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  CO: PPP: Obama up 6
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Author Topic: CO: PPP: Obama up 6  (Read 4701 times)
Gass3268
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« on: November 05, 2012, 10:02:37 am »

PublicPolicyPolling ‏@ppppolls
Our final Colorado poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 52/46.

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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2012, 10:04:08 am »

Ehh...
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Marokai Backbeat
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2012, 10:04:48 am »

Hmm..
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Ljube
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2012, 10:07:40 am »

Pushing it a little too far.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2012, 10:07:41 am »

A bit high, but I'm confident Obama wins here. It's the Hispanics, stupid.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2012, 10:08:32 am »

File this under: Things I'd love to believe
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2012, 10:08:53 am »

PPP was the best pollster in Colorado in 2010
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Ljube
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2012, 10:09:15 am »

A bit high, but I'm confident Obama wins here. It's the Hispanics, stupid.

Possible. But nobody knows if that vote will materialize.
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Franzl
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2012, 10:21:00 am »

We're getting to the point where you really could make everything 5% friendlier to Romney and he'd still, at best, tie.

PPP may be overstating things, but are they really off by 6%. I say the same thing about Mason Dixon in Florida.
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Ljube
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2012, 10:24:26 am »

We're getting to the point where you really could make everything 5% friendlier to Romney and he'd still, at best, tie.

PPP may be overstating things, but are they really off by 6%. I say the same thing about Mason Dixon in Florida.

That's the problem with making averages of all polls: Nobody knows which polls are right!

One thing is sure though. Obama isn't winning above 37% whites. He will very likely be much lower than that due to his "vote for revenge" comment.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2012, 10:26:43 am »

We're getting to the point where you really could make everything 5% friendlier to Romney and he'd still, at best, tie.

PPP may be overstating things, but are they really off by 6%. I say the same thing about Mason Dixon in Florida.

That's the problem with making averages of all polls: Nobody knows which polls are right!

One thing is sure though. Obama isn't winning above 37% whites. He will very likely be much lower than that due to his "vote for revenge " comment.

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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2012, 10:40:42 am »


It's still tough to see Romney pulling this one out.  2008 Early Vote was D+3ish and Obama wins by 9.  2010 Early Vote was R+6-7  and this resulted in basically a statistical tie statewide-D's win gov and barely win senate, R's flip the state house and 2-3 statewide offices.  2012 early vote is R+2-3, which points to Democrats +3-4 state wide.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2012, 11:01:27 am »

This does make me feel a little better about Colorado, which I've thought would be pretty tight. It seems like this is the upper end of possibilities for Colorado. If Hispanics come out in full-force for the President, the state won't be as close as most are predicting.
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pepper11
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2012, 11:11:00 am »

Best news of the day.
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Watermelon sin Jamón
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2012, 11:12:41 am »

Seems outlierish. Probably be only D+2 or 3.
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HagridOfTheDeep
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« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2012, 11:55:42 am »

So North Carolina is tied and Colorado is O+6? PPP definitely doesn't have a built-in bias this cycle. No, definitely not.
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Franzl
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« Reply #16 on: November 05, 2012, 11:58:36 am »

So North Carolina is tied and Colorado is O+6? PPP definitely doesn't have a built-in bias this cycle. No, definitely not.

They probably do. But you still can't just take any random poll and subtract x to get the "real" number.

And 6% or more? I have trouble imagining that.
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True Federalist
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« Reply #17 on: November 05, 2012, 12:19:14 pm »

For a credible pollster 1 out of every 20 polls should be an outlier outside the margin of error.  This looks to be such a beast.
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Lief 🐋
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« Reply #18 on: November 05, 2012, 12:50:49 pm »

If there's one pollster I'd trust in Colorado, it's PPP. They came closest in 2008 and again in 2010, in both cases showing results a few points more favorable to the Democrats than everyone else.
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Hugo Award nominee
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« Reply #19 on: November 05, 2012, 02:59:36 pm »

If there's one pollster I'd trust in Colorado, it's PPP. They came closest in 2008 and again in 2010, in both cases showing results a few points more favorable to the Democrats than everyone else.

Yeah, the state's not Nevada or anything but it's still not real easy to nail down.
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Buh her emails!
diskymike44
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« Reply #20 on: November 05, 2012, 03:27:41 pm »

Great news!

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Eraserhead
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« Reply #21 on: November 05, 2012, 03:37:02 pm »

This poll just doesn't feel right. CO is a weird one though, perhaps PPP will be the only pollster who nails it...
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King
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« Reply #22 on: November 05, 2012, 04:53:17 pm »

My belief is that nonwhites are being underpolled nationally.  This poll being right would fit my belief.

We'll find out tomorrow.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #23 on: November 05, 2012, 04:56:22 pm »

My belief is that nonwhites are being underpolled nationally.  This poll being right would fit my belief.

We'll find out tomorrow.

I agree, I think they are missing how well Obama is going to do with the Hispanic vote.  O+6 doesn't feel right, but neither did O+10 4 years ago. 

I will not be surprised if Obama takes in 52-46.  Demographics are the name of the game.  Plus, Obama WON white voters in 2008.  I've taken note to how Colorado has not been friendly to him, but I think some people might have come back to Obama in the closing days out there. 
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #24 on: November 05, 2012, 04:56:41 pm »

Both the Democratic senatorial candidate and the Democratic gubernatorial candidate overperformed their poll numbers in 2010, ftr. Although having said that, they were up against more loony opposition than Obama is.
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