Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

Looks like Georgia Democrats may pick up three seats in the General Assembly tonight.

In Senate District 6 - which was a nailbiter in 2016 (52-48 in favor of GOP), it looks like there might be a Dem-versus-Dem runoff. As of now, Democrats have around 63% of the vote across 3 candidates (!!!). Assuming this holds, this will eliminate the GOP supermajority in the Senate (their House supermajority fell a couple of years ago).



House Democrats appear to also be in range of picking up the two auxiliary Athens districts (117 & 119). Trump only managed to win one of these districts (forget which) by like 3 points; not sure about the other one.



I'm not sure how much outstanding vote remains: I just got home and it's unclear from returns on SoS whether these are nearly complete results or not. State has already declared victory in two of these races (I believe the 2 House districts) but I'm still getting the lay of the land here.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Go Jen Jordan! I look forward to seeing her take the seat in the District 6 run off (hopefully!)

I really hope #TheResistance remains strong into 2018. The elections across the country got me just a little bit more optimistic about Stacey Evans (not Abrams, sorry) being able to be competitive. I just don't know what kind of GOPer we are going to get and how they'll use cultural issues to trick her into saying something that a.) pisses off triggered white snowflakes or b.) is problematic to black and brown voters. We just need to go after the Democratic base relentlessly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

After the SD-6 result putting two Democrats in the runoff, Republicans want to do away with the jungle primary in special elections: http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/11/10/republican-loss-of-senate-seat-sparks-proposal-to-change-voting-process/

[Virginiá]

After the SD-6 result putting two Democrats in the runoff, Republicans want to do away with the jungle primary in special elections: http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/11/10/republican-loss-of-senate-seat-sparks-proposal-to-change-voting-process/

Oh, there it is. Typical "we lost one election that barely even matters in the first place, quick, let's change the way we conduct elections to help us win next time!" response.

Although I must say, in this case I definitely do support such a change. Jungle primaries suck.

[QAnonKelly]

After Tuesday Night's successes (esp in Virginia), I have a lot of hope for Evans's prospects. I just don't see Abrams being able to do well in a GE. Especially with her botching of the Netroots fiasco (the attack ads write themselves).

[Rookie Yinzer]

After Tuesday Night's successes (esp in Virginia), I have a lot of hope for Evans's prospects. I just don't see Abrams being able to do well in a GE. Especially with her botching of the Netroots fiasco (the attack ads write themselves).

She has way too many things that can be used against her. She is radioactive. She has still yet to receive a single endorsement from an elected official in the state and the primary is a short 6 months away.

I won't make a case for Evans in the white rural parts of the state but I do know that she can keep Cobb County blue as she has served Smyrna in the State House. Gwinnett County is already trending blue as Hillary got majority of the vote here, which I didn't realize and white people are less than 40 percent of the population here. She needs a massive Northam-style GOTV effort in those counties plus Fulton, Henry, Rockdale, Newton, DeKalb, Clayton, and Fayette.

ETA: What do people think about Ossoff for Lieutenant Governor? I noticed that NO ONE has filed for it yet. That could be beneficial with his high name recognition from the GA-06 special election.

[libertpaulian]

Ossoff comes off as kinda Rubio-ish.

Also, is Jason Carter going to run for anything?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is there a website or PDF that has results in the 2016 presidential race by State Senate and State House Districts? I believe I may have saw one earlier in the year but can't find it. Hoping one of you all may have seen the same thing and have the link saved.

[Virginiá]

Is there a website or PDF that has results in the 2016 presidential race by State Senate and State House Districts? I believe I may have saw one earlier in the year but can't find it. Hoping one of you all may have seen the same thing and have the link saved.

This has 2012 and 2016 results for every state's legislative districts:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/7/9/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts

DKE also summarizes the results for various state legislative districts in short pieces, but it's harder to find those and I don't have any links handy.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is there a website or PDF that has results in the 2016 presidential race by State Senate and State House Districts? I believe I may have saw one earlier in the year but can't find it. Hoping one of you all may have seen the same thing and have the link saved.

This has 2012 and 2016 results for every state's legislative districts:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/7/9/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts

DKE also summarizes the results for various state legislative districts in short pieces, but it's harder to find those and I don't have any links handy.

Thanks so much! This is exactly what I viewed before.

