Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Bacon King]

instead of comparing the relative turnout between the parties wouldn't it make more sense to show raw change in vote totals per party? I'm not asking you to do so Adam, of course, but it's a map I might make if I can't sleep tonight, especially if I can ever get basic math functions working on my sh**tty freeware spreadsheet program lol

[ON Progressive]

What on earth is with Quitman County's massive swing? Not too worrying since it's not a large amount of votes at all, but it sticks out like a sore thumb.

[Adam Griffin]

What on earth is with Quitman County's massive swing? Not too worrying since it's not a large amount of votes at all, but it sticks out like a sore thumb.

A lot of counties in SW Georgia are losing population rapidly, and losing black population to urban areas more so. Quitman's been teetering for awhile now:

2008: 53.5 D
2010: 55.8 D
2012: 54.3 D
2014: 52.1 D
2016: 55.1 R


In other sad news, the last great local Democratic bastion of rural North Georgia has truly, finally fallen :

Chattooga 2014: 50.0 D, 46.1 R
Chattooga 2018: 62.8 R, 36.0 D

I'm betting most if not all of the local elected Democrats (which comprise a majority of the elected officials) get wiped out this year.

[GlobeSoc]

Based on that 40 county map I'm guessing that, in the blank counties, dems are marginally improving in the white southeast, losing in the black belt, gaining in the northwest, and losing in the northeast

I wonder why dems are underperforming 2014 in Richmond county. I understand the rural black counties as many black people have been moving out of them to a city / suburb, but why Richmond?

Also, what would happen to Georgia's politics if Amazon put a headquarters in Atlanta?

Atlanta-area whites would shift left faster than you can say "techie liberals"

[Adam Griffin]

Went ahead and filled 5 more counties in my corner of the state in (NW Georgia) on the previous page; definitely a mixed bag. The old Democratic bastions (at least at the local level) have finally went kaput, and you can see that in the primary results (Chattooga and Murray) in particular. NW Georgia was an area that swung to Carter in 2014 by more than any other white rural area in the state, so I figured it'd be interesting to see what is happening here.

[_]

Ok I'm just looking at the swing in Gwinnett, Henry, Cobb, wow the Metro looks like it's surging Dem. 

Chatham county looks interesting too, I assume due to Black turnout in Savannah?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hillary Clinton endorses Stacey Abrams!

The former Secretary of State recorded a robo call for Leader Abrams going out today.

https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/georgia-2018-hillary-clinton-endorses-abrams-gov-race/ajWFeJd9MkA8e6aDNyFMSN/

Now I got into it with an Evans supporter who said Bernie’s endorsement was worthless because he got hammered in Georgia and now look

Come on President Obama!

[Adam Griffin]

Ok I'm just looking at the swing in Gwinnett, Henry, Cobb, wow the Metro looks like it's surging Dem.  

Chatham county looks interesting too, I assume due to Black turnout in Savannah?

There of course can be a litany of different things going on in different counties (some counties naturally have larger early vote totals, while others don't; some shift from cycle to cycle in one direction or another depending on early vote locations; some places are seeing turnout surges while others are seeing defections; etc)...but looking at the raw totals in Chatham, I'd say it's probably white voters pulling DEM ballots after voting GOP in the past. Look at the '14/'18 EV totals, how much the D/R margin has shifted and then compare that to some other metro/urban counties. Turnout is barely up in Chatham compared to most of the other counties with comparable swings.

I've talked about for years how coastal Georgia is arguably the most "moderate" region of the state in terms of ideology; while it tilts GOP usually, you have a much larger share of GOP voters who'd self-identify as moderate and they're largely clustered around Savannah. It wouldn't be surprising at all to see a huge defection from GOP to DEM here if you're seeing it in metro ATL communities as well.

[GlobeSoc]

I'm not going to ask for a map of it but is the story in Quitman repeating in the other Obama-Trump counties, at a glance?

[Del Tachi]

One county that would be interesting to see would be Oconee - White, wealthy county on the outskirts of Metro ATL next door to very-liberal Athens. 

[Adam Griffin]

Here are 50 counties total: since last update, I've added 5 counties in NW Georgia (Chattooga, Dade, Gordon, Murray & Walker), the 4 remaining Obama-Trump counties (Baker, Early, Peach & Twiggs) + Jimmy Carter's home county (Sumter). This comprises around 77% of the state's population, which Clinton won by 5 points.

The remaining 23% of the state as a whole would be more Republican than every other state save for Wyoming, with Trump winning it by 42 points (70-28).

