FL: PPP: Obama leads by one

[RI]

One respondent, that is.

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[pa2011]

So Romney has to hope the polls are wrong or under estimating his support in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado and  Ohio and to some extent Pennsylvania and/or Wisconsin to win. Not really a great place to be 24 hours before the voting begins.

[Reds4]

Pretty crazy... Mason-dixon has been good in Florida so it's strange to see such a wide spread between them (+6 for Romney) and so many others... regardless, someone is going to look bad Tuesday night.

[Eraserhead]

Florida is going to be a tough one to predict.

[Devils30]

It's basically a tie for statistical purposes but I'm probably gonna go with Romney in FL for my final map.

[Fuzzybigfoot]

Su-su-surging! 

[Skill and Chance]

Pretty crazy... Mason-dixon has been good in Florida so it's strange to see such a wide spread between them (+6 for Romney) and so many others... regardless, someone is going to look bad Tuesday night.

I would be very surprised if it doesn't go to Romney.  In 2004 RCP had FL at Bush +0.6, and the actual result was Bush +5.0  Rubio and Scott also underpolled in 2010.  Obama 2008 was right on the mark while he underpolled in most other states.  Cuban Republicans are likely under-represented in polling.

[Speed of Sound]

It's basically a tie for statistical purposes but I'm probably gonna go with Romney in FL for my final map.

[Yank2133]

Mason Dixon is an excellent pollster.....but every other poll seems to show a closer race. I still think Romney wins FL.......but it may be very close.

[Likely Voter]

Romney will probably win, but it is certainly not 'in the bank' for him. If it were, he wouldn't be headed back for one more visit in Monday (and to VA too)

[Fargobison]

Their last Florida poll was terrible because it made no sense, I guess I'll have to wait to see the internals.

[Miles]

The Senate, numbers check out, 51-46 Nelson. If anything, it seems a bit generous to Mack.

[Tender Branson]

Hmm, shouldn't this be added more like a tie, rather than a 1-point lead for Obama ?

Obama leads by 1 poll respondent, that doesn't justify a 1% poll lead.

[Lief 🗽]

Hmm, shouldn't this be added more like a tie, rather than a 1-point lead for Obama ?

Obama leads by 1 poll respondent, that doesn't justify a 1% poll lead.

Maybe it does when everything is re-weighed.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Hmm, shouldn't this be added more like a tie, rather than a 1-point lead for Obama ?

Obama leads by 1 poll respondent, that doesn't justify a 1% poll lead.

Maybe it does when everything is re-weighed.

Maybe it's like 49.55 to 49.45.

[Fargobison]

Romney winning whites by 19% and losing Hispanics by 6%....probably equals a 2 or 3 point win on election day.

[RI]

Hmm, shouldn't this be added more like a tie, rather than a 1-point lead for Obama ?

Obama leads by 1 poll respondent, that doesn't justify a 1% poll lead.

I entered the poll exactly as PPP reported it.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Romney winning whites by 19% and losing Hispanics by 6%....probably equals a 2 or 3 point win on election day.

Turnout in Florida's apparently a sight for sore eyes (my best friend is working with the Obama campaign in Palm Beach County; I really miss her), but I'd say a 2-point Romney win sounds about right, sadly.

[Andrew1]

Hmm, shouldn't this be added more like a tie, rather than a 1-point lead for Obama ?

Obama leads by 1 poll respondent, that doesn't justify a 1% poll lead.

Maybe it does when everything is re-weighed.

Maybe it's like 49.55 to 49.45.

Right, it's because of rounding

473 Obama = 49.53% = 50%
472 Romney = 49.42% = 49%
10 Others = 1.05% = 1%

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Pretty crazy... Mason-dixon has been good in Florida so it's strange to see such a wide spread between them (+6 for Romney) and so many others... regardless, someone is going to look bad Tuesday night.

Even good pollsters should have occasional outliers.  (For example, that Pew national poll a few weeks ago that had Romney+7.)  So it could be that M-D had an outlier.  It also could be that they haven't adapted well to the cellphone era.  We'll see.

[Holmes]

I really don't want this to be a long night.

[J. J.]

Pretty crazy... Mason-dixon has been good in Florida so it's strange to see such a wide spread between them (+6 for Romney) and so many others... regardless, someone is going to look bad Tuesday night.

Even good pollsters should have occasional outliers.  (For example, that Pew national poll a few weeks ago that had Romney+7.)  So it could be that M-D had an outlier.  It also could be that they haven't adapted well to the cellphone era.  We'll see.

I think M-D had one previously that showed Romney up by 6, which is probably too large. 

[pbrower2a]

If Florida goes to President Obama, then maybe the Spanish-language ad that the political ad that attempts to link President Obama to Hugo Chavez and (through the dictator's niece Mariela) Fidel Castro backfired.  If nothing else happens as a result of this election, then such could show the necessity of integrity in campaigning.

Basically, do not lie.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Junk poll from Putrid Propagand Polling!

They polled all the moochers and welfare queens while leaving out good white Americans, real Americans.