[BuckeyeNut]

Ossoff comes off as kinda Rubio-ish.

Also, is Jason Carter going to run for anything?

Not until 2022.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Not a state election, but interesting: the race for a City Council seat in Cumming originally appeared to have a margin of 3 votes, but after a recount it was an exact tie, 441-441.  A runoff is scheduled for Dec. 5.

http://www.ajc.com/news/local/cumming-council-runoff-election-set/sX0HXPOxN6OJLL2ndby1KN/

[GeorgiaModerate]

Atlanta mayoral candidate Mary Norwood accuses current Mayor Kasim Reed of voter fraud in her 2009 loss to him:

http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-exclusive-norwood-accuses-reed-widespread-voter-fraud-2009-contest/ni18X40T8cT6XSEI0KUQGO/

[QAnonKelly]

Since Evans has endorsed Bottoms and Greg Bluestein said Bottoms will officially endorse Evans later (presumably after the election) , there's another black local politician that picked her over Abrams. Kasim Reed has also implied he's supporting Evans. Not looking too good for Abrams.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Atlanta mayoral candidate Mary Norwood accuses current Mayor Kasim Reed of voter fraud in her 2009 loss to him:

http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-exclusive-norwood-accuses-reed-widespread-voter-fraud-2009-contest/ni18X40T8cT6XSEI0KUQGO/

She should have spoke up then. She is trying to cause dissent because she knows Bottoms is so closely linked to Reed. Any ATLiens in here? How are you feeling about the mayoral race?

Since Evans has endorsed Bottoms and Greg Bluestein said Bottoms will officially endorse Evans later (presumably after the election) , there's another black local politician that picked her over Abrams. Kasim Reed has also implied he's supporting Evans. Not looking too good for Abrams.

At this point, I am convinced she will not receive an endorsement from any local black official. Anyone that does not endorse Evans, will simply remain neutral. The GOP is locked, stocked, and ready to go with attacking Abrams full-stop. The Democrats know she is the more vulnerable of the two.

[libertpaulian]

Atlanta mayoral candidate Mary Norwood accuses current Mayor Kasim Reed of voter fraud in her 2009 loss to him:

http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-exclusive-norwood-accuses-reed-widespread-voter-fraud-2009-contest/ni18X40T8cT6XSEI0KUQGO/

She should have spoke up then. She is trying to cause dissent because she knows Bottoms is so closely linked to Reed. Any ATLiens in here? How are you feeling about the mayoral race?

Since Evans has endorsed Bottoms and Greg Bluestein said Bottoms will officially endorse Evans later (presumably after the election) , there's another black local politician that picked her over Abrams. Kasim Reed has also implied he's supporting Evans. Not looking too good for Abrams.

At this point, I am convinced she will not receive an endorsement from any local black official. Anyone that does not endorse Evans, will simply remain neutral. The GOP is locked, stocked, and ready to go with attacking Abrams full-stop. The Democrats know she is the more vulnerable of the two.

Can Evans inspire the kind of AA, Latino, and Asian turnout necessary to flip the state or at least keep it at a loss of less than 5%?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Can Evans inspire the kind of AA, Latino, and Asian turnout necessary to flip the state or at least keep it at a loss of less than 5%?

I don't think she will inspire Obama level turnout among minorities. I do think she will keep it close. Carter lost by 8 points in an Obama lame-duck midterm, so I definitely believe Evans can be competitive with an unpopular Republican in DC. She may be like Northam in that she is simply viewed as anti-Trump proxy and people will go vote for her for that. I think what she really needs is loads of competitive downballot races. Starting with some strong Democrat challenges in GA-06 and GA-07. There are a few State Senate and House seats that have Republican incumbents where Hillary Clinton won that could increase Democrat turnout in these areas.

Vote rich Gwinnett County is trending Democrat. Hillary broke 50 percent here. Evans can also be competitive in Cobb County, she represented Smyrna which is located here so she could reduce margins in this county. She's really going to need to appeal to suburban white women while simultaneously making sure black and Latino turnout is at least a tad better than 2014. Trump in the White House makes this easier.

One of the cornerstones of her campaign is to bring back the HOPE Scholarship. She needs to cascade across the state to every public university to make this case. From Savannah to Augusta to Carrollton to Albany to Macon and everywhere in between. These young voters will turn out for someone promising to make their full tuition free again.