County	'14 EV	'18 EV	'14 D	'14 R	'18 D	'18 R	Swing
Baker	168	145	61.3%	36.9%	61.4%	37.9%	0.9
Baldwin	1522	1557	45.6%	52.4%	54.3%	44.6%	16.5
Bartow	1585	1834	12.4%	86.8%	21.0%	77.6%	17.8
Bibb	5614	5047	68.1%	31.5%	73.2%	25.4%	11.2
Bulloch	1823	2349	33.5%	64.7%	41.5%	57.4%	15.3
Calhoun	95	152	57.9%	42.1%	73.0%	33.6%	23.6
Catoosa	989	1548	11.6%	88.1%	20.6%	76.9%	20.2
Chatham	5955	6526	42.4%	57.1%	66.0%	30.4%	50.3
Chattooga	1073	684	50.0%	46.1%	36.0%	62.8%	30.7
Cherokee	7349	7849	8.1%	91.7%	16.8%	82.7%	17.7
Clarke	3672	6552	61.7%	37.2%	73.6%	22.3%	26.8
Clayton	4570	6778	80.3%	19.3%	84.1%	13.0%	11.1
Cobb	13373	16018	21.7%	77.8%	44.2%	55.1%	45.2
Columbia	2938	6098	13.4%	86.4%	19.6%	78.9%	13.7
Coweta	2203	3552	22.7%	77.0%	30.6%	68.6%	16.3
Dade	602	686	15.9%	84.1%	9.7%	89.9%	12.0
Dekalb	16799	22594	78.1%	20.8%	86.3%	12.8%	16.2
Dougherty	2209	3110	88.2%	11.6%	85.8%	12.6%	3.4
Douglas	3327	3770	34.1%	65.6%	52.2%	47.3%	36.4
Early	310	638	81.3%	18.7%	39.0%	59.9%	83.5
Elbert	623	1241	27.3%	71.3%	24.8%	74.2%	5.4
Fannin	1329	1568	8.1%	91.5%	12.2%	86.5%	9.1
Fayette	-----	5283	20.1%	79.6%	38.4%	61.1%	36.8
Floyd	1793	2762	23.3%	76.4%	27.7%	68.9%	11.9
Forsyth	6813	12182	7.4%	90.2%	18.1%	78.2%	22.7
Fulton	17351	39760	63.0%	33.0%	66.1%	29.4%	6.7
Glynn	3899	3669	17.7%	81.7%	30.7%	68.2%	26.5
Gordon	931	1240	13.4%	86.1%	19.0%	80.9%	10.8
Gwinnett	8019	16538	24.8%	67.7%	56.1%	39.8%	59.2
Hall	-----	4442	10.2%	89.1%	21.3%	77.4%	22.8
Hancock	933	712	96.1%	3.6%	95.8%	3.9%	0.6
Henry	4819	8390	26.1%	73.1%	50.5%	48.8%	48.7
Houston	3843	4347	32.2%	64.9%	41.9%	57.1%	17.5
Laurens	1251	1882	42.2%	57.5%	38.4%	59.8%	6.1
Lowndes	3328	3139	32.7%	67.2%	34.8%	64.6%	4.7
Murray	801	531	27.1%	71.8%	15.1%	84.7%	24.9
Muscogee	9126	8101	62.7%	31.0%	65.8%	31.1%	3.0
Newton	3267	3356	51.7%	47.3%	56.8%	40.9%	11.5
Paulding	3506	5653	13.7%	85.4%	19.1%	79.6%	11.2
Peach	749	984	47.2%	52.3%	59.8%	39.4%	25.6
Quitman	235	192	67.7%	23.8%	52.6%	44.3%	35.6
Rabun	1617	2320	16.0%	83.1%	15.1%	84.8%	2.6
Randolph	362	606	81.5%	18.5%	75.7%	21.3%	8.6
Richmond	7903	7467	71.0%	27.2%	67.0%	30.2%	7.0
Rockdale	3705	5317	51.3%	48.4%	56.6%	41.3%	12.4
Sumter	1963	1423	59.2%	36.5%	62.0%	36.5%	2.8
Tift	1765	1540	16.7%	82.8%	25.5%	74.4%	17.2
Twiggs	651	397	86.6%	13.4%	71.5%	28.5%	30.2
Walker	1341	826	11.2%	88.7%	17.7%	81.5%	13.7
Whitfield	-----	1259	14.9%	83.3%	21.2%	77.1%	12.5

[Adam Griffin]

I'm not going to ask for a map of it but is the story in Quitman repeating in the other Obama-Trump counties, at a glance?

Added above. There are some huge swings among them, but the fact is that primary composition has tended to swing wildly in a lot of South Georgia counties that are ancestrally Democratic. If you go back a page or two and look at the 2010-2014 ballot maps link I posted, there are some counties in 2014 that went from 40% D to 90% D and vice-versa; I'm sure select incumbents on the ballot and a variety of other factors impact that. Nevertheless, there's probably not as much to read into results for counties like these as there are for other counties (the one exception in Obama-Trump counties would be Peach).

[Adam Griffin]

One county that would be interesting to see would be Oconee - White, wealthy county on the outskirts of Metro ATL next door to very-liberal Athens. 

