OK-GOV primary runoffs: Who wins?

[I’m not Stu]

The Oklahoma gubernatorial primary runoffs will be on August 28. Who will win each of them?

[Politician]

No idea about the Libertarians but Kevin Stitt is favored to win the GOP runoff, as he'll absorb much of Lamb's support. He also makes the general into a tossup.

[I’m not Stu]

No idea about the Libertarians but Kevin Stitt is favored to win the GOP runoff, as he'll absorb much of Lamb's support. He also makes the general into a tossup.

I think Powell wins the Libertarian runoff because he's been a Libertarian longer than Lawhorn, who recently switched parties.

[Skill and Chance]

Republicans are going to throw this away by nominating Stitt.  If Edmondson wins and Democrats get to 1/3rd in the state house (almost likely based on the specials), Dems would likely get a toss up OKC district in 2022 redistricting.

[ON Progressive]

Considering Stitt is leading in 2 of the 3 polls and is tied in the other, I have to go with him.

[I’m not Stu]

Is Cornett unpopular?

[wesmoorenerd]

Is Cornett unpopular?

Nope. Quite the opposite, actually, his record as Mayor is widely respected on both sides of the aisle. He is very much a moderate, though.

[I’m not Stu]

If Oklahoma had a jungle primary, Edmondson would easily be elected in a D vs. D runoff due to a crowded GOP field.

[wesmoorenerd]

If Oklahoma had a jungle primary, Edmondson would easily be elected in a D vs. D runoff due to a crowded GOP field.

Interesting food for thought, but that's assuming every voter in the primaries would remain loyal to their party in a hypothetical jungle primary. Unless I'm mistaken, Oklahoma is the kind of state with highly misleading party registration/primary turnout numbers. Registration simply hasn't caught up with shifting coalitions, akin to West Virginia.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Republicans are going to throw this away by nominating Stitt.  If Edmondson wins and Democrats get to 1/3rd in the state house (almost likely based on the specials), Dems would likely get a toss up OKC district in 2022 redistricting.

There is no fair way you can draw a tossup seat in Oklahoma County

A tossup CD? You are likely right on that. However, a CD located wholely in Oklahoma County is definitely possible.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Republicans are going to throw this away by nominating Stitt.  If Edmondson wins and Democrats get to 1/3rd in the state house (almost likely based on the specials), Dems would likely get a toss up OKC district in 2022 redistricting.

There is no fair way you can draw a tossup seat in Oklahoma County

A tossup CD? You are likely right on that. However, a CD located wholely in Oklahoma County is definitely possible.

I’m aware. Just pointing out that even if you kept OKC intact, the best you can do is about R+6ish. Aka, far from a tossup seat

True.
I think actually it might be more promising for OK-02 to be redrawn to include North Tulsa.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Republicans are going to throw this away by nominating Stitt.  If Edmondson wins and Democrats get to 1/3rd in the state house (almost likely based on the specials), Dems would likely get a toss up OKC district in 2022 redistricting.

There is no fair way you can draw a tossup seat in Oklahoma County

A tossup CD? You are likely right on that. However, a CD located wholely in Oklahoma County is definitely possible.

I’m aware. Just pointing out that even if you kept OKC intact, the best you can do is about R+6ish. Aka, far from a tossup seat

Whipped this map up.
OK-01: 31% Obama, 42% Dem, R+23
OK-02: 40% Obama, 56% Dem, R+17
OK-03: 45% Obama, 51% Dem, R+5
OK-04: 30% Obama, 48% Dem, R+25
OK-05: 27% Obama, 40% Dem, R+26
OK overall: 34% Obama, 47% Dem, R+20

[Grassroots]

Cornett, he is much more respected and better known than Stitt, who is a hard right plant and is trying to play a "I'm an outsider" card on an experienced and successful mayor.

I would have loved a Governor Lamb, but we can't all get what we want.

[I’m not Stu]

Could Edmondson win if Stitt is the nominee? Might the Libertarian (Powell or Lawhorn) siphon votes from Stitt?

[wesmoorenerd]

Could Edmondson win if Stitt is the nominee? Might the Libertarian (Powell or Lawhorn) siphon votes from Stitt?

Edmondson could definitely win if Stitt is the nominee, it would be slightly less likely than Kansas though. The Libertarian won't siphon anything.

[I’m not Stu]

Would Edmondson have been able to win if Dan Fisher were the GOP nominee?