Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[wesmoorenerd]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

I do agree that a runoff will be an uphill battle, but GA-06 does lean less Republican than GA as a whole. Not to mention I don't really think it's debatable that Abrams is a better candidate than Ossoff.

Nope.  Averaging the Cook PVI's for the state (source), the statewide lean is R+5.3, while GA-06 is R+8.

Haha, that was a mistake, I meant to say more Republican. Point being that the fundamentals in GA-06 were tougher than GA-GOV.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Nope.  Averaging the Cook PVI's for the state (source), the statewide lean is R+5.3, while GA-06 is R+8.

Considering the vast majority of the districts are drawn to drown out the influence of black/Democratic votes, the lean for a statewide campaign like Abrams is running is probably even more favorable for Ds.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

I do agree that a runoff will be an uphill battle, but GA-06 does lean less Republican than GA as a whole. Not to mention I don't really think it's debatable that Abrams is a better candidate than Ossoff.

Was listening to political rewind on my way home from class (Georgia NPR show) and they were specifically talking about how the 8% jump in D voting could probably get someone over the hump statewide but it probably won’t show itself in the Congressional races just bc there’s not a district that’s less than 8 because of the way they’re drawn

In addition to the R+8 6th, there are three districts at R+9 (1st, 7th, and 12th), so a big enough D wave could in theory turn it into a dummymander.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

I do agree that a runoff will be an uphill battle, but GA-06 does lean less Republican than GA as a whole. Not to mention I don't really think it's debatable that Abrams is a better candidate than Ossoff.

Was listening to political rewind on my way home from class (Georgia NPR show) and they were specifically talking about how the 8% jump in D voting could probably get someone over the hump statewide but it probably won’t show itself in the Congressional races just bc there’s not a district that’s less than 8 because of the way they’re drawn

In addition to the R+8 6th, there are three districts at R+9 (1st, 7th, and 12th), so a big enough D wave could in theory turn it into a dummymander.

Georgia is pretty well gerrymandered. I don't see the gerrymander breaking until around 2024 (GA-06 and possibly GA-07 become democratic leaning around this time), but by then, another redistricting cycle happens. The rural areas probably aren't swinging back dem, but the Atlanta metro area is one of the fastest growing metro areas in the country, and the new voters are largely democratic.

[QAnonKelly]

Nope.  Averaging the Cook PVI's for the state (source), the statewide lean is R+5.3, while GA-06 is R+8.

Considering the vast majority of the districts are drawn to drown out the influence of black/Democratic votes, the lean for a statewide campaign like Abrams is running is probably even more favorable for Ds.  

Unfortunately the VRA is a bit of a double edged sword in the south. It’s gotten more POC in office but at the same time you’re packing Ds into districts. GA, NC, and FL all use it to their advantage.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

Not the same at all. The 6th district went from Price +30 to Handel +4. Georgia was only Trump +5 in 2016....

Like they said above.. That's not a good comparison at all

[KingSweden]

Nope.  Averaging the Cook PVI's for the state (source), the statewide lean is R+5.3, while GA-06 is R+8.

Considering the vast majority of the districts are drawn to drown out the influence of black/Democratic votes, the lean for a statewide campaign like Abrams is running is probably even more favorable for Ds.  

Unfortunately the VRA is a bit of a double edged sword in the south. It’s gotten more POC in office but at the same time you’re packing Ds into districts. GA, NC, and FL all use it to their advantage.

Wasn’t there a ruling a year or two ago reducing how packed a district has to be to get a “candidate of choice?”

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

Not the same at all. The 6th district went from Price +30 to Handel +4. Georgia was only Trump +5 in 2016....

Like they said above.. That's not a good comparison at all

Yes, because I needed you to come reiterate. I said what I said. Georgia is to the left of the district and it almost flipped with an underwhelming candidate who didn’t live there. Abrams will be formidable and has more demographic advantages than he did.

[Adam Griffin]

Barring an upset in either the 6th or 7th (which I think are long shots, and should still be viewed as flukes until more GE voting patterns are established), the two most prime CD pickups "ancestrally" for Democrats would be the 1st and 12th CDs. I think if any dummymander were to truly crack, it'd show up here. Obviously the 12th was winnable, but I think in the absence of anybody with real local bonafides in the district, that Democratic DNA is effectively purged there.

The 1st is intriguing in that at the state/local level a few years back, the GOP didn't necessarily outnumber DEMs there that much (maybe 55/45 at most); Kingston was just a really strong incumbent who overperformed immensely. It gave the exact same margin to Romney as the 12th did (down to the tenth of a percentage point; 12.x points IIRC) and Democrats missed a real opportunity when Kingston ran for Senate; pretty much every congressional Democratic primary there in recent memory (save for this year) has been an absolute clusterf[inks]k with joke candidates running. Ring is a real organizer, but will it make a dent in what is arguably the most "moderate" district in the state...I don't know.