Wish I had thought of it before! It had some pretty big improvement in 2014 if I recall correctly. Anyway, I'm not going to bother adding it to the chart yet (until I do a few more), but:

2014-Oconee (1664 votes): 89.2 R, 10.5 D
2018-Oconee (2872 votes): 72.1 R, 27.4 D
Oconee-Swing: 34.0

[Adam Griffin]

One fun fact I just observed: the 50 counties above have done a mirror flip compared to 2014:

2014 (50 Counties, Two-Way):
Republican EV: 55%
Democratic EV: 45%

2018 (50 Counties, Two-Way):
Democratic EV: 55%
Republican EV: 45%

It's worth noting that this analysis should be considered alongside the fact that GA Democrats had no contested gubernatorial primary in 2014. We would expect some general statewide rebound simply because of a contested top-ticket race in 2018, but the question is: how much of the rebound is attributable to that? Furthermore, how much may be the result of increased ED vote cannibalization by Democrats? I have a hard time believing even both factors combined are responsible for a 20-point shift.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

One fun fact I just observed: the 50 counties above have done a mirror flip compared to 2014:

2014 (50 Counties, Two-Way):
Republican EV: 55%
Democratic EV: 45%

2018 (50 Counties, Two-Way):
Democratic EV: 55%
Republican EV: 45%

It's worth noting that this analysis should be considered alongside the fact that GA Democrats had no contested gubernatorial primary in 2014. We would expect some general statewide rebound simply because of a contested top-ticket race in 2018, but the question is: how much of the rebound is attributable to that? Furthermore, how much may be the result of increased ED vote cannibalization by Democrats? I have a hard time believing even both factors combined are responsible for a 20-point shift.

To be fair, it's not like the Georgia republican governor primary was seriously contested.

[Del Tachi]

One fun fact I just observed: the 50 counties above have done a mirror flip compared to 2014:

2014 (50 Counties, Two-Way):
Republican EV: 55%
Democratic EV: 45%

2018 (50 Counties, Two-Way):
Democratic EV: 55%
Republican EV: 45%

It's worth noting that this analysis should be considered alongside the fact that GA Democrats had no contested gubernatorial primary in 2014. We would expect some general statewide rebound simply because of a contested top-ticket race in 2018, but the question is: how much of the rebound is attributable to that? Furthermore, how much may be the result of increased ED vote cannibalization by Democrats? I have a hard time believing even both factors combined are responsible for a 20-point shift.

To be fair, it's not like the Georgia republican governor primary was seriously contested.

You did have a very competitive U.S. Senate primary on the GOP side in 2014 though

[libertpaulian]

One fun fact I just observed: the 50 counties above have done a mirror flip compared to 2014:

2014 (50 Counties, Two-Way):
Republican EV: 55%
Democratic EV: 45%

2018 (50 Counties, Two-Way):
Democratic EV: 55%
Republican EV: 45%

It's worth noting that this analysis should be considered alongside the fact that GA Democrats had no contested gubernatorial primary in 2014. We would expect some general statewide rebound simply because of a contested top-ticket race in 2018, but the question is: how much of the rebound is attributable to that? Furthermore, how much may be the result of increased ED vote cannibalization by Democrats? I have a hard time believing even both factors combined are responsible for a 20-point shift.

To be fair, it's not like the Georgia republican governor primary was seriously contested.

You did have a very competitive U.S. Senate primary on the GOP side in 2014 though

An 8% margin of victory isn't THAT large considering 2014 was an R wave year.

[Del Tachi]

I'll be the first to post an official prediction

Democratic Primary:
(✓) Stacey Abrams - 56.6%
Stacey Evans - 43.4%

Republican Primary:
Brian Kemp - 36.1% ✓R
Casey Cagle - 35.7% ✓R
Hunter Hill - 11.8%
Clay Tippins - 10.0%
Michael Williams - 5.4%

[henster]

It's interesting in the Clinton robocall she emphasizes 'Abrams with an A' twice, I guess that means the campaign is worried about voters confusing the Stacey's.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

My predictions (I stole Del's formatting)

Democratic Primary:
(✓) Stacey Abrams - 63%
Stacey Evans - 37%

Republican Primary:
Casey Cagle - 45% ✓R
Brian Kemp - 28% ✓R
Hunter Hill - 11%
Clay Tippins - 8%
Michael Williams - 8%

[Hammy]

Do the primaries have the same runoff rules as the GE or are they FPTP?

[Adam Griffin]

Do the primaries have the same runoff rules as the GE or are they FPTP?

Yes; the GOP Governor's race will almost certainly go to a runoff.

[Horus]

Abrams - 65
Evans - 35

[Canis]

Im getting real Va 2006 vibes from this I say abrams has a real chance of beating the gop nominee especially if its not cagle.

[Canis]

Also Abrams has just gotten endorsed by Hillary
https://twitter.com/staceyabrams/status/998668232356704256