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  Georgia's Very Own Megathread!
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The love that set me free
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« Reply #25 on: November 18, 2012, 05:49:36 pm »

Jbrase's map would crumble like a folding chair during Sandy during 2010, or just about any midterm when black turnout wasn't at 2008 levels. That could end up a 13-1 map with 7 being the only holdout. Even in 2006 black turnout was awful in parts of Georgia, that's why Barrow almost lost a Kerry district during a Democratic wave. My map above was more cautious.
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« Reply #26 on: November 18, 2012, 06:03:29 pm »

The D districts might not be safe, but they are there lol.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #27 on: November 20, 2012, 05:47:56 pm »

For the record,

Georgia 1992 congressional map:



Georgia 2002 congressional map:



Georgia 2006 congressional map:





Georgia's current map is at the link here
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Benj
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« Reply #28 on: November 20, 2012, 11:03:54 pm »

Here's a different 7-7 Dem gerrymander of Georgia (7 Dem PVI districts, six of which are quite safe and one of which is safe for its incumbent), maintaining four black-VAP majority districts (three in Atlanta, one in SW Georgia). Definitely could be more rigorous; one of the Atanta districts is still 64% black VAP. At that point I think you'd just be shoring up already safe seats, though.

Anyway. (All demographic data is in VAP; all election data is Obama-McCain 2008.)



GA-1
31W, 54B, 10H, 3A
78O, 22M

GA-2
34W, 53B, 8H, 4A
67O, 33M

GA-3
27W, 64B, 4H, 3A
78O, 22M

GA-4
49W, 19B, 21H, 9A
62O, 37M

GA-5
55W, 37B, 5H, 2A
54O, 46M

GA-6
52W, 40B, 5H, 2A
58O, 42M

GA-7
43W, 51B, 4H, 1A
61O, 39M

Plus seven very R seats (the Gwinnett-Fulton seat being the most "marginal" at 62% McCain).

I figured Barrow would want a seat that's not too safely Democratic to avoid a primary; 54% Obama in 2008 should be plenty enough to keep him safe without risking a primary, especially as the seat is very consistent with his past Savannah-Augusta alignment where he's well-known. I think this district is actually more Democratic than the 2006-2012 iteration and is way safer than the seat he held in 2012.

As for the other seats... a fourth black-majority VAP seat in the Atlanta metro is not possible without some extreme gerrymandering and extensions out to Newnan and other outer exurbs (even then it might be tough). Instead, I went for a safe D seat in the white parts of Atlanta, north DeKalb and the Hispanic/Asian parts of Gwinnett, which creates a very solid D seat. It could be much more D (there's excess black population in the three black seats), but I thought that was unnecessary, and this map is much neater in the Atlanta metro.

In another decade, a fifth D seat in the Atlanta area will probably be possible, even with four black VAP majority seats, since the black population is growing rapidly and there are a significant number of white liberals and Hispanics in the area who can be combined into a fifth seat.

The other new D seat is obviously the Athens-Macon-Augusta seat, which at 58% Obama is fairly solid though not rock-solid. It's dependent on black and student turnout, unfortunately, but that can't be helped. I boosted the Obama vote significantly by snaking around south Georgia to put black towns in this seat and white towns in the south Georgia seat; with a much more natural border, it would be about 55% Obama (still D PVI, but much less so).

Any questions?
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« Reply #29 on: November 23, 2012, 09:20:18 pm »

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Bacon King
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« Reply #30 on: November 30, 2012, 06:32:39 am »

It's time for the first edition of

GEORGIA 2014 RACE WATCH

  • Chambliss is obviously running for reelection and has $1.4 million in the bank.
  • Tom Price sounds like he's willing to jump in the race, especially after he lost the vote for GOP Conference Chairman. He has $1.5 million in his campaign account.
  • Erick Erickson is giving "prayerful consideration" to a Senate run after being approached by "Serious People" about it. Sounds like he'll run.
  • It's fairly obvious at this point that Karen Handel is in; she's having her surrogates test the waters in a major way.
  • Paul Broun has also left the door open for a Senate run. Graves is another question mark.
  • Gingrey, Westmoreland, and Kingston have explicitly said they weren't in.
  • The Reverend Doctor Herman Cain is not running. Sad

    Also, on the Democratic side, John Barrow has ruled out any possibility of running for statewide office in 2014.



