Suffolk Bellwethers: Lake, OH: R+4; Milford, NH: R+5; Epping, NH: R+2

[cinyc]

Suffolk Bellwether Polls
Lake County, Ohio
Romney 47%
Obama 43%
Duncan 4%
Alexander 1%
Undecided 2%
Refused 4%

Milford, New Hampshire
Romney 51%
Obama 46%
Undecided 3%

Epping, New Hampshire
Romney 49%
Obama 47%
Undecided 3%
Refused 1%

November 1-4; 300 LV; MoE +/-5.65%

[cinyc]

how do they look relative to 2008?

Obama won the New Hampshire towns in 2008 52/53-47/46.  He won Lake County 49.45-48.62.


Those polled in Epping said they voted 47-40 Obama in 2008 (6% did not vote in 2008).  Those polled in Milford said they voted 55-38 Obama (3% did not vote in 2008).  Lake County wasn't asked that question for some odd reason.

[cinyc]

Lake County, Ohio - Romney +4.  Actual result  - Romney +2.  Not too bad.  Duncan received 0.23%, though, nowhere near 4%.  Decent job polling, but a terrible bellwether.

Milford, NH - Romney +5.  Actual result - Obama +2.  Actual statewide result - Obama +6.  Poll fail.  Off a bit as a bellwether, too.

Epping, NH -  Romney +2.  Actual result - Obama +3.  Poll fail, though at least within the margin of error.  One point closer to being a good bellwether.