Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
June 20, 2019, 07:06:28 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2012 Elections
  2012 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2  (Read 3227 times)
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,698


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 05, 2012, 04:51:21 pm »
« edited: November 08, 2012, 02:15:54 am by cinyc »

Suffolk Bellwether Polls
Lake County, Ohio
Romney 47%
Obama 43%
Duncan 4%
Alexander 1%
Undecided 2%
Refused 4%

Milford, New Hampshire
Romney 51%
Obama 46%
Undecided 3%

Epping, New Hampshire
Romney 49%
Obama 47%
Undecided 3%
Refused 1%

November 1-4; 300 LV; MoE +/-5.65%
Logged
Ty440
GoldenBoy
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 668
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2012, 04:57:11 pm »

I live in Lake County and I can see Romney winning by two or three percent, it's full of those working class to upper-middle class whites and only around four percent minority.

We usually always track the statewide average within one or two percent.

Interesting to see if  Lake county deviates from the statewide total.
Logged
dirks
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 410


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2012, 04:57:28 pm »

how do they look relative to 2008?
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,810
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2012, 05:02:54 pm »

Dirks, the first two were Obama -2 below state average; the third was Obama +2. 
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,668
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 05, 2012, 05:03:17 pm »

how do they look relative to 2008?

Click on "Election Results" on the top of every page.
Logged
King
intermoderate
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 29,465
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 05, 2012, 05:05:08 pm »

6 point margin of error.

how do they look relative to 2008?

Click on "Election Results" on the top of every page.

You have to pay Dave to get town results.  I have before, but I don't want to renew my membership to check one thing.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,698


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 05, 2012, 05:07:55 pm »

how do they look relative to 2008?

Obama won the New Hampshire towns in 2008 52/53-47/46.  He won Lake County 49.45-48.62.


Those polled in Epping said they voted 47-40 Obama in 2008 (6% did not vote in 2008).  Those polled in Milford said they voted 55-38 Obama (3% did not vote in 2008).  Lake County wasn't asked that question for some odd reason.
Logged
Holmes
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,668
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.45, S: -5.74


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 05, 2012, 05:10:10 pm »

6 point margin of error.

how do they look relative to 2008?

Click on "Election Results" on the top of every page.

You have to pay Dave to get town results.  I have before, but I don't want to renew my membership to check one thing.

Oh right, I saw Lake County and assumed the New Hampshire numbers were from counties as well. Didn't really pay attention. My bad.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,810
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 05, 2012, 05:17:38 pm »

6 point margin of error.

how do they look relative to 2008?

Click on "Election Results" on the top of every page.

You have to pay Dave to get town results.  I have before, but I don't want to renew my membership to check one thing.

The 2000, 2004 and 2008 results are included in the release.  
Logged
GMantis
Dessie Potter
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,723
Bulgaria


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 05, 2012, 05:18:30 pm »

You can see the election results in New Hampshire here:
http://sos.nh.gov/2008PresGen.aspx
Epping was won by Obama with a 7.4% margin and Milford by 4.7%.
Logged
Linus Van Pelt
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,130


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 05, 2012, 08:45:37 pm »

Lake County, Ohio
Romney 47%
Obama 43%
Duncan 4%
Alexander 1%
Undecided 2%
Refused 4%


Duncan?
Logged
cavalcade
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 740


Political Matrix
E: 2.71, S: -3.13

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 05, 2012, 08:58:12 pm »

This points to both OH and NH being very close, if I read it right, though there is of course the MOE.  About the best news Romney's gotten today.
Logged
DemPGH
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,772
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 05, 2012, 09:14:58 pm »

I don't know how diverse those areas are, but it seems strange you'd have a high MOE like that in these small, focused areas to include towns. And what a day of polling for Obama-- even Gallup, after a hiatus, moved hard to Obama. This strange thing is the best on the day by far for Romney, including Gallup.
Logged
J. J.
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 32,810
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 05, 2012, 09:45:52 pm »

The folks at Suffolk are either going to look like idiots or geniuses tomorrow.  Same with the folks at PPP. 
Logged
Seriously?
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,034
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 05, 2012, 10:48:58 pm »

The folks at Suffolk are either going to look like idiots or geniuses tomorrow.  Same with the folks at PPP. 
I'll bet Suffolk. They have early vote data on their side. PPP has to have Independents break 80/20 to validate some of those early vote findings.
Logged
Scott
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 18,299
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 05, 2012, 11:04:25 pm »

4% for... Duncan?  Okay...
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 49,072
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2012, 01:25:08 am »

Suffolk (probably) sucks.
Logged
Hugo Award nominee
Nathan
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 20,991


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2012, 01:27:37 am »

I don't even know who this 'Duncan' is, and Stewart Alexander is unlikely to get 1% of the vote in any county.
Logged
rob in cal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,735
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2012, 01:48:59 am »

Duncan is on the ballot just in Ohio, he was a write in only candidate in 2008.  He supports a lot of infrastructure improvements, strong national defense and is pro-life. I'm not sure who he'd be appealing to.  I'm suspicious of his large vote, and that he beat out my man Johnson.
Logged
cinyc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,698


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: November 08, 2012, 02:09:40 am »

Lake County, Ohio - Romney +4.  Actual result  - Romney +2.  Not too bad.  Duncan received 0.23%, though, nowhere near 4%.  Decent job polling, but a terrible bellwether.

Milford, NH - Romney +5.  Actual result - Obama +2.  Actual statewide result - Obama +6.  Poll fail.  Off a bit as a bellwether, too.

Epping, NH -  Romney +2.  Actual result - Obama +3.  Poll fail, though at least within the margin of error.  One point closer to being a good bellwether.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC