Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Bacon King]

SENATE CANDIDATE-WATCH
featuring bonus examples of crazy statements!

Paul Broun has already officially declared. He has said before:

"I was the first Member of Congress to call him a socialist who embraces Marxist-Leninist policies like government control of health care and redistribution of wealth."

"All that stuff I was taught about evolution and embryology and the big bang theory, all that is lies straight from the pit of Hell ... You see, there are a lot of scientific data that I've found out as a scientist that actually show that this is really a young Earth. I don't believe that the earth's but about 9,000 years old. I believe it was created in six days as we know them. That's what the Bible says."

Phil Gingrey is also set to enter the race, though he hasn't made an official declaration yet. Quotes:

"[Todd Akin] went on and said that in a situation of rape, of a legitimate rape, a woman's body has a way of shutting down so the pregnancy would not occur. He's partly right on that. I've delivered lots of babies, and I know about these things. It is true."

"Americans are watching as from Iran to North Korea, the forces of darkness are attempting to silence the forces of democracy and freedom. The irony is on this day, the Democratic process and the nation’s economic freedom are under threat not by some rogue state, but in this very chamber in which we stand." (spoken on the floor of the U.S. House in 2009, while debating the proposed rules for debate on a clean energy bill.)

Jack Kingston has confirmed that he will run for Senate.

"I believe I came from God, not from a monkey so the answer is no. ... I don't believe that a creature crawled out of the sea and became a human being one day."

"It is always open season on Christian and on white folks because they are the group you can kick and you can get away with it. It is politically correct."

Tom Price has said he'll make a decision in May, but he's ramping up fundraising and showing plenty of signs he's in the race.

"I’m a big Taylor Swift fan, don't tell anybody. ... I prayed when she started dating a Kennedy that that would end."

(okay, Price is actually pretty good about keeping his quotes within the realm of sanity)

[nolesfan2011]

Sanford Bishop gets crossover appeal for the same reason that he gets a pass on his corruption problems- he keeps a low profile and stays out of the limelight. That's why he won't run for the Senate and also why he'd lose if he did.

Also, as for Thurbert Baker, I'll let the 2006 map speak for itself

good points

[Adam Griffin]

I made this the other week. Not a swing map, but rather, a "half-swing" map for the 2010 Gubernatorial race. I'm guessing the huge swings in the urban counties were due to a complete collapse of the party / lower-than-usual midterm turnout in 2006; it'd be fantastic (and probably impossible) if those swings could occur again in 2014.

[Adam Griffin]

Some more food for thought:



I should have clarified better in that descriptor; the 'Other' line is labeled as such because Georgia considered you an 'other' if you were not white or black before 2004. I added the totals of each race group post-2002 together and continued the line graph as-is so as to keep consistency.

• When we compare the four instances above of presidential turnout change over a four-year period, the average is a 1-point decrease per year in white share of electorate, a 0.5-point increase per year in the black share of the electorate and a 0.5-point increase per year in the other share of the electorate.
• When we compare the four instances above of presidential turnout change versus the following mid-term turnout, the average is a 0.7-point increase in white share of the electorate, a 0.4-point decrease in black share of the electorate and a 0.3-point decrease in the other share of the electorate.
• When we compare the three instances above of midterm turnout change over a four-year period, the average is a 3.3-point decrease in white share of the electorate, a 1.8-point increase in black share of the electorate and a 1.5-point increase in the other share of the electorate.

Basically, from that, I'd be willing to bet a 2014 electorate looks as such ("my numbers"):

White - 62.1-63.0%
Black - 29.5-30.1%
Other - 7.4-8.0%

If each demographic votes based on how it appears to have voted in 2012, you can project the following onto a statewide race:

(R) = 52.8%
(D) = 45.2%
(L) = 2.0%



If whites return to giving a statewide Democratic candidate 25% of their votes (which is quite possible), then it looks better:

(R) = 50.2%
(D) = 47.8%
(L) = 2.0%



One exciting prospect is the thought of even more Republicans voting for a Libertarian candidate for Governor in 2014. Those Libertarian estimates are low; in the past two Governors' races, Hayes and Monds both got around 4% of the vote.

[old timey villain]

I don't see a scenario in which Deal loses in 2014. He hasn't really done anything to piss off the GOP base or mobilize Democrats. It might be close but he pulls it out fairly easily. 2018 will be interesting though.

[Bacon King]

Wow, the 2010-2012 change is pretty insane.

[Adam Griffin]

More fun! "Half-swings" for Gov (already did earlier) and Lt Gov, 2006-2010:



You can really see the influence of Dubose's media machine in Central Georgia in the Lt Gov race. Look at Laurens and Johnson counties!

