NC: PPP: Romney +.2

[Holmes]

It doesn't make sense. Obama hasn't even been to NC since the convention, Romney was there once. If it was tied you would think somebody would be there in the final week or for that fact the final month of the campaign.

North Carolina is a changing state, not that I think that means Obama will take it, or that it's becoming more left-wing. But it's the state I want Obama to win the most.

[Seriously?]

Best news of the night. Now we know for sure PPP is hacking it up. Early voting in NC is way off this number, probably 5 points.

LOL. I am shocked they gave Romney Montana.

Seriously, Seriously?? PPP has a slight but significant (about 2% ±1) Democrat-friendly deviation from the polling average some to most of the time. They're not the Democratic equivalent of Wenzel or pre-last-week Gravis.

It's incredulous to me that the Democrats on this board seem to think that it's going to be this magical PPP world where Obama wins everywhere when there is a national shift between 8 and 12 points depending on the pollster and that shift is discernible in the early vote margin in most swing states.

Obama may win this race at the end, but it's not going to be this BLUE state fantasyland where states where the President won by .33% in 2008 are magically sticking with the him.

The math doesn't work. Nor do these PPP polls.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Best news of the night. Now we know for sure PPP is hacking it up. Early voting in NC is way off this number, probably 5 points.

LOL. I am shocked they gave Romney Montana.

Seriously, Seriously?? PPP has a slight but significant (about 2% ±1) Democrat-friendly deviation from the polling average some to most of the time. They're not the Democratic equivalent of Wenzel or pre-last-week Gravis.

It's incredulous to me that the Democrats on this board seem to think that it's going to be this magical PPP world where Obama wins everywhere when there is a national shift between 8 and 12 points depending on the pollster and that shift is discernible in the early vote margin in most swing states.

Obama may win this race at the end, but it's not going to be this BLUE state fantasyland where states where the President won by .33% in 2008 are magically sticking with the him.

The math doesn't work. Nor do these PPP polls.

Your math doesn't work.  An 8 to 12 point national shift would translate to a 1 to 6 point national Romney margin, when the slew of national polls released yesterday ranged from a tie to a 3 point Obama margin, which equates to only a 4 to 7 point national shift.  There were 22 states in 2008 that had a trend of 4% or more and 15 that had one of 7% of more.  Obviously, Obama can't hold on to all of the states that were close last time.  (For instance he won't keep Indiana, and Missouri which he almost took last time is out of reach, but him holding onto both North Carolina and Florida is well within the realm of possibility. Tho I currently am predicting he'll keep neither, it wouldn't shock me if he did.