Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

I mailed my ABM application on Tuesday; I'm trying ABM this year - for the second time. The first time was in our special state Senate election last year...in which I never received my ballot and had to vote on Election Day. They claimed they never received it (in that election, we got over 100 people to vote by mail and it was a record for the county + we won among those ballots, but alas, mine never showed).

I'm pushing ABM to everybody but my personal experience does have me a bit apprehensive at how accurate the county BoE is at getting ballots delivered. It's a good way to especially get older votes cast; we still have a lot of 80+ year-olds here who are Democratic but who can't vote due to medical issues and so forth.

[QAnonKelly]

Y’all think Kemp should recuse himself for at least the Gubernatorial election? They were talking about it on GBP yesterday. There’s not precedence for it but there’s also not precedence for what has happened either. I think Barrow is going to win regardless but I’ll be glad to have someone come in and clean up this mess

[libertpaulian]

Did Allison Grimes recuse herself during the election against Cocaine Mitch in 2014?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp is just incompetent period. I don't think he is going to try and change votes or anything, so no he doesn't need to step down but he is just so lackadaisical about Russian hacking and the vulnerability of our machines. Constantly telling us there's nothing wrong when everyone and their mother is saying "THERE'S SOMETHING WRONG!" I would be voting absentee if Cagle was the nominee too. I want a paper trail of my vote and for it to be counted with an optical scanner.

[aaroncd107]

Ok, how do you all rank the statewide offices this year, from most to least likely to be won by a D?

[Podgy the Bear]

Ok, how do you all rank the statewide offices this year, from most to least likely to be won by a D?

Secretary of State
Lieutenant Governor
Governor
Attorney General

[libertpaulian]

Ok, how do you all rank the statewide offices this year, from most to least likely to be won by a D?

Secretary of State
Lieutenant Governor
Governor
Attorney General

You think LG is more likely than GOV?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Personally I think there will be some drop off by Republicans down the ballot. Democrats are angry and want to vote GOP out from top to bottom so the Dems may be able to snatch a PSC seat, Superintendent of Schools, or Labor Commissioner. In the main races I would say:

Secretary of State
Lt. Governor
Governor
Attorney General

At the end of the day no one really knows or cares who Geoff Duncan and Sarah Riggs Amico are. I can see her riding the female wave on a really good night. The Deplorables (not referring to all Republicans just the racists ) could potentially be out in full force to stop the liberal black chick from becoming Governor. I can see people voting Kemp and then just skipping down to local races.

John Barrow will obviously have huge crossover in GA-12 and benefit from the book in turnout out of the major cities and the Atlanta Metro from Abrams.

[QAnonKelly]

Abrams is on The Daily Show tonight

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams is on The Daily Show tonight

Watched it. I loved how she continues to plead her case for going out and converting non-voters to voters instead of Republicans to Democrats.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GJdPDGddZp8

I was watching Political Rewind on GPB,  they had a pollster Mark Roundtree on who revealed some numbers from his latest poll, it was Kemp 46, Abrams 45, Metz (Libertarian) 3, the poll sample also reflects Presidential level turnout from African-Americans.

ETA: And I see her tacking to the middle on the issue of her historic candidacy when she said:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Doesn't completely alienate the people organizing for her to make history, but also eases the "tensions" of some voters who don't like hearing about race.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Thoughts on this attack ad?

https://youtu.be/nudqsQHN4q4

And Abrams’s response?

https://youtu.be/OSCgaMEhfzc

[Zaybay]

Thoughts on this attack ad?

https://youtu.be/nudqsQHN4q4

And Abrams’s response?

https://youtu.be/OSCgaMEhfzc

The ad from the RGA is rather poor, the Christmas analogy loses its luster as its the middle of Summer. I dont like that Abrams immediately went defensive, but she was able to really spin it well into a debate on healthcare, which was excellent. Thats my thoughts anyway.

[henster]

I just don't see her surviving the debt issue, candidates in tough states almost have to be flawless. It's something that will give a lot of voters pause no matter the explanation.

[IceSpear]

If you're explaining, you're losing. Why even acknowledge their dumb ad?

[wesmoorenerd]

I just don't see her surviving the debt issue, candidates in tough states almost have to be flawless. It's something that will give a lot of voters pause no matter the explanation.

