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  Georgia's Very Own Megathread!
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Author Topic: Georgia's Very Own Megathread!  (Read 227563 times)
libertpaulian
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« Reply #2600 on: August 16, 2018, 07:18:48 pm »

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.
The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2601 on: August 16, 2018, 07:33:07 pm »

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.
The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.


TBH though this kind of activity is a classic double standard. Right now we are exalting her for reaching out to areas that are typically off the map, but if she loses we will be blaming her for sending resources to areas she shouldn't have. It is not that it doesn't deserve attention, it is just that we the observers will overplay its significance - in either direction.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2602 on: August 16, 2018, 07:36:08 pm »

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.
The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.


TBH though this kind of activity is a classic double standard. Right now we are exalting her for reaching out to areas that are typically off the map, but if she loses we will be blaming her for sending resources to areas she shouldn't have. It is not that it doesn't deserve attention, it is just that we the observers will overplay its significance - in either direction.
If she loses by more than Hillary did, then we can direct some sort of fault toward her.

If she loses by Hillary's margin or less, I consider it a moral victory, especially given GA's demographics.
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RFKFan68
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« Reply #2603 on: August 16, 2018, 08:13:04 pm »
« Edited: August 16, 2018, 08:18:12 pm by RFKFan68 »

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.
The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.


TBH though this kind of activity is a classic double standard. Right now we are exalting her for reaching out to areas that are typically off the map, but if she loses we will be blaming her for sending resources to areas she shouldn't have. It is not that it doesn't deserve attention, it is just that we the observers will overplay its significance - in either direction.
Democratic bastions like Athens, Augusta, and Savannah are getting double or triple the paid field staff they had in 2016. The state party is not hurting for resources.  If Abrams loses (which she won’t Smiley ) it’s because she was always going to.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2604 on: August 16, 2018, 08:37:24 pm »

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.
The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.


TBH though this kind of activity is a classic double standard. Right now we are exalting her for reaching out to areas that are typically off the map, but if she loses we will be blaming her for sending resources to areas she shouldn't have. It is not that it doesn't deserve attention, it is just that we the observers will overplay its significance - in either direction.
Democratic bastions like Athens, Augusta, and Savannah are getting double or triple the paid field staff they had in 2016. The state party is not hurting for resources.  If Abrams loses (which she won’t Smiley ) it’s because she was always going to.
What do you think are the necessary demos for an Abrams victory?  Something like 57% white 43% non-white?
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RFKFan68
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« Reply #2605 on: August 16, 2018, 09:00:35 pm »

What do you think are the necessary demos for an Abrams victory?  Something like 57% white 43% non-white?
I posted some numbers a few pages back, but as of today I think/hope she can do this:

White (59%) 25% of vote
Black (31%) 93% of vote
Latino (5%) 70% of vote
Asian (3%) 60% of vote
Other (2%) 55% of vote

I can't stress enough how expansive and far-reaching this field operation is in comparison to Jason Carter. They are digging in deep and this is just the state party's Coordinated Campaign promoting Abrams, Amico, and Democrats down the ballot. The Abrams apparatus themselves are paying people to do nothing but knock on doors for 10 hours a day, and they plan to reach out to 1 million on their own with no overlap with the 3 million voters the state party plans to touch.

And there are like a million political groups who are going to swarm into Georgia once Early Voting starts from trade unions, to AAPI interest groups, Black Pac, Black Economic Alliance, NARAL, Let America Vote, Emily's List, Mijente, National Domestic Workers Alliance, Working Families' Party, etc. Maybe I'm just hopped up on a high of Stacey Abrams but I just don't see how Kemp wins unless it goes to a run off.

Which it won't. Smiley
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DTC
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« Reply #2606 on: August 16, 2018, 09:05:26 pm »

I haven't seen any presence from the Abrams campaign in UGA.

Meanwhile, I see a presence from Turning Point USA all the time.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2607 on: August 16, 2018, 09:06:56 pm »

What do you think are the necessary demos for an Abrams victory?  Something like 57% white 43% non-white?
I posted some numbers a few pages back, but as of today I think/hope she can do this:

White (59%) 25% of vote
Black (31%) 93% of vote
Latino (5%) 70% of vote
Asian (3%) 60% of vote
Other (2%) 55% of vote

I can't stress enough how expansive and far-reaching this field operation is in comparison to Jason Carter. They are digging in deep and this is just the state party's Coordinated Campaign promoting Abrams, Amico, and Democrats down the ballot. The Abrams apparatus themselves are paying people to do nothing but knock on doors for 10 hours a day, and they plan to reach out to 1 million on their own with no overlap with the 3 million voters the state party plans to touch.

