overtake the +62000 early vote margin Obama already has.
But if he does, then he's won the election.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #7 on: November 04, 2012, 05:22:23 pm »

You know what is funny. You guys are acting as if opinion polls are somehow the reality and votes don't matter. Drawing conclusions like: Romney is getting a lot of the last undecideds.

Opinion polls are only accurate to a certain degree. In Iowa, opinion polls are even less accurate. When they show a close race, know it can go either way.

I don't think Romney can overtake the +62000 early vote margin Obama already has.
But if he does, then he's won the election.


Opinion polls are a window into how people are going to actually vote.  That's why they've been used to predict election outcomes for, oh I don't know, over a century.  The fact that I even have to explain this to you is mind-boggling.  
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Ljube
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« Reply #8 on: November 04, 2012, 05:34:13 pm »

You know what is funny. You guys are acting as if opinion polls are somehow the reality and votes don't matter. Drawing conclusions like: Romney is getting a lot of the last undecideds.

Opinion polls are only accurate to a certain degree. In Iowa, opinion polls are even less accurate. When they show a close race, know it can go either way.

I don't think Romney can overtake the +62000 early vote margin Obama already has.
But if he does, then he's won the election.


Opinion polls are a window into how people are going to actually vote.  That's why they've been used to predict election outcomes for, oh I don't know, over a century.  The fact that I even have to explain this to you is mind-boggling.  

They are an indicator of how people think, but not an accurate predictor. Particularly not if they fall within the range of the poll sampling error.
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Franzl
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« Reply #9 on: November 04, 2012, 05:45:45 pm »

You know what is funny. You guys are acting as if opinion polls are somehow the reality and votes don't matter. Drawing conclusions like: Romney is getting a lot of the last undecideds.

Opinion polls are only accurate to a certain degree. In Iowa, opinion polls are even less accurate. When they show a close race, know it can go either way.

I don't think Romney can overtake the +62000 early vote margin Obama already has.
But if he does, then he's won the election.


Opinion polls are a window into how people are going to actually vote.  That's why they've been used to predict election outcomes for, oh I don't know, over a century.  The fact that I even have to explain this to you is mind-boggling.  

They are an indicator of how people think, but not an accurate predictor. Particularly not if they fall within the range of the poll sampling error.

The probability of one poll being off by more than the margin of error is one thing....but the probability of ALL polls being that wrong is MUCH lower.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #10 on: November 04, 2012, 05:46:41 pm »
« Edited: November 04, 2012, 05:49:39 pm by AWallTEP81 »

You know what is funny. You guys are acting as if opinion polls are somehow the reality and votes don't matter. Drawing conclusions like: Romney is getting a lot of the last undecideds.

Opinion polls are only accurate to a certain degree. In Iowa, opinion polls are even less accurate. When they show a close race, know it can go either way.

I don't think Romney can overtake the +62000 early vote margin Obama already has.
But if he does, then he's won the election.


Opinion polls are a window into how people are going to actually vote.  That's why they've been used to predict election outcomes for, oh I don't know, over a century.  The fact that I even have to explain this to you is mind-boggling.  

They are an indicator of how people think, but not an accurate predictor. Particularly not if they fall within the range of the poll sampling error.

Really?  They aren't?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nov-3-romneys-reason-to-play-for-pennsylvania/#more-37144

Six elections, and the poll average for a state was wrong THREE times.  Again, THREE.  It's true that polls can be wrong within the margin of error... but for every single one of these polls to be wrong, and ALL WRONG IN ROMNEY'S DIRECTION.  You are talking about an outcome so statistically improbable that I can't even begin to think of the odds. 

I've said this to you Romney guys before.  If you argue with this, you are LITERALLY arguing with facts and numbers.  Good luck with that.  
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Seriously?
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« Reply #11 on: November 04, 2012, 05:47:08 pm »

Anyone want to explain to me how Obama is up 61/39 in a state where 32-percent of the ballots cast so far are by Republicans and 25-percent by independents.

I don't think anyone can claim with a straight face that independents broke 2.5-1 for Obama in this election cycle.
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Ljube
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« Reply #12 on: November 04, 2012, 05:54:53 pm »

You know what is funny. You guys are acting as if opinion polls are somehow the reality and votes don't matter. Drawing conclusions like: Romney is getting a lot of the last undecideds.

Opinion polls are only accurate to a certain degree. In Iowa, opinion polls are even less accurate. When they show a close race, know it can go either way.

I don't think Romney can overtake the +62000 early vote margin Obama already has.
But if he does, then he's won the election.


Opinion polls are a window into how people are going to actually vote.  That's why they've been used to predict election outcomes for, oh I don't know, over a century.  The fact that I even have to explain this to you is mind-boggling.  

They are an indicator of how people think, but not an accurate predictor. Particularly not if they fall within the range of the poll sampling error.

Really?  They aren't?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nov-3-romneys-reason-to-play-for-pennsylvania/#more-37144

Six elections, and the poll average for a state was wrong THREE times.  Again, THREE.

I've said this to you Romney guys before.  If you argue with this, you are LITERALLY arguing with facts and numbers.  Good luck with that.  

Yes, I like a good argument. That’s what’s been missing here.

If you take a closer look, you will notice that the closer the polls the less accurate they were in predicting the outcome.

Now, unlike any previous election, this time we have many states that are close.
A small movement last minute could produce completely different results.

I am betting that such a movement will happen. I think that the undecideds will break 75-25 for Romney. The precedent for this is the last somewhat close election (Bush-Kerry 2004). The undecideds broke heavily for Kerry and Bush nearly lost in spite of being ahead by a larger margin in polls.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #13 on: November 04, 2012, 06:24:37 pm »
« Edited: November 04, 2012, 06:27:12 pm by AWallTEP81 »

You know what is funny. You guys are acting as if opinion polls are somehow the reality and votes don't matter. Drawing conclusions like: Romney is getting a lot of the last undecideds.