If somebody isn't voting for Abrams because of the debt issue, they were never going to vote for Abrams anyway.

[Adam Griffin]

They must be seeing it having an effect. I can tell you that in my part of the state, the #1 anti-Abrams talking point I'm hearing is about that (well, other than "guns!" and "Stone Mountain", but even then, it's probably still outpacing those, too).

[Rookie Yinzer]

We could have paper ballots by November if Judge Amy Totenberg rules it.

https://www.wabe.org/paper-ballots-in-georgia-by-november-look-to-virginia/

The right will probably argue it’s too close to an election, but three months is plenty of time.

[JRP1994]

If you're explaining, you're losing. Why even acknowledge their dumb ad?

The "ignore unfounded attack it goes away" strategy did work well for President Kerry

[KingSweden]

They must be seeing it having an effect. I can tell you that in my part of the state, the #1 anti-Abrams talking point I'm hearing is about that (well, other than "guns!" and "Stone Mountain", but even then, it's probably still outpacing those, too).

I imagine the debt thing sticks in the draw of Cobb and Gwinnett types more than Stone Mountain does

[IceSpear]

If you're explaining, you're losing. Why even acknowledge their dumb ad?

The "ignore unfounded attack it goes away" strategy did work well for President Kerry

And the "constantly respond, apologize, and try to explain it away" strategy worked great for President Clinton, while the "ignore and refuse to apologize for any controversy, including legitimate ones" strategy worked out horribly for private citizen Donald Trump.

[libertpaulian]

If you're explaining, you're losing. Why even acknowledge their dumb ad?

The "ignore unfounded attack it goes away" strategy did work well for President Kerry

And the "constantly respond, apologize, and try to explain it away" strategy worked great for President Clinton, while the "ignore and refuse to apologize for any controversy, including legitimate ones" strategy worked out horribly for private citizen Donald Trump.

She seems to have made her "apologize and explain" ad and has now largely moved on.

[SCNCmod]

They must be seeing it having an effect. I can tell you that in my part of the state, the #1 anti-Abrams talking point I'm hearing is about that (well, other than "guns!" and "Stone Mountain", but even then, it's probably still outpacing those, too).

It never really affected Rubio... I wonder why it is having more of an effect with Abrams.

[Adam Griffin]

They must be seeing it having an effect. I can tell you that in my part of the state, the #1 anti-Abrams talking point I'm hearing is about that (well, other than "guns!" and "Stone Mountain", but even then, it's probably still outpacing those, too).

It never really affected Rubio... I wonder why it is having more of an effect with Abrams.

It may not be as big of an issue in suburban areas as it is elsewhere. Rubio's GA support was heavily concentrated in the suburbs, but besides being a general election, I imagine suburban GA has a better understanding (if not downright sympathy) with the notion of debt being complex and taxes being complicated. On the surface, this strikes me as an issue that would only create headwinds with the poorly-educated (or just poor, who would never find themselves in a situation where they owed $50k to anybody). Though if ads are being ran in the ATL market (I wouldn't know: I'm in Chatt market and we get ignored always because of that), then it must be impacting something.

[GeorgiaModerate]

They must be seeing it having an effect. I can tell you that in my part of the state, the #1 anti-Abrams talking point I'm hearing is about that (well, other than "guns!" and "Stone Mountain", but even then, it's probably still outpacing those, too).

It never really affected Rubio... I wonder why it is having more of an effect with Abrams.

It may not be as big of an issue in suburban areas as it is elsewhere. Rubio's GA support was heavily concentrated in the suburbs, but besides being a general election, I imagine suburban GA has a better understanding (if not downright sympathy) with the notion of debt being complex and taxes being complicated. On the surface, this strikes me as an issue that would only create headwinds with the poorly-educated (or just poor, who would never find themselves in a situation where they owed $50k to anybody). Though if ads are being ran in the ATL market (I wouldn't know: I'm in Chatt market and we get ignored always because of that), then it must be impacting something.

I've seen the Kemp ad on channel 11 in Atlanta.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm sorry but I don't believe anyone who was planning to vote for Abrams is going to stay home or cross-over and vote Kemp because of the debt story. It's such a lazy attack. Unfortunately Kemp is going to continue to run his race in the gutter and probably will be running more ads to rile up low information voters instead of articulately explaining why he wants the job and what he'll do.