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  University of Cincinnati (OH): Obama up by 1.5
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Author Topic: University of Cincinnati (OH): Obama up by 1.5  (Read 3135 times)
ChrisFromNJ
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« on: November 05, 2012, 11:01:53 am »

The final Ohio poll by the University of Cincinnati

http://www.ipr.uc.edu/documents/op110512.pdf

President Obama: 50
Mitt Romney: 48.5

Senate race:
Brown 50.6
Mandel 46.8

Margin of Error +-3.3

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afleitch
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« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2012, 11:12:34 am »

Their last poll was O+2 so some tightening there.
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Franzl
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« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2012, 11:13:13 am »

Hold the line!

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Ljube
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« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2012, 11:16:03 am »

Their last poll was O+2 so some tightening there.

The tightening is probably the result of "vote for revenge" comment.
That one won't bode well with whites in Ohio.

Could decide the election in the end.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2012, 11:23:53 am »

I have a feeling this will be quite accurate again ...
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Yank2133
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« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2012, 11:31:08 am »

Their last poll was O+2 so some tightening there.

The tightening is probably the result of "vote for revenge" comment.
That one won't bode well with whites in Ohio.

Could decide the election in the end.

No, it is because they pushed undecideds. It was 4% the last poll and now it is 1%.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2012, 11:32:31 am »

Their last poll was O+2 so some tightening there.

The tightening is probably the result of "vote for revenge" comment.
That one won't bode well with whites in Ohio.

Could decide the election in the end.

Does anyone who is not a hardcore partisan even know about that?
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Ljube
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« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2012, 11:36:55 am »

Their last poll was O+2 so some tightening there.

The tightening is probably the result of "vote for revenge" comment.
That one won't bode well with whites in Ohio.

Could decide the election in the end.

Does anyone who is not a hardcore partisan even know about that?

We'll see tomorrow, I guess.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2012, 11:45:11 am »

It didn't really tighten. The last poll was +2 for Obama, at 48-46. Now it's 50 to 48.5, which is only .5 gain for Romney, which doesn't amount to more than noise.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2012, 12:13:01 pm »

Ohio isn't a certainty - Whoever has the best GOTV efforts will likely win this election.
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J. J.
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« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2012, 01:51:21 pm »

Ohio isn't a certainty - Whoever has the best GOTV efforts will likely win this election.

Exactly. 
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2012, 02:17:49 pm »

Ohio isn't a certainty - Whoever has the best GOTV efforts will likely win this election.

Exactly. 

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp
Obama campaign says they knocked on 376k doors in Ohio yesterday, Romney camp says 70k. Both probably exaggerating a bit

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heatmaster
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« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2012, 02:26:48 pm »

So many polls! But of course Obama leads, wow!; hey! the Democratic base can relax and chill; you got it in the bag.....yep this poll is a convincer!; just didn't buy all those polls, which showed the race within the margin of error or Romney leading; you can relax, Ohio is in the bag....LOL
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Speed of Sound
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« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2012, 02:35:30 pm »

Ohio isn't a certainty - Whoever has the best GOTV efforts will likely win this election.

Exactly. 

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp
Obama campaign says they knocked on 376k doors in Ohio yesterday, Romney camp says 70k. Both probably exaggerating a bit


....wow......
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Nathan
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« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2012, 02:38:44 pm »

Ohio isn't a certainty - Whoever has the best GOTV efforts will likely win this election.

Exactly. 

Sam Stein ‏@samsteinhp
Obama campaign says they knocked on 376k doors in Ohio yesterday, Romney camp says 70k. Both probably exaggerating a bit


....wow......

But ~Project Orca~ is going to blow this thing wide open!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #15 on: November 07, 2012, 02:34:09 am »

I have a feeling this will be quite accurate again ...

... This remains the gold standard. Together with the Columbus Dispatch poll which was O+2.
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Nathan
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« Reply #16 on: November 07, 2012, 03:15:31 am »

Nailed it.

Congratulations, University of Cincinnati.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #17 on: November 07, 2012, 03:18:18 am »

Yeah, this poll looks like it got it right. I thought the final result in Ohio was very underwhelming. Romney won two bellwethers I was looking at (Lake and Stark Counties). I think Romney got his base out, but was just overwhelmed by Obama's ground game. Ohio 2012 seems like the mirror of Ohio 2004 (except that this year's result didn't hinge on Ohio).
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Nathan
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« Reply #18 on: November 07, 2012, 03:32:17 am »

Yeah, this poll looks like it got it right. I thought the final result in Ohio was very underwhelming. Romney won two bellwethers I was looking at (Lake and Stark Counties). I think Romney got his base out, but was just overwhelmed by Obama's ground game. Ohio 2012 seems like the mirror of Ohio 2004 (except that this year's result didn't hinge on Ohio).

Obama did, however, win the ultimate Ohio bellwether, Ottawa County, by very slightly more than his statewide margin.
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J. J.
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« Reply #19 on: November 07, 2012, 07:13:16 am »

Now the Quinnipiac of OH.  Smiley
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