Who will win Florida?

[gotapresent]

If you believe the polls (and I know some don't...), then Florida is shaping up to be one of the more uncertain states. So who do you think will win it?

[mileslunn]

I would say Romney by about 1%, but I wouldn't be overly shocked if Obama wins.  I do think though Obama will lead the state much of the night as the panhandle which is in central time zone is the most Republican part of the state so the numbers come in slower there.

[SetonHallPirate]

I know in Palm Beach County, where I live, the spread between already-submitted ballots is a 26-point (up from 19 points four years ago) edge for the Democrats, with wait times of over seven hours at one of the 14 early-vote sites in Palm Beach County (and one that is more likely to be heavily-Democratic). If that holds throughout the state, Florida is going to to be won by the Democrats. I'm not optimistic that there isn't voter cannibalization in there, or that the tune is the same statewide, but if Florida turns out to be the state that is closest of the bunch, that's a great sign for the President.

I do think Romney will end up winning the state, however.

[SetonHallPirate]

I would say Romney by about 1%, but I wouldn't be overly shocked if Obama wins.  I do think though Obama will lead the state much of the night as the panhandle which is in central time zone is the most Republican part of the state so the numbers come in slower there.

Usually, Broward, Miami-Dade, and Palm Beach are the last three to come in. That being said, our Supervisor of Elections has decentralized a lot of the vote counting, which will speed things up (the vote cartridges are now driven to one of 17 sites within Palm Beach County, rather than only to the Supervisor of Elections offices, and Palm Beach County is, geographically, the largest in the state).

[mileslunn]

Even if takes longer for all the votes to come in those counties, I am thinking more of early leads as the polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern time everywhere except the panhandle thus the first precincts will exclude that part of the state which tends to vote massively Republican i.e. over 70%.  I believe that is partly why they mistakenly called Florida for Gore in 2000 as the panhandle hadn't closed yet when they called it for him.  Also the northern parts of the state are more like the Deep South thus while the South maybe swinging towards the Democrats, the North is becoming more Republican like much of the South, whereas the Southern parts of the state from a cultural perspective are far more Northeastern than Southern.

[SetonHallPirate]

Even if takes longer for all the votes to come in those counties, I am thinking more of early leads as the polls close at 7:00 PM Eastern time everywhere except the panhandle thus the first precincts will exclude that part of the state which tends to vote massively Republican i.e. over 70%.  I believe that is partly why they mistakenly called Florida for Gore in 2000 as the panhandle hadn't closed yet when they called it for him.  Also the northern parts of the state are more like the Deep South thus while the South maybe swinging towards the Democrats, the North is becoming more Republican like much of the South, whereas the Southern parts of the state from a cultural perspective are far more Northeastern than Southern.

The reason they mistakenly called Florida for Gore in 2000 was some exit polling data in one Tampa-area precinct that somebody made a typo on, saying it was 98% Gore when it actually wasn't close to that. Had nothing to do with the panhandle closing at 8 EST rather than 7.

[Dereich]

Also, only something like 1 million out of 19 million people in Florida live in central time. If all of the results for the rest of the state are in before central time areas close it'll probably be clear who will win by swings in the rest of the state by that point.

I predict a 51.5-48 Romney win.

[Tender Branson]

Small Romney victory.

[opebo]

The last minute trend is Obama.  I'll say Obama.

[Adam Griffin]

The winner.

[BlueSwan]

Romney by about 1%

[Mehmentum]

538 just recently changed it to Obama being favored, for what its worth.

[politicallefty]

I chose Obama in my prediction, but I expect it to be very close either way.

[Franzl]

Romney by about 1%

I think this is about right.

[7,052,770]

52.5% Obama, so almost a coin flip.  Gun to my head, I'd predict Obama, but wouldn't bet any money on it.

[Maxwell]

If Obama wins Florida, we know this election is over.