[libertpaulian]

Can Evans inspire the kind of AA, Latino, and Asian turnout necessary to flip the state or at least keep it at a loss of less than 5%?

I don't think she will inspire Obama level turnout among minorities. I do think she will keep it close. Carter lost by 8 points in an Obama lame-duck midterm, so I definitely believe Evans can be competitive with an unpopular Republican in DC. She may be like Northam in that she is simply viewed as anti-Trump proxy and people will go vote for her for that. I think what she really needs is loads of competitive downballot races. Starting with some strong Democrat challenges in GA-06 and GA-07. There are a few State Senate and House seats that have Republican incumbents where Hillary Clinton won that could increase Democrat turnout in these areas.

Vote rich Gwinnett County is trending Democrat. Hillary broke 50 percent here. Evans can also be competitive in Cobb County, she represented Smyrna which is located here so she could reduce margins in this county. She's really going to need to appeal to suburban white women while simultaneously making sure black and Latino turnout is at least a tad better than 2014. Trump in the White House makes this easier.

One of the cornerstones of her campaign is to bring back the HOPE Scholarship. She needs to cascade across the state to every public university to make this case. From Savannah to Augusta to Carrollton to Albany to Macon and everywhere in between. These young voters will turn out for someone promising to make their full tuition free again.

I honestly thought Carter did quite okay for being in a Southern state in an Obama six-year itch, but he could have done slightly better. 

What makes Evans superior to Abrams, in your view?

[QAnonKelly]

Can Evans inspire the kind of AA, Latino, and Asian turnout necessary to flip the state or at least keep it at a loss of less than 5%?

I don't think she will inspire Obama level turnout among minorities. I do think she will keep it close. Carter lost by 8 points in an Obama lame-duck midterm, so I definitely believe Evans can be competitive with an unpopular Republican in DC. She may be like Northam in that she is simply viewed as anti-Trump proxy and people will go vote for her for that. I think what she really needs is loads of competitive downballot races. Starting with some strong Democrat challenges in GA-06 and GA-07. There are a few State Senate and House seats that have Republican incumbents where Hillary Clinton won that could increase Democrat turnout in these areas.

Vote rich Gwinnett County is trending Democrat. Hillary broke 50 percent here. Evans can also be competitive in Cobb County, she represented Smyrna which is located here so she could reduce margins in this county. She's really going to need to appeal to suburban white women while simultaneously making sure black and Latino turnout is at least a tad better than 2014. Trump in the White House makes this easier.

One of the cornerstones of her campaign is to bring back the HOPE Scholarship. She needs to cascade across the state to every public university to make this case. From Savannah to Augusta to Carrollton to Albany to Macon and everywhere in between. These young voters will turn out for someone promising to make their full tuition free again.

Hopefully Cobb and Gwinnett voting Dem wasn’t just a fluke last year. Gwinnett is at the demographic sweet spot now that it should be out of reach for Reps but I’m not so sure about Cobb. Even without Cobb 3/4 of the biggest counties should vote Dem now which is a good sign but 4/4 would be preferred.

And to answer about what Abrams weak is that she’s made a couple of absolutely moronic unforced errors in a campaign that’s pretty much in its infancy. Her supporters heckled Evans off the stage this summer without even giving her a chance to speak and she didn’t apologize and has doubled down on not apologizing. They were comparing Evans to Betsy DeVos (for a vote supposedly in favor of charter schools  that’s been taken out of context by Abrams) and yelling “ Support Black women” but couldn’t actually say why they liked Abrams more.

[Rookie Yinzer]

What makes Evans superior to Abrams, in your view?

Abrams is going to run a campaign focused on her demographics and any attempt to criticize her or her policies will be used as an attempt to label her opponent racist/sexist/misogynist and insert any other -ism here. Her and her supporters are already going there with Evans after her Netroots Speech was interrupted with chants of "Support Black Women" and Abrams did nothing to disavow it.

I also believe she will be hurt by the fact that she does not have a husband and children. I personally don't care, but you can bet suburban white women in Cobb and Gwinnett Counties do, as will conservative black voters in Muscogee, Bibb, Richmond, and Chatham. She is also carrying a lot of political baggage from both the left and the right for deals she made in the House as Minority Leader. Evans is just a far more palatable candidate and will not carry the battle scars Abrams will nor do I suspect she will use the historic nature of her candidacy to silence criticism and dissent.