Opinion polls are only accurate to a certain degree. In Iowa, opinion polls are even less accurate. When they show a close race, know it can go either way.

I don't think Romney can overtake the +62000 early vote margin Obama already has.
But if he does, then he's won the election.


Opinion polls are a window into how people are going to actually vote.  That's why they've been used to predict election outcomes for, oh I don't know, over a century.  The fact that I even have to explain this to you is mind-boggling.  

They are an indicator of how people think, but not an accurate predictor. Particularly not if they fall within the range of the poll sampling error.

Really?  They aren't?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nov-3-romneys-reason-to-play-for-pennsylvania/#more-37144

Six elections, and the poll average for a state was wrong THREE times.  Again, THREE.

I've said this to you Romney guys before.  If you argue with this, you are LITERALLY arguing with facts and numbers.  Good luck with that.  

Yes, I like a good argument. That’s what’s been missing here.

If you take a closer look, you will notice that the closer the polls the less accurate they were in predicting the outcome.

Now, unlike any previous election, this time we have many states that are close.
A small movement last minute could produce completely different results.

I am betting that such a movement will happen. I think that the undecideds will break 75-25 for Romney. The precedent for this is the last somewhat close election (Bush-Kerry 2004). The undecideds broke heavily for Kerry and Bush nearly lost in spite of being ahead by a larger margin in polls.


The closer the polls got the less accurate they were?  Where do you see this?  Look at 2008, where 29 states received enough poll to draw a good sample size.  Of those 29 states, the polling average missed the actual result by 3+ points 9 times.  Those states?

AK, AR, AZ, IA, NM, NV, NY, WA, WV

of those, only Nevada was contested, and the MOV for Obama was HUGELY underestimated by every pollster.  Everywhere else, it was a blowout.  

Now look at the 11 battleground states in the 2008 election

CO, FL, GA, IN, MO, MT, NH, NC, OH, PA, VA... check out the polling averages vs. the result.  

The polling average result was within 1.5 pts of the actual in every single one of those states.  Why?  Because THEY WERE THE BATTLEGROUNDS!  They were polled over, and over, and over, and over using a scientific method of polling.  Statistics 101, bro.  The bigger your sample size, and the more samples you get, there more you are going to approximate the reality of the situation.  So, I don't know how your argument holds up.  And the CLOSEST of the battlegrounds... Indiana was within .2, Florida was within .3, Missouri was within .5... and the two states polled the most in 2008, VA and OH... ON THE DOT.

As for 2004?  How about you go back to that chart.  Bush, the incumbent, did better than his polling average in the actual result 18 out of those 24 states.  Only six (WI, WA, PA, NY, NV, NM), were better than Kerry than the polling suggested.  Where are you getting that undecideds broke for Kerry 75/25?  I've never seen that before and the numbers certainly don't back that up... if anything, it would seem that polling underestimated the incumbent.

http://www.college.columbia.edu/cct_archive/nov05/forum.php

look at the chart on that page, I couldn't paste it here.  EVERYONE had that race as close as hell.  All but 2 had it within 2 pts, some had Kerry winning.  Where are you seeing that Kerry took 75% of undecideds?
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Likely Voter
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« Reply #14 on: November 04, 2012, 06:39:31 pm »

Let's face it, there is no polling data that indicates anything but a win for Obama. He is polling better now than Bush was in 2004. He also has a better approval rating. Plus polls indicate the he has 'mo' in the last week. It is possible that Romney would win, but there simply are no precedents in recent presidential polling for it. Of course there can always be a first time, but that is what you are betting on.

Of course in 2004 Dems were also hoping the polls were wrong. They were hoping that LV screens were underestimating Dem turnout, especially non-whites and young voters. This year we are hearing from the Romney pollsters (and conservative pundits) that LV screens are overestimating Dems, especially young voters and non-whites.

We will find out in two days, but (as has been noted), the 'Romney will win' argument is one based on faith, or more to the point, lack of faith in polling.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #15 on: November 04, 2012, 06:40:21 pm »

Anyone want to explain to me how Obama is up 61/39 in a state where 32-percent of the ballots cast so far are by Republicans and 25-percent by independents.

I don't think anyone can claim with a straight face that independents broke 2.5-1 for Obama in this election cycle.

It's definitely possible that independents who vote early are Obama supporters. And, indeed, poll after poll after poll is showing as much. Romney will probably win election day independents by a large margin as well.
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Seriously?
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« Reply #16 on: November 04, 2012, 09:00:47 pm »

Anyone want to explain to me how Obama is up 61/39 in a state where 32-percent of the ballots cast so far are by Republicans and 25-percent by independents.

I don't think anyone can claim with a straight face that independents broke 2.5-1 for Obama in this election cycle.

It's definitely possible that independents who vote early are Obama supporters. And, indeed, poll after poll after poll is showing as much. Romney will probably win election day independents by a large margin as well.
And I live on Fantasy Island.
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Mangez des pommes !
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« Reply #17 on: November 04, 2012, 09:20:43 pm »

Anyone want to explain to me how Obama is up 61/39 in a state where 32-percent of the ballots cast so far are by Republicans and 25-percent by independents.

I don't think anyone can claim with a straight face that independents broke 2.5-1 for Obama in this election cycle.

It's definitely possible that independents who vote early are Obama supporters. And, indeed, poll after poll after poll is showing as much. Romney will probably win election day independents by a large margin as well.
And I live on Fantasy Island.

Considering your posts, that's probable.
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