[Bacon King]

Laurens/Johnson was DuBose's House district, y'know

[Adam Griffin]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/feb/26/new-poll-puts-casey-cagle-top-gop-potentials-senat/#

[MaxQue]

Doesn't Rosetta Stone were an horrible pollster, last year?
(It's also a former poster and foreign languages methods, but it's irrelevent, even if that name is making more sense for a language thing than a pollster.)

[Bacon King]

Hahaha, the crosstabs of that poll are pretty ridiculous. 53% of the state lives in the Atlanta metro, including the counties with the most Republican votes in the state. There's no way that 70% of the GOP primary electorate lives outside the metro.

[JRP1994]

My guess is that the GOP will hold on to the Senate seat in Georgia (though it might be very narrow). 2016 becomes more interesting, but I don't see any Democratic candidate (aside from Hillary) flipping it.

Consider this: Romney got 53% of the vote in Georgia, compared to 47% nationally. Georgia's PVI in 2012 was R+6. It would probably take a Democratic landslide to flip Georgia into the Democratic column.

Georgia will become more competitive, though. Around 2020ish, I'd expect it to be around where North Carolina is now.

[tmthforu94]

I don't see any way Cagle runs - he's stuck.

[old timey villain]

My guess is that the GOP will hold on to the Senate seat in Georgia (though it might be very narrow). 2016 becomes more interesting, but I don't see any Democratic candidate (aside from Hillary) flipping it.

Consider this: Romney got 53% of the vote in Georgia, compared to 47% nationally. Georgia's PVI in 2012 was R+6. It would probably take a Democratic landslide to flip Georgia into the Democratic column.

Georgia will become more competitive, though. Around 2020ish, I'd expect it to be around where North Carolina is now.

This assumes that things stay the same and nothing changes. Lets say in 2016 Hillary runs and picks up 30% of the white vote in Georgia, then the state most certainly flip to the Dems. Or what if minority turnout drops considerably in GA in 2016? Then we will probably see GA swing and trend strongly Republican.

You also need to look at Georgia's future growth. If the sunbelt doesn't bounce back then Georgia's growth slows considerably and the politics don't change. Or perhaps Georgia reinvents itself and attracts a ton of high skilled tech and research jobs, which is what is beginning to happen lately. Then the blue trend accelerates here even faster. And none of this takes into account both parties changing. I've finally realized that trying to pinpoint the exact year a state flips is pretty fruitless. You just have to sit back and enjoy the ride.

[windjammer]

Is Jason Carter interested for this seat? He's young, he could wait!

[All Along The Watchtower]

My guess is that the GOP will hold on to the Senate seat in Georgia (though it might be very narrow). 2016 becomes more interesting, but I don't see any Democratic candidate (aside from Hillary) flipping it.

Consider this: Romney got 53% of the vote in Georgia, compared to 47% nationally. Georgia's PVI in 2012 was R+6. It would probably take a Democratic landslide to flip Georgia into the Democratic column.

Georgia will become more competitive, though. Around 2020ish, I'd expect it to be around where North Carolina is now.

This assumes that things stay the same and nothing changes. Lets say in 2016 Hillary runs and picks up 30% of the white vote in Georgia, then the state most certainly flip to the Dems. Or what if minority turnout drops considerably in GA in 2016? Then we will probably see GA swing and trend strongly Republican.

You also need to look at Georgia's future growth. If the sunbelt doesn't bounce back then Georgia's growth slows considerably and the politics don't change. Or perhaps Georgia reinvents itself and attracts a ton of high skilled tech and research jobs, which is what is beginning to happen lately. Then the blue trend accelerates here even faster. And none of this takes into account both parties changing. I've finally realized that trying to pinpoint the exact year a state flips is pretty fruitless. You just have to sit back and enjoy the ride.

I didn't realize high tech and research=Democratic.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Is Jason Carter interested for this seat? He's young, he could wait!

He should be, the next one isnt open til 2018 and Deal looks competitive for re-election sadly. And unless Broun wins, Carter would have a better chance at winning the Governor's mansion. He down 46/38 with 16 undecided. He's also only at 65% among blacks w/ 20 neutral. If they come home the race would be 40-46. Currently, Deal is getting 14% of the black vote. He'll probably get about 10 percent on Election Day, at most. I believe the Governor's mansion is still an option.

[old timey villain]

My guess is that the GOP will hold on to the Senate seat in Georgia (though it might be very narrow). 2016 becomes more interesting, but I don't see any Democratic candidate (aside from Hillary) flipping it.