    It's looking like a very exciting race. Norquist is after Chambliss's head and nobody else really likes him anyway so the Republican Primary for Senate is looking like the headline match. I don't know of any GOP challengers to Nathan Deal (it's looking likely that he'll run for reelection).

    I don't know of any Democratic candidates for either race. With Barrow taking his name out of contention, the only people I can think of are Kasim Reed and maaaybe Jason Carter. It's also possible that a former office-holder like Thurbert Baker or Roy Barnes (lol) might try to run again?

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« Reply #31 on: December 01, 2012, 02:44:11 pm »

Also, on the Democratic side, John Barrow has ruled out any possibility of running for statewide office in 2014.
Well, damn. Running against whoever comes out of that trainwreck of a primary would have been the smart move to make.
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« Reply #32 on: December 01, 2012, 02:53:27 pm »

Is it safe to say Deal will win re-election, or are people realizing how big of a scumbag he is?
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« Reply #33 on: December 01, 2012, 03:01:17 pm »

Erickson said he's not running for Senate.
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« Reply #34 on: December 01, 2012, 03:06:36 pm »

Price, Handel, or Graves, I really don't care. Any of them would be better than Shameless.

(I throw in Graves purely for his PATRIOT Act extension and NDAA votes.)
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Bacon King
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« Reply #35 on: December 01, 2012, 03:12:31 pm »
« Edited: December 01, 2012, 03:16:05 pm by Bacon King »

Is it safe to say Deal will win re-election, or are people realizing how big of a scumbag he is?

While it doesn't look like any significant names are considering it, he's not exactly popular among significant elements of the state GOP. It's possible but doubtful.

However, if Kasim Reed runs for Governor he'll be able to make a race of it, at least. Edit: Kasim Reed has stated he's running for reelection in 2013 and has ruled out a Senate run, but didn't say anything about a run for Governor.
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« Reply #36 on: December 01, 2012, 05:17:20 pm »

Is it safe to say Deal will win re-election, or are people realizing how big of a scumbag he is?

While it doesn't look like any significant names are considering it, he's not exactly popular among significant elements of the state GOP. It's possible but doubtful.

However, if Kasim Reed runs for Governor he'll be able to make a race of it, at least. Edit: Kasim Reed has stated he's running for reelection in 2013 and has ruled out a Senate run, but didn't say anything about a run for Governor.

Reed is the only viable candidate for this race it seems, he's somewhat popular among Republicans (not that it'd make much difference), and Deal has never been part of the GOP "in-crowd" here.  It would be a nice race, at least. Smiley
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nolesfan2011
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« Reply #37 on: December 01, 2012, 10:42:08 pm »

Notable: PPP polling is gonna come out with a GA primary poll soon, they polled Price and Broun against Chambliss on the GOP side and Barrow, Reed and Jason Carter on the Dem side (assuming for senate dunno about Gov).

I don't think Barrow, Carter or Reed are going to run for either though (Carter may in 2018 or 16 senate seat, Reed may not ever move beyond Mayor of ATL, Barrow has base issues and prolly just stays where he is unless he were to lose)

 





Is it safe to say Deal will win re-election, or are people realizing how big of a scumbag he is?

While it doesn't look like any significant names are considering it, he's not exactly popular among significant elements of the state GOP. It's possible but doubtful.

However, if Kasim Reed runs for Governor he'll be able to make a race of it, at least. Edit: Kasim Reed has stated he's running for reelection in 2013 and has ruled out a Senate run, but didn't say anything about a run for Governor.