And there are like a million political groups who are going to swarm into Georgia once Early Voting starts from trade unions, to AAPI interest groups, Black Pac, Black Economic Alliance, NARAL, Let America Vote, Emily's List, Mijente, National Domestic Workers Alliance, Working Families' Party, etc. Maybe I'm just hopped up on a high of Stacey Abrams but I just don't see how Kemp wins unless it goes to a run off.

Which it won't. Smiley
That's what I meant by "an Abrams victory."  She wins 50.01% (or more!) on Election Night in her own right without having to worry about December.  The next day she can plan what her inaugural party is going to be like.
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RFKFan68
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« Reply #2608 on: August 16, 2018, 09:08:03 pm »

I haven't seen any presence from the Abrams campaign in UGA.
I know for a fact there's a Dawgs for Abrams student organization there. I'm not affiliated with it, so I don't know how well they promote it. Either way, four field organizers are being dispatched to Athens next week. With more on the way.
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DTC
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« Reply #2609 on: August 16, 2018, 09:15:35 pm »

I haven't seen any presence from the Abrams campaign in UGA.
I know for a fact there's a Dawgs for Abrams student organization there. I'm not affiliated with it, so I don't know how well they promote it. Either way, four field organizers are being dispatched to Athens next week. With more on the way.

It exists but I don't see any outreach at all on campus.

Meanwhile the Turning Point dudes are always around.

Come to think of it, hardly any Kemp outreach either besides one guy I know.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #2610 on: August 16, 2018, 09:21:37 pm »

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.
The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.


TBH though this kind of activity is a classic double standard. Right now we are exalting her for reaching out to areas that are typically off the map, but if she loses we will be blaming her for sending resources to areas she shouldn't have. It is not that it doesn't deserve attention, it is just that we the observers will overplay its significance - in either direction.

I don't think anybody who knows the entirety of Georgia and its demographics would make such a diagnosis after the fact (though, to be fair, there are plenty in the party who think that way). It is North Georgia and North Georgia alone that has been denying Democrats victory over the past 10 years, and abandoning the region has only ceded ground to the GOP and atrophied Democratic infrastructure. We've lost a vote statewide for every one we've gained since 2008 and much of it comes from North Georgia. I'd argue that for any persuasion-based outreach, North Georgia is the most opportune area for GA Democrats to learn how to master the strategy in rural areas again, but given its low turnout and huge drop-offs in midterms (particularly in the NW), turnout strategies can produce results as well.

Democrats need to close the margin by like 275k votes to win a majority and you're only realistically going to get half of that out of Metro ATL; maybe another 20% of that out of the remaining urban areas if you're lucky. That leaves another 100k votes or so that have to come from rural Georgia, and South Georgia doesn't have anywhere near enough population to pull those kinds of figures.

Georgia is not Illinois. You cannot win a majority statewide by assuming the major metro can carry the state across the line kicking and screaming (yet). A Democratic candidate who doesn't seriously contest every region of the state is not a serious candidate, and isn't going to win because the votes just aren't there otherwise. We've been in a situation for awhile now where if we could just pull the numbers among whites or rural voters that we had 4-6 years prior, we'd be on the verge of winning pluralities at minimum, but abandoning the areas where those losses are occurring only ensures one set of demographics is cancelled out by the other.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #2611 on: August 16, 2018, 09:25:27 pm »

I haven't seen any presence from the Abrams campaign in UGA.
I know for a fact there's a Dawgs for Abrams student organization there. I'm not affiliated with it, so I don't know how well they promote it. Either way, four field organizers are being dispatched to Athens next week. With more on the way.

It exists but I don't see any outreach at all on campus.

Meanwhile the Turning Point dudes are always around.

Come to think of it, hardly any Kemp outreach either besides one guy I know.
Well, I don't think very many Turning Point cultists are going to be voting Abrams, lol.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #2612 on: August 16, 2018, 09:26:48 pm »

I haven't seen any presence from the Abrams campaign in UGA.