Consider this: Romney got 53% of the vote in Georgia, compared to 47% nationally. Georgia's PVI in 2012 was R+6. It would probably take a Democratic landslide to flip Georgia into the Democratic column.

Georgia will become more competitive, though. Around 2020ish, I'd expect it to be around where North Carolina is now.

This assumes that things stay the same and nothing changes. Lets say in 2016 Hillary runs and picks up 30% of the white vote in Georgia, then the state most certainly flip to the Dems. Or what if minority turnout drops considerably in GA in 2016? Then we will probably see GA swing and trend strongly Republican.

You also need to look at Georgia's future growth. If the sunbelt doesn't bounce back then Georgia's growth slows considerably and the politics don't change. Or perhaps Georgia reinvents itself and attracts a ton of high skilled tech and research jobs, which is what is beginning to happen lately. Then the blue trend accelerates here even faster. And none of this takes into account both parties changing. I've finally realized that trying to pinpoint the exact year a state flips is pretty fruitless. You just have to sit back and enjoy the ride.

I didn't realize high tech and research=Democratic.

Hmm really? It seems like most of the areas that have seen big growth in tech and research jobs have trended Dem, like Silicon Valley and the research triangle.

[old timey villain]

Is Jason Carter interested for this seat? He's young, he could wait!

He should be, the next one isnt open til 2018 and Deal looks competitive for re-election sadly. And unless Broun wins, Carter would have a better chance at winning the Governor's mansion. He down 46/38 with 16 undecided. He's also only at 65% among blacks w/ 20 neutral. If they come home the race would be 40-46. Currently, Deal is getting 14% of the black vote. He'll probably get about 10 percent on Election Day, at most. I believe the Governor's mansion is still an option.

Deal will definitely not get 10% of the black vote. He'll be lucky to get 5%

[windjammer]

Is Jason Carter interested for this seat? He's young, he could wait!

He should be, the next one isnt open til 2018 and Deal looks competitive for re-election sadly. And unless Broun wins, Carter would have a better chance at winning the Governor's mansion. He down 46/38 with 16 undecided. He's also only at 65% among blacks w/ 20 neutral. If they come home the race would be 40-46. Currently, Deal is getting 14% of the black vote. He'll probably get about 10 percent on Election Day, at most. I believe the Governor's mansion is still an option.

And the United States Senate elections in 2016? Johnny Isakson will be 71 years old and he could retire. What's more, Non-Hispanic White should represent 58% of the eligible voters in 2016 (62% in 2012). That's why I think Jason Carter should wait 2016, John Barrow is the best candidate we could have if we want to pick up Georgia senate seat in 2014, because he's a conservative democrats and abstentionis higher during a Midterm election for black people.

(I apologize for my spelling mistakes).

[Adam Griffin]

Is Jason Carter interested for this seat? He's young, he could wait!

He should be, the next one isnt open til 2018 and Deal looks competitive for re-election sadly. And unless Broun wins, Carter would have a better chance at winning the Governor's mansion. He down 46/38 with 16 undecided. He's also only at 65% among blacks w/ 20 neutral. If they come home the race would be 40-46. Currently, Deal is getting 14% of the black vote. He'll probably get about 10 percent on Election Day, at most. I believe the Governor's mansion is still an option.

And the United States Senate elections in 2016? Johnny Isakson will be 71 years old and he could retire. What's more, Non-Hispanic White should represent 58% of the eligible voters in 2016 (62% in 2012). That's why I think Jason Carter should wait 2016, John Barrow is the best candidate we could have if we want to pick up Georgia senate seat in 2014, because he's a conservative democrats and abstentionis higher during a Midterm election for black people.

(I apologize for my spelling mistakes).

IIRC, I read somewhere (maybe even in this thread earlier) that Isakson announced that he will not be retiring in 2016.

[publicunofficial]

Graves is officially out of the Senate race.

http://atr.rollcall.com/georgia-tom-graves-not-running-for-senate/

[Adam Griffin]

Graves is officially out of the Senate race.

http://atr.rollcall.com/georgia-tom-graves-not-running-for-senate/

Well, there goes my district's chance of getting rid of crazy.

[Adam Griffin]

Barrow for Senate? He may actually be considering it.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/mar/06/your-daily-jolt-evidence-john-barrow-may-be-intere/

[old timey villain]

http://www.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional/is-gov-deal-vulnerable-in-2014-election-hunt/nWjx4/

Is Nathan Deal vulnerable? Never say never, but probably not.