[BundouYMB]

Most of the nonsense spouted in this thread is completely false. For example, Abrams has the endorsement of several state representatives (Pam Dickerson and Sam Park just off the top of my head.)

Far more importantly, however, Abrams also has the endorsement of the state AFL-CIO, numerous other unions, Emily's List, and NARAL. Those are the kind of endorsements that actually move a substantial number of voters because they have either ground activists (unions) or money (Emily's List and NARAL) to back them up.

Also saying Abrams is "running on her demographics" is utterly ludicrous, because she has far more detailed and serious policy proposals than Evans.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Most of the nonsense spouted in this thread is completely false. For example, Abrams has the endorsement of several state representatives (Pam Dickerson and Sam Park just off the top of my head.)

Far more importantly, however, Abrams also has the endorsement of the state AFL-CIO, numerous other unions, Emily's List, and NARAL. Those are the kind of endorsements that actually move a substantial number of voters because they have either ground activists (unions) or money (Emily's List and NARAL) to back them up.

Also saying Abrams is "running on her demographics" is utterly ludicrous, because she has far more detailed and serious policy proposals than Evans.

The Dickerson endorsement must be fairly recent? I haven’t really looked at who has endorsed Abrams in recent weeks. Even so, that’s 2 endorsements from locally elected officials compared to dozens that Evans has racked up.

Abrams certainly has thoughtful and detailed policy plans, but most of what I seen is vote for her because she’d be the first black woman governor and if you don’t it is because you don’t support black women and you’d rather lose with a white woman than win with a black woman. She has been putting this message out there indirectly and I’ve already seen national pundits begin laying the groundwork for this narrative if she ultimately loses the primary. And I think refusing to disavow people who rudely protested an opponents speech by accusing her of being racist and being likened to Betsy DeVos is pretty damn disgusting. Abrams is a master at throwing rocks and hiding her hands.

All of those out of state endorsements mean nothing in my opinion. We will see once the primary really gets going after the new year, but Evans is laying the groundwork to play offense in Abrams-friendly areas.

[QAnonKelly]

Politics is all about perception. The whole Netroots fiasco could very easily be made out to be about the perception that she’s running on demographics alone. The attack ads write themselves.  Also Abrams being endorsed by more national figures/ organizations while Evans is being endorsed by more local people could also feed into this narrative. Abrams’s botching of Netroots was her signing her own death certificate. She could very well get out of the primary but she’s toast in a GE because of it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Looking through her social media Dickerson and Park are the only local endorsements. The AFL-CIO is a cool endorsement as that is a heavily white male organization but I don’t see how Union endorsements carry much weight south of the Mason-Dixon. Then I see endorsements from far left “liberal elite” organizations that talk about her being a black woman as if that’s the sole reason she should have support. It’s funny how they try to paint Evans as a blue dog. LOL. This will be an exciting race for sure. Interested in seeing it unfold once the mayoral race is out of the way and attention is squarely focused on 2018.

[OneJ]

What makes Evans superior to Abrams, in your view?

Abrams is going to run a campaign focused on her demographics and any attempt to criticize her or her policies will be used as an attempt to label her opponent racist/sexist/misogynist and insert any other -ism here. Her and her supporters are already going there with Evans after her Netroots Speech was interrupted with chants of "Support Black Women" and Abrams did nothing to disavow it.

I also believe she will be hurt by the fact that she does not have a husband and children. I personally don't care, but you can bet suburban white women in Cobb and Gwinnett Counties do, as will conservative black voters in Muscogee, Bibb, Richmond, and Chatham. She is also carrying a lot of political baggage from both the left and the right for deals she made in the House as Minority Leader. Evans is just a far more palatable candidate and will not carry the battle scars Abrams will nor do I suspect she will use the historic nature of her candidacy to silence criticism and dissent.

But Black voters aren't looking for a candidate with a family. I have a hard time seeing Abrams get hurt with something like that. Plus, Black voters (particularly in states like Georgia) are really only conservative on a few issues like abortion and same-sex marriage. On other issues they typically lean to the left.