Reed is the only viable candidate for this race it seems, he's somewhat popular among Republicans (not that it'd make much difference), and Deal has never been part of the GOP "in-crowd" here.  It would be a nice race, at least. Smiley
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« Reply #38 on: December 01, 2012, 10:53:36 pm »

Ugh, why would they not poll Handel? How disappointing - she's my favorite to win this seat, but I don't know if she can get past the good ole' boys of the GOP with the run-off system.
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nolesfan2011
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« Reply #39 on: December 02, 2012, 11:25:23 am »

I don't see what part of the electorate Handel fills though, the people that would vote for her probably aren't *that* upset with Chambliss given that she was always viewed as a more moderate southern Republican rather than a Tea Party Republican.

Sure she got some ultra conservative bonafides over the Komen/PP thing but that isn't enough to make her capture the wing of the electorate that really hates Chambliss and won't vote for him in a primary no matter what.

I just don't see how her issue stances will come down that far to the right of Chambliss, thus he will just say "why are you running"? compared to someone like Tom Price who has an actual bone to pick and is right of Chambliss on issues.

On the plus side she does do ok in Metro ATL counties, so maybe she could pick that off from Chambliss, I'm ot sure

Ugh, why would they not poll Handel? How disappointing - she's my favorite to win this seat, but I don't know if she can get past the good ole' boys of the GOP with the run-off system.
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nolesfan2011
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« Reply #40 on: December 02, 2012, 11:38:22 am »
« Edited: December 02, 2012, 11:45:03 am by nolesfan2011 »

Now, I'm long term cynical of GA Dem prospects to win anything statewide barring a major scandal plagued candidate running on the GOP side or a super conservative zealot like an Akin and the main reason why is they have hit a ceiling it seems, and they don't wanna do anything about it until "demographics" kick in.

Dems are stuck at 45-47% during  Prez election years with an Obama coalition turnout, and in off years they dip down below 46%, they don't seem to have any agenda or plan or effort in place to win the other 5-7% they need to win a statewide race and they are disorganized off the hilt.

They have no bench to really speak of, and they botch a lot of the state house/senate races too.  I mean they couldn't even recruit enough candidates for office this year, if every Democrat who had ran for state senate and state house this year had won, the Democrats still would not have a majority in the state legislature, that is plain crazy.

The people they find to run are often less than stellar anyway, and the district packing the GOP has done sure hasn't helped matters. It just seems plain impossible to get over the hump.. especially when all you can find is weak candidates to run against openly corrupt members of the legislature, who even the GOP doesn't like very much.

As for the congressional seats, in a district that includes the quite liberal Athens (UGA) the state party still couldn't find a candidate to run against Paul "pits of hell" Broun (even just a token candidate), The metro ATL based districts of Price and Woodall aren't even close though they really could be, and they didn't even bother to really try in the 2 north GA seats.

They just seem content to have their majority minority seats+Barrow and not bother beyond that.

I didn't even mention the fact the State Party has horrible fundraising and is always chronically short of cash compared to the well endowed GA GOP, and again is always infighting, yet the same people that don't seem to ever get the job done keep trading seats and positions.

Then they have a big super party every time they win some podunk nonpartisan mayors race or something, celebrating abysmal performance overall.


I also tend to think there will be a much weaker field than Dems expect for the Senate/Gov races, very likely to get retreads like Thurmond or Baker running again, being handed the nomination in soft primaries, then losing by 10 points in the general elex.  

Plus Dems have a bit of a racial issue, in the sense that a majority of the primary electorate is now black/hispanic but a majority of the state electorate is still white (the long term white flight from dems to gop in the south has hurt the party diversity).  The black/hispanic electorate is going to want a certain type of candidate, that may not be best for a statewide election, and the way a primary campaign is going to go would be vastly different from a general elex campaign.

Throw in the ATL and Athens white hipster liberal types.. and you just have a mess, a real motley crew, one group wants conservative moderates, the other wants ultra "liberal" firebrands who praise Obama at every turn and shouts epithets at the Tea Party, and the 3rd group wants people focused on diversity issues.. and it is gonna be hard to find a candidate that seemingly manages to do all 3.

