Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 24, 2019, 04:15:15 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL: PPP: Obama leads by one
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: FL: PPP: Obama leads by one  (Read 3767 times)
Dr. RI
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,245
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.39, S: 4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 05, 2012, 12:20:11 am »

One respondent, that is.

Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.
Logged
pa2011
Full Member
***
Posts: 234
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2012, 12:22:45 am »

So Romney has to hope the polls are wrong or under estimating his support in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado and  Ohio and to some extent Pennsylvania and/or Wisconsin to win. Not really a great place to be 24 hours before the voting begins.
Logged
Reds4
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 787


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2012, 12:24:14 am »

Pretty crazy... Mason-dixon has been good in Florida so it's strange to see such a wide spread between them (+6 for Romney) and so many others... regardless, someone is going to look bad Tuesday night.
Logged
Eraserhead
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 42,573
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2012, 12:26:50 am »

Florida is going to be a tough one to predict.
Logged
Devils30
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,899
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.06, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2012, 12:27:11 am »

It's basically a tie for statistical purposes but I'm probably gonna go with Romney in FL for my final map.
Logged
Fuzzybigfoot
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,211
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2012, 12:27:41 am »

Su-su-surging!  Cheesy
Logged
Skill and Chance
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,367
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2012, 12:31:25 am »

Pretty crazy... Mason-dixon has been good in Florida so it's strange to see such a wide spread between them (+6 for Romney) and so many others... regardless, someone is going to look bad Tuesday night.

I would be very surprised if it doesn't go to Romney.  In 2004 RCP had FL at Bush +0.6, and the actual result was Bush +5.0  Rubio and Scott also underpolled in 2010.  Obama 2008 was right on the mark while he underpolled in most other states.  Cuban Republicans are likely under-represented in polling.
Logged
Speed of Sound
LiberalPA
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 14,185
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2012, 12:32:25 am »

It's basically a tie for statistical purposes but I'm probably gonna go with Romney in FL for my final map.
Logged
Yank2133
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,173


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2012, 12:34:05 am »

Mason Dixon is an excellent pollster.....but every other poll seems to show a closer race. I still think Romney wins FL.......but it may be very close.
Logged
Likely Voter
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 8,354


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2012, 12:39:40 am »

Romney will probably win, but it is certainly not 'in the bank' for him. If it were, he wouldn't be headed back for one more visit in Monday (and to VA too)
Logged
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,488



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2012, 12:40:41 am »

Their last Florida poll was terrible because it made no sense, I guess I'll have to wait to see the internals.
Logged
Miles
MilesC56
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 19,345
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2012, 12:58:37 am »

The Senate, numbers check out, 51-46 Nelson. If anything, it seems a bit generous to Mack.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,690
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2012, 12:59:39 am »

Hmm, shouldn't this be added more like a tie, rather than a 1-point lead for Obama ?

Obama leads by 1 poll respondent, that doesn't justify a 1% poll lead.
Logged
Lief 🐋
Lief
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 40,608
Dominica


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2012, 01:02:51 am »

Hmm, shouldn't this be added more like a tie, rather than a 1-point lead for Obama ?

Obama leads by 1 poll respondent, that doesn't justify a 1% poll lead.

Maybe it does when everything is re-weighed.
Logged
Hugo Award nominee
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,124


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2012, 01:03:44 am »

Hmm, shouldn't this be added more like a tie, rather than a 1-point lead for Obama ?

Obama leads by 1 poll respondent, that doesn't justify a 1% poll lead.

Maybe it does when everything is re-weighed.

Maybe it's like 49.55 to 49.45.
Logged
Fargobison
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,488



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2012, 01:12:24 am »

Romney winning whites by 19% and losing Hispanics by 6%....probably equals a 2 or 3 point win on election day.
Logged
Dr. RI
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,245
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.39, S: 4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2012, 01:14:06 am »

Hmm, shouldn't this be added more like a tie, rather than a 1-point lead for Obama ?

Obama leads by 1 poll respondent, that doesn't justify a 1% poll lead.

I entered the poll exactly as PPP reported it.
Logged
Hugo Award nominee
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 21,124


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2012, 01:17:19 am »

Romney winning whites by 19% and losing Hispanics by 6%....probably equals a 2 or 3 point win on election day.

Turnout in Florida's apparently a sight for sore eyes (my best friend is working with the Obama campaign in Palm Beach County; I really miss her), but I'd say a 2-point Romney win sounds about right, sadly.
Logged
Andrew1
Full Member
***
Posts: 102
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2012, 03:47:05 am »

Hmm, shouldn't this be added more like a tie, rather than a 1-point lead for Obama ?

Obama leads by 1 poll respondent, that doesn't justify a 1% poll lead.

Maybe it does when everything is re-weighed.

Maybe it's like 49.55 to 49.45.

Right, it's because of rounding

473 Obama = 49.53% = 50%
472 Romney = 49.42% = 49%
10 Others = 1.05% = 1%
Logged
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37,021
United States


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2012, 07:14:25 am »

Pretty crazy... Mason-dixon has been good in Florida so it's strange to see such a wide spread between them (+6 for Romney) and so many others... regardless, someone is going to look bad Tuesday night.

Even good pollsters should have occasional outliers.  (For example, that Pew national poll a few weeks ago that had Romney+7.)  So it could be that M-D had an outlier.  It also could be that they haven't adapted well to the cellphone era.  We'll see.
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,685
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2012, 07:33:30 am »

I really don't want this to be a long night.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,869
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2012, 07:38:37 am »

Pretty crazy... Mason-dixon has been good in Florida so it's strange to see such a wide spread between them (+6 for Romney) and so many others... regardless, someone is going to look bad Tuesday night.

Even good pollsters should have occasional outliers.  (For example, that Pew national poll a few weeks ago that had Romney+7.)  So it could be that M-D had an outlier.  It also could be that they haven't adapted well to the cellphone era.  We'll see.

I think M-D had one previously that showed Romney up by 6, which is probably too large. 
Logged
pbrower2a
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,859
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2012, 09:30:31 am »

If Florida goes to President Obama, then maybe the Spanish-language ad that the political ad that attempts to link President Obama to Hugo Chavez and (through the dictator's niece Mariela) Fidel Castro backfired.  If nothing else happens as a result of this election, then such could show the necessity of integrity in campaigning.

Basically, do not lie.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,744
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2012, 06:36:10 pm »

Junk poll from Putrid Propagand Polling!

They polled all the moochers and welfare queens while leaving out good white Americans, real Americans.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC