You know what is funny. You guys are acting as if opinion polls are somehow the reality and votes don't matter. Drawing conclusions like: Romney is getting a lot of the last undecideds.
Opinion polls are only accurate to a certain degree. In Iowa, opinion polls are even less accurate. When they show a close race, know it can go either way.
I don't think Romney can overtake the +62000 early vote margin Obama already has.
But if he does, then he's won the election.
Opinion polls are a window into how people are going to actually vote. That's why they've been used to predict election outcomes for, oh I don't know, over a century. The fact that I even have to explain this to you is mind-boggling.
They are an indicator of how people think, but not an accurate predictor. Particularly not if they fall within the range of the poll sampling error.
Really? They aren't?
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nov-3-romneys-reason-to-play-for-pennsylvania/#more-37144
Six elections, and the poll average for a state was wrong THREE times. Again, THREE.
I've said this to you Romney guys before. If you argue with this, you are LITERALLY arguing with facts and numbers. Good luck with that.
Yes, I like a good argument. That’s what’s been missing here.
If you take a closer look, you will notice that the closer the polls the less accurate they were in predicting the outcome.
Now, unlike any previous election, this time we have many states that are close.
A small movement last minute could produce completely different results.
I am betting that such a movement will happen. I think that the undecideds will break 75-25 for Romney. The precedent for this is the last somewhat close election (Bush-Kerry 2004). The undecideds broke heavily for Kerry and Bush nearly lost in spite of being ahead by a larger margin in polls.