Personally I just want relative moderates who have populist tendencies (non corporate, non bought) are involved with the issues of the minority communities (immigration, equality, poverty, housing, unemployment etc.) but still manage to talk to the state as a whole and can win not just the metro areas but the rural areas as well.

Not to mention not being unpopular (Roy Barnes) and a retread.. and they have to have enough energy to campaign, they can't just sit back and not bother.
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nolesfan2011
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« Reply #41 on: December 02, 2012, 11:47:42 am »

And for the record my favorite recent GA candidates were people like Carol and Dubose Porter, David Poythress, Rand Knight, Dale Cardwell, Brian Westlake, Michael Mills etc. those are the types I think can win, yet most of them didn't make it out of primaries and we ended up with much weaker candidates.

Carol Porter was a political novice in a really tough climate (2010) but still managed to garner some GOP support, which was quite amazing given the climate and the partisan split, I thinks he would have won in a non GOP swing year.

Ironically it seems like these same people are either giving up on politics are getting pushed away from the party. I just don't like the elitism that I think has taken hold,

I mean it is all fine and dandy Obama won the national election, but he didn't win the state.. and  hooping and hollering you got the same total you did in 08 isn't that grand.
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Bacon King
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« Reply #42 on: December 02, 2012, 01:11:28 pm »

Excellent analysis nolesfan! And welcome to the forum!

I agree that the state Democratic Party just appears to be in shambles; it's been a decade but it still feels like the party just doesn't know what to do with itself now that it's not eternally in power. I'm hopeful for the future, but it always feels like the party's resurgence is always just one more cycle away.

More funding is essential, of course, but it's a bit hard to get money when you can't get results. Perhaps the party needs a couple of self-funders to run and win (or at least make things genuinely competitive) to prime the pump in that regard. There are tons of big corporations centered in Atlanta- maybe the Democratic Party could get the CEO of a big-name company to run, with a campaigned focused on being a party outsider. Of course, this assumes that the GA Dem's aren't horrible at candidate recruitment, which is yet to be proven.

On that note, a lack of financial support is why candidates like DuBose Porter and David Poythress got nowhere- they barely had enough money to even have a token campaign in the primary. I was an early supporter of Poythress and convinced some of my friends to vote for him, but at the same time I could tell from early on that his campaign wasn't likely to go anywhere.

The thing is, the people you're talking about aren't really getting pushed out of the party, necessarily- the GOP has done it. The 2012 map was absolutely toxic for Democrats in the General Assembly- IIRC there's only like three seats where a white Democrat is representing a majority white district. Everything else is Republican districts or black districts; this caused a ton of damage among what was left of the conservative Democrats in the Assembly.

The party's biggest problem is that we really have no bench. We have no statewide officeholders and our caucus in the legislature is pretty much just Jason Carter, a bunch of African Americans in VRA seats, and a handful of white liberals that'll be replaced by African Americans when they retire. Not saying that black legislators are automatically incapable of running a good statewide campaign, of course, but I doubt that a politician who's never had to appeal to a white constituency will be an easy sell in most of the state.

Don't knock Thurbert Baker, though. He's (sadly) probably the best candidate we have for Senate. It's worth noting that he was a black Attorney General in a southern state for a decade, which is remarkable in itself, and in 2006 he had the best margin of any Democrat statewide. He was even endorsed by a bunch of conservative organizations like the Georgia Sheriff's Association so he's definitely got some credible moderate appeal.

I wish I could do more to volunteer or something but there isn't really a local Democratic Party in my area- which, actually, probably says a lot in itself.
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« Reply #43 on: December 02, 2012, 01:18:16 pm »

Interesting analyses, guys. Smiley

What do you think will happen first-Georgia becoming a purple state at the Presidential level, or the Georgia state Democratic Party recovering? My money's on the former. Tongue 
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« Reply #44 on: December 02, 2012, 01:27:39 pm »

Demographics alone will keep Georgia Dems above the 45% level with even below average statewide candidates, but it won't get them over the hump.  Who knows though, in 2016 depending on how the map looks, if the Dem nominee has some money to spend they might put some in GA and see what they can do (same applies to Arizona), just bypass the state party and hire their own state staff and stuff.

Especially if that nominee has some blue collar appeal (like a Clinton, Schweitzer, Sherrod Brown), don't see someone like a Cuomo or an O'Malley doing that though.


Interesting analyses, guys. Smiley

What do you think will happen first-Georgia becoming a purple state at the Presidential level, or the Georgia state Democratic Party recovering? My money's on the former. Tongue 
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nolesfan2011
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« Reply #45 on: December 02, 2012, 01:38:22 pm »

Thanks man, appreciated.

and yea they do seem unsure what to do with themselves, they aren't even that effective in the opposition, and have a hard time deciding what to oppose/support and what to protest about and what to not make an issue over.

The CEO idea sounds fine, but I don't know any GA CEO's/business leaders who are really politically involved Dems? maybe people from the black business community? certainly not anyone from Chick-Fil-A Cheesy

They are horrible at candidate recruitment though, from county level up..

I agree about the money thing, they never even had a chance.. I also forgot to add to the list of unopposed people, Austin Scott seat, not that it isn't lean R, but it had been held by a Dem for years before 2010 and the Dems didn't even bother to put up a candidate... craziness.

The maps are horrible I agree, the problem is the Dems caucus wasn't unified and didn't raise hell about it, because to be bluntly honest, the black members of the caucus were fine with the maps because it gave them incumbent protection (cause of all the minority seat packing). So they just rolled over and let the white Dems get shafted out of seats, and hurt the party as a whole.

The white liberals in the legislature, and a lot of the AA leaders are fine but the problem is they are just kind of stuck where they are, not really likely to lose their jobs, but not likely to move up the ladder either, regardless of ambition.

Baker just seems uncharasmatic and boring... I some random party activist type would run just to raise attention to issues and maybe catch fire, doesn't have to be an elected official, just someone who would be able to get in the primary debates and tour the state and stuff, see what happens.

The problem is, Dems in this state don't seem to have enough of an "indie" streak in them, their isn't a lot of Joe Manchin, Jon Tester, Bob Kerrey, Heidi Heitkamp types who just run off the issues of their state/region and ignore the national party and national party leaders, which is why they don't win.

People too obsessed with "defending President Obama" while getting crushed, instead of running off the issues of the state.. I mean just take a look at the state party website, it ain't much different from the DNC site, which isn't good at all.

Meanwhile Jon Tester is running off issues like delisting wolves.. and he wins in a (light) red state.

Failure in rural areas is an issue too.. given that I am involved in the party, and have been involved in the party (mostly at the county level) I won't comment too heavily on individual counties but yea I see your point.

Excellent analysis nolesfan! And welcome to the forum!

I agree that the state Democratic Party just appears to be in shambles; it's been a decade but it still feels like the party just doesn't know what to do with itself now that it's not eternally in power. I'm hopeful for the future, but it always feels like the party's resurgence is always just one more cycle away.

More funding is essential, of course, but it's a bit hard to get money when you can't get results. Perhaps the party needs a couple of self-funders to run and win (or at least make things genuinely competitive) to prime the pump in that regard. There are tons of big corporations centered in Atlanta- maybe the Democratic Party could get the CEO of a big-name company to run, with a campaigned focused on being a party outsider. Of course, this assumes that the GA Dem's aren't horrible at candidate recruitment, which is yet to be proven.

On that note, a lack of financial support is why candidates like DuBose Porter and David Poythress got nowhere- they barely had enough money to even have a token campaign in the primary. I was an early supporter of Poythress and convinced some of my friends to vote for him, but at the same time I could tell from early on that his campaign wasn't likely to go anywhere.

The thing is, the people you're talking about aren't really getting pushed out of the party, necessarily- the GOP has done it. The 2012 map was absolutely toxic for Democrats in the General Assembly- IIRC there's only like three seats where a white Democrat is representing a majority white district. Everything else is Republican districts or black districts; this caused a ton of damage among what was left of the conservative Democrats in the Assembly.