[Progressive Pessimist]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

‘Forever Boycotting’ lmao

Also lol at Deal throwing Cagle a bone by attacking the Cinema industry

Hollywood South has been a huge economic boon for GA hasn’t it? Between this and Delta cultural conservatism is proving itself quite insistent on nose and face spiting

Yes, it's a very big business here.  Atlanta ranks 10th among cities worldwide, and Georgia 7th among U.S. states, in the number of TV shows and films produced.  Source

I notice a lot of movies now I’ll be all like “hey that’s Atlanta.” And I’ve never been to Atlanta so that’s how you know they film a lot of stuff there haha

They film pretty much all the Marvel movies here now and have for several years. The OG Ant Man was the first and that came out in 2015. The only two they haven’t done here are the last  Thor (bc it was part of Cate Blanchett’s deal to do it) and Captain Marvel that comes out in March (they won a lottery to get a tax credit for California). They’re filming Spider-man right now.

TIL Cate Blanchett hates Atlanta

She and her husband adopted a baby not too long ago and that was her first movie after taking maternity leave so she wanted it to be filmed in Australia.

My comment was tongue in cheek but that’s a really good reason to keep filming close to home. She was awesome in Thor: Ragnarok

I'm probably going off-topic with this: but I freaking love Cate Blanchett. I have a bizarre attraction to her.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Cagle used about $265,000 to travel by plane from Atlanta to his home in Hall County. About 55 miles away and a 20 minute flight. That 55 miles seems like a commute for many people who have to work inside the Perimeter. He also used these tax-payer funded flights to go to fundraising events. What a man of the people

https://twitter.com/ben_brasch/status/1014261508128243713

Guess that's why he decided to criticize the NAACP (and Stacey Abrams) for wanting the Stone Mountain carving removed. Something she said almost 11 months ago, and not once since.

[ON Progressive]

If only we could get a proper scandal on Kemp instead of all of them being on Cagle.

[Adam Griffin]

Starting to dig through the county-level demographic data for the primary...here's a teaser map, showing which racial group was the largest bloc in the Democratic primary (left) and the gubernatorial results (right):

 

Might look a tad familiar:

[Rookie Yinzer]

As someone who just recently lived in Carroll County for five years, I would not have pegged a plurality of the Democratic electorate being white at all. I guess the county was just more demographically white than I realized.

[KingSweden]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

‘Forever Boycotting’ lmao

Also lol at Deal throwing Cagle a bone by attacking the Cinema industry

Hollywood South has been a huge economic boon for GA hasn’t it? Between this and Delta cultural conservatism is proving itself quite insistent on nose and face spiting

Yes, it's a very big business here.  Atlanta ranks 10th among cities worldwide, and Georgia 7th among U.S. states, in the number of TV shows and films produced.  Source

I notice a lot of movies now I’ll be all like “hey that’s Atlanta.” And I’ve never been to Atlanta so that’s how you know they film a lot of stuff there haha

They film pretty much all the Marvel movies here now and have for several years. The OG Ant Man was the first and that came out in 2015. The only two they haven’t done here are the last  Thor (bc it was part of Cate Blanchett’s deal to do it) and Captain Marvel that comes out in March (they won a lottery to get a tax credit for California). They’re filming Spider-man right now.

TIL Cate Blanchett hates Atlanta

She and her husband adopted a baby not too long ago and that was her first movie after taking maternity leave so she wanted it to be filmed in Australia.

My comment was tongue in cheek but that’s a really good reason to keep filming close to home. She was awesome in Thor: Ragnarok

I'm probably going off-topic with this: but I freaking love Cate Blanchett. I have a bizarre attraction to her.

She’s a great actress. Consistently the best thing in most things she’s in. Ocean’s 8 she was the best part besides Anne Hathaway IMO

[QAnonKelly]

Ran the Peachtree this morning. Suprisingly didn’t see any signs or shirts for the governor’s runoff or really anything. Saw one Abrams sign. Usually an election year it’s pretty political.

[Adam Griffin]

As someone who just recently lived in Carroll County for five years, I would not have pegged a plurality of the Democratic electorate being white at all. I guess the county was just more demographically white than I realized.