Meanwhile, I see a presence from Turning Point USA all the time.
This is the case at every university. It's almost like a cult at times.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #2613 on: August 16, 2018, 09:29:05 pm »

And I'd point out that I've just given up on prognosticating that "we've reached the bottom". I thought we were there in 2008 (and again in 2012), but then 2016 showed me that Democrats in GA could fall a lot farther than I'd ever imagined possible. I also imagine Abrams is also going to lose ground with the usual likely rural white voters compared to Carter (who really didn't do that badly in rural areas; better than Obama '12 and in some cases Obama '08), so organizing in these areas is necessary both to back-fill additional losses, turn out irregular voters and improve margins.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2614 on: August 16, 2018, 09:36:54 pm »

A side comment, but I went to listen to a Jason kander live interview in SF yesterday, and he considers Abrams: one of the top three smartest people he knows, a personal friends, and the presumptive favorite to win. He will probably be pouring a lot of money into here through his FairVote group because of both the recent controversy over the voting process, and the fact that the republican nominee is Kemp.
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NoobMaster69
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« Reply #2615 on: August 17, 2018, 09:33:05 am »

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/17/opinion/columnists/stacey-abrams-georgia-governor-debt.html

Pretty much sums up my opinion about Abrams’s financial situation
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jk2020
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« Reply #2616 on: August 17, 2018, 10:24:52 am »

A side comment, but I went to listen to a Jason kander live interview in SF yesterday, and he considers Abrams: one of the top three smartest people he knows, a personal friends, and the presumptive favorite to win. He will probably be pouring a lot of money into here through his FairVote group because of both the recent controversy over the voting process, and the fact that the republican nominee is Kemp.

First: Jason's org is LAV, not FairVote.

Second, we've already been strongly supporting Abrams and will continue to do so.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #2617 on: August 17, 2018, 10:25:45 am »

A side comment, but I went to listen to a Jason kander live interview in SF yesterday, and he considers Abrams: one of the top three smartest people he knows, a personal friends, and the presumptive favorite to win. He will probably be pouring a lot of money into here through his FairVote group because of both the recent controversy over the voting process, and the fact that the republican nominee is Kemp.

First: Jason's org is LAV, not FairVote.

Second, we've already been strongly supporting Abrams and will continue to do so.

My mistake then.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #2618 on: August 17, 2018, 10:40:33 am »

Forgive my ignorance; but is Abrams virtually dead on arrival if it’s a run off? I can see a very cruel scenario where she’d beat Kemp but not reach 50%.
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Silurian
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« Reply #2619 on: August 17, 2018, 10:44:46 am »

Forgive my ignorance; but is Abrams virtually dead on arrival if it’s a run off? I can see a very cruel scenario where she’d beat Kemp but not reach 50%.

I think that is the general assumption, but given how insanely enthusiastic the left is and how much they have been over-performing in special elections, I'm not convinced a runoff would doom her.
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« Reply #2620 on: August 17, 2018, 03:40:28 pm »

Forgive my ignorance; but is Abrams virtually dead on arrival if it’s a run off? I can see a very cruel scenario where she’d beat Kemp but not reach 50%.

I think that is the general assumption, but given how insanely enthusiastic the left is and how much they have been over-performing in special elections, I'm not convinced a runoff would doom her.
I think the same thing. It could either be a blowout for the R, or Abrams can win modestly. We dont really have any info on which could occur.
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RFKFan68
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« Reply #2621 on: August 17, 2018, 03:46:25 pm »

Forgive my ignorance; but is Abrams virtually dead on arrival if it’s a run off? I can see a very cruel scenario where she’d beat Kemp but not reach 50%.

I think that is the general assumption, but given how insanely enthusiastic the left is and how much they have been over-performing in special elections, I'm not convinced a runoff would doom her.
I think the same thing. It could either be a blowout for the R, or Abrams can win modestly. We dont really have any info on which could occur.
It will still be a Toss Up. And no I don’t care what happened in the 2008 Senate run off. There are so many factors that make what could happen this year different from then.
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Silurian
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« Reply #2622 on: August 17, 2018, 04:37:30 pm »

It will still be a Toss Up. And no I don’t care what happened in the 2008 Senate run off. There are so many factors that make what could happen this year different from then.

FWIW, a runoff after 2008's general is different than a runoff after a midterm election, because there is no change in the presidency. It almost seems like Obama started dragging on the Democratic Party literally as soon as he was declared the winner. It might be that the "White House curse" begins sooner than you'd think.

Meanwhile, for this cycle, the left is going to be just as fired up on the runoff election date as it was during the first election. That's my hot take, anyhow.
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1J
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« Reply #2623 on: August 17, 2018, 07:00:11 pm »

When will the likely potential runoff be held?
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« Reply #2624 on: August 17, 2018, 07:03:05 pm »

When will the likely potential runoff be held?

Four weeks after the general--putting it after Thanksgiving
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