The party's biggest problem is that we really have no bench. We have no statewide officeholders and our caucus in the legislature is pretty much just Jason Carter, a bunch of African Americans in VRA seats, and a handful of white liberals that'll be replaced by African Americans when they retire. Not saying that black legislators are automatically incapable of running a good statewide campaign, of course, but I doubt that a politician who's never had to appeal to a white constituency will be an easy sell in most of the state.

Don't knock Thurbert Baker, though. He's (sadly) probably the best candidate we have for Senate. It's worth noting that he was a black Attorney General in a southern state for a decade, which is remarkable in itself, and in 2006 he had the best margin of any Democrat statewide. He was even endorsed by a bunch of conservative organizations like the Georgia Sheriff's Association so he's definitely got some credible moderate appeal.

I wish I could do more to volunteer or something but there isn't really a local Democratic Party in my area- which, actually, probably says a lot in itself.

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« Reply #46 on: December 02, 2012, 01:40:30 pm »

Like Colorado and Virginia, a national candidate spending money and trying to support registration efforts could help get out a lot of Democratic votes too. There are a lot of people who don't vote because they feel their vote doesn't count due to the electoral college and also because they aren't interested in local races. These people tend to be Democratic leaning.
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nolesfan2011
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« Reply #47 on: December 02, 2012, 01:40:51 pm »

My personal politics and my personal experience in the state, and the state party is a microcosm of what is wrong really. Their is a disconnect between the interest groups that do good work (like unions, enviro groups, NAACP etc.) and the official "democratic party" that demands loyalty oaths and litmus tests, they hate boat shakers..
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nolesfan2011
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« Reply #48 on: December 02, 2012, 01:43:10 pm »

That is helpful, I tend to view an effort like that as being like the Nevada GOP and the Romney camp though.  Nevada GOP was so messed up it dragged down separate Romney efforts in the state, even though they tried to go around the party.  Dean Heller won though..

At least the GA Dems aren't as bad off as TN, AL, MS and LA dems though. we're "lucky"

Like Colorado and Virginia, a national candidate spending money and trying to support registration efforts could help get out a lot of Democratic votes too. There are a lot of people who don't vote because they feel their vote doesn't count due to the electoral college and also because they aren't interested in local races. These people tend to be Democratic leaning.
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« Reply #49 on: December 02, 2012, 11:54:12 pm »

Price and Woodal's districts are way too Republican than they should be. They have a growing minority population and a ton of soft Republicans who vote GOP but are fine with things like gay marriage. A pro business Democrat, maybe a CEO, who possesses an air of independence on economic issues while holding the party line on social issues could certainly give Price a run for his money in the affluent 6th district, although I'm not sure he or she could win- just give the GOP a good scare.

Another thing that caught my eye. Obama lost Georgia by 300K votes. Which is a lot, but I can almost guarantee you that there are at least 300,000 or more Democratic leaning minorities out there (blacks, hispanics, asians) who could close the gap if they just bothered to register and vote in elections. Maybe making Georgia competitive isn't just about winning over moderates, maybe it's more about activating the fast growing minority population.

I have another question for you guys about the game plan: Should the Democratic Party here in GA try to fuse a coalition between minorities, Atlanta, and moderate suburbanites as we have seen in places like Virginia (NoVa) or should they try to appeal again to white voters in rural Georgia?

On the one hand, the moderate suburbs could be low hanging fruit if the Democrats here made a play. They're probably most likely to be turned off by the antiquated social views of the GOP. We've seen the same plan work in Northern Virginia and the Research Triangle. Many suburban areas of Atlanta are just as affluent and well educated so it makes some sense.
   
On the other hand, the Georgia GOP is increasingly becoming dominated by tea party types in the suburbs and exurbs (the "no new taxes EVER" crowd). Perhaps Democrats could convince rural voters that the Georgia GOP isn't taking care of their needs anymore. It seems to me like these voters in poorer areas are actually fine with activist government if they think it benefits them- one of the reasons Sanford Bishop does so well and John Barrow held on to his seat this year.

Whaddya think?
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