It actually surprised me, too. As far as its neighbors go, Polk shocked me in reverse; I always knew that Cedartown and the surrounding area had a sizable black population (by North GA standards), but until very recently - at least through 2012 - Democrats were still dominating at the local level (and Rick Crawford held on there until 2012), so the white fall-off there must have been very fast and steep (just like in Chattooga, which still has a majority local Democratic delegation, but saw 70% of primary voters pull a GOP ballot this year: not a good sign). Still, though, Polk stands out from the rest of the region in this measurement.

Here are the exact figures for Carroll:

Carroll:
1265   40.93% Black
1531   49.53% White
41   1.33% Latino
11   0.36% Asian
30   0.97% Other
213   6.89% Unknown


For that matter, anybody who's interested in the breakdowns, here's a spreadsheet with all the data (plurality/majority group for each county is shaded red).

GA-2018 Democratic Primary by Race/County

[Adam Griffin]

[Torrain]

Debate tonight between Cagle and Kemp:
https://www.wrbl.com/news/georgia/tonight-gop-gubernatorial-run-off-debate-between-cagle-and-kemp/1284487381

[Rookie Yinzer]

In addition to the obvious battlegrounds like Cobb, Henry, and Gwinnett, I will be looking for any dents Abrams can make in Hall and Forsyth counties. She and her team are making a concerted effort to register and turn out households where Spanish is the primary language, and David Kim's potential candidacy in GA-07 may bring out some otherwise absent D-leaning/Independent Asians in Forsyth.

[QAnonKelly]

They were talking on the news tonight about how Suntrust Park has blown a hole in Cobb County’s budget. I know they’ve also had to raise property taxes to pay for it. Now they’re considering closing parks and libraries or raising property taxes again to make up the defecit. All this came from a corrupt back alley deal from the former commissioner. It’s ridiculous that such a wealthy county is having these problems. Do you guys think these budget issues could have an affect on how the county voted on the county level and the state/ national level? HRC won it and the D/R split for the primary was only something like 300 votes this year

[pbrower2a]

When Atlanta suburbs follow the pattern of suburbs outside of the South and start going D as a response to the anti-intellectualism of the GOP. Georgia becomes the Illinois of the South -- safe D even in a wave year for statewide elections for Democrats. As with Illinois, areas outside greater Chicago and Atlanta will be strongly Republican on the whole, but Greater Atlanta and Greater Chicago will decide the state's elections. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Republican SoS candidate David Belle Isle is trying to get his runoff opponent, Brad Raffensperger, disqualified: https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-gop-secretary-state-candidate-seeks-rival-disqualification/BWi2EkPCwwRFTqIZHkeXrL/.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I actually met Brian Kemp at a grocery store earlier this morning. I told him how cool it was to meet him in person, but I didn’t want to be a douche and bother him and ask him for photos or anything.
He said, “Oh, like you’re doing now?”
I was taken aback, and all I could say was “Huh?” but he kept cutting me off and going “huh? huh? huh?” and closing his hand shut in front of my face. I walked away and continued with my shopping, and I heard him chuckle as I walked off. When I came to pay for my stuff up front I saw him trying to walk out the doors with like fifteen Milky Ways in his hands without paying.
The girl at the counter was very nice about it and professional, and was like “Sir, you need to pay for those first.” At first he kept pretending to be tired and not hear her, but eventually turned back around and brought them to the counter.
When she took one of the bars and started scanning it multiple times, he stopped her and told her to scan them each individually “to prevent any electrical infetterence,” and then turned around and winked at me. I don’t even think that’s a word. After she scanned each bar and put them in a bag and started to say the price, he kept interrupting her by yawning really loudly.

[America Needs R'hllor]

I actually met Brian Kemp at a grocery store earlier this morning. I told him how cool it was to meet him in person, but I didn’t want to be a douche and bother him and ask him for photos or anything.
He said, “Oh, like you’re doing now?”
I was taken aback, and all I could say was “Huh?” but he kept cutting me off and going “huh? huh? huh?” and closing his hand shut in front of my face. I walked away and continued with my shopping, and I heard him chuckle as I walked off. When I came to pay for my stuff up front I saw him trying to walk out the doors with like fifteen Milky Ways in his hands without paying.
The girl at the counter was very nice about it and professional, and was like “Sir, you need to pay for those first.” At first he kept pretending to be tired and not hear her, but eventually turned back around and brought them to the counter.
When she took one of the bars and started scanning it multiple times, he stopped her and told her to scan them each individually “to prevent any electrical infetterence,” and then turned around and winked at me. I don’t even think that’s a word. After she scanned each bar and put them in a bag and started to say the price, he kept interrupting her by yawning really loudly.

.....Wtf? This has to be a joke? It sounds like something one would dream, lol.