Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Bacon King]

Welp, John Barrow did it, THE MADMAN IS BACK!

I think GA SOS will be Tilt D, and Gov depends on the R runoff obviously, but Abrams is clearly running into the GE with momentum on her side, hopefully she recognizes Dems should go after Rural GA as well, otherwise she'll probably just barely lose the GE.

this election result is basically perfect: the GOP has runoffs for Governor, Lieutenant Governor, and Secretary of State. Their candidates will spend the next two months desperately struggling to out-crazy each other. Abrams, Riggs-Amico, and Barrow can campaign across the state without interruption, just being reasonable and responsible candidates, knowing that whatever GOP candidates they eventually face will appear to be literally insane to most voters by the time they finally get to the general election

[Horus]

Next year we will have representative Viola Davis, and possibly representative Sandra Bullock (She is real, a retired Georgia Tech employee.)

Also glad to see that Henson won his primary. His opponent was a homophobic "dancing preacher" who looked nuts.

[Podgy the Bear]

She needs to emulate the Obama strategy of counting on her base to turn out and then focus on those hostile areas.  And with the Republicans in runoff mode for the next month, Abrams needs to do it now.
By cutting those 50-60 point margins in these counties down to 20-30 points, it gives her some chance. 

And it really provides the possibility for the Democrats to pick up those downstream offices.  Amico and Barrow are the best bets here.

I still think it will be very tough for Abrams, but 2018 could be the start of the progressive-moderate coalition that the Democrats need to become competitive in Georgia.  Good to know that Evans backed Abrams immediately--the Democrats must be unified in every way to make it work.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Edit:  I meant places in Northern GA like Whitfield, not just the Black Belt.

She has been there. Repeatedly. She was in Dahlonega and Fannin County speaking about gun control and brought a room full of old white people to their feet. You can't just make up your own facts about her campaign and who she is and isn't reaching out to just because of how you personally perceive the race from the outside.

[DrScholl]

Edit:  I meant places in Northern GA like Whitfield, not just the Black Belt.

She has been there. Repeatedly. She was in Dahlonega and Fannin County speaking about gun control and brought a room full of old white people to their feet. You can't just make up your own facts about her campaign and who she is and isn't reaching out to just because of how you personally perceive the race from the outside.

Some on Atlas will automatically assume that black candidates only campaign in black areas.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Edit:  I meant places in Northern GA like Whitfield, not just the Black Belt.

She has been there. Repeatedly. She was in Dahlonega and Fannin County speaking about gun control and brought a room full of old white people to their feet. You can't just make up your own facts about her campaign and who she is and isn't reaching out to just because of how you personally perceive the race from the outside.

Some on Atlas will automatically assume that black candidates only campaign in black areas.

Right, and I get that the national media has hyped this up as Abrams solely focusing on maximizing black turnout but that is literally not what is going on on the ground. She delivered a speech on labor and worker's rights to a room full of gruff middle aged white men who were cheering her name by the end of the speech. She has been to areas of the state where black folks still better not find themselves out after dark. She is bold and will take her message anywhere. So, yeah I get a little triggered when I see "well she needs to do more to appeal to whites".... she's already doing it as evidenced by that trouncing last night. LOL.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A somewhat interesting local election: there was a referendum in the southeastern part of Forsyth County on whether to incorporate a new city, Sharon Springs, which would have had a population of about 50,000.  The bill allowing for the possible incorporation required at least 57.5% of voters in favor to pass; this was a negotiated compromise between a simple majority (which has been used in past cityhood votes in Georgia) and a 2/3 threshold, which was requested by some state legislators.

The vote was 54% to 46% in favor, so the incorporation failed -- although it would have passed under the standard used for previous similar votes.

Source

[windjammer]

The Georgians, who is the worst between Cagle and Kemp?

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Georgians, who is the worst between Cagle and Kemp?

I think Kemp would be the better choice for Georgia, despite his awful commercials in the primary.  He had a reasonably decent track record as Secretary of State.  Cagle doesn't have a lot to recommend him IMO.

[Adam Griffin]

Fun fact: counties comprising 93% of GA's population swung Democratic in the primary compared to 2014 (measured by my primary swing map here). As relatively bad as some of that blue might look (around one-third of all counties), it's basically a selection of the least-populated areas. While additional measurements will be useful (such as which counties saw raw increase in Dem vote as opposed to a smaller drop-off compared to GOP), it's pretty astonishing.

While we could be wrong about it, Bacon King and I were discussing the southern areas last night (in particular SWGA) and - outside the counties that are obvious anomalies due to local conditions that led to wildly different primary outcomes - how it's definitely possible there'll be no significant majority-black territory left south of the Fall Line in 10 years' time. Mainly, because a huge chunk of young black residents are leaving for more urban areas and older black residents having life expectancy that is basically a decade shorter than white residents is converting majority-black areas into majority-white ones in just a few years. More granular analysis is needed, though. What's obvious, however, is the area as a whole is evaporating population-wise by the day.

Voila (same as my pre-Election Night maps, but complete and with all votes*)



*Dekalb and Mitchell weren't fully reporting when I started making this

[KingSweden]

Fun fact: counties comprising 93% of GA's population swung Democratic in the primary compared to 2014 (measured by my primary swing map here). As relatively bad as some of that blue might look (around one-third of all counties), it's basically a selection of the least-populated areas. While additional measurements will be useful (such as which counties saw raw increase in Dem vote as opposed to a smaller drop-off compared to GOP), it's pretty astonishing.

While we could be wrong about it, Bacon King and I were discussing the southern areas last night (in particular SWGA) and - outside the counties that are obvious anomalies due to local conditions that led to wildly different primary outcomes - how it's definitely possible there'll be no significant majority-black territory left south of the Fall Line in 10 years' time. Mainly, because a huge chunk of young black residents are leaving for more urban areas and older black residents having life expectancy that is basically a decade shorter than white residents is converting majority-black areas into majority-white ones in just a few years. More granular analysis is needed, though. What's obvious, however, is the area as a whole is evaporating population-wise by the day.

Voila (same as my pre-Election Night maps, but complete and with all votes*)



*Dekalb and Mitchell weren't fully reporting when I started making this

That would obviously have substantial VRA implications for Sanford Bishop, I imagine. What does rural Hispanic growth in GA look like?

For GM...

A somewhat interesting local election: there was a referendum in the southeastern part of Forsyth County on whether to incorporate a new city, Sharon Springs, which would have had a population of about 50,000.  The bill allowing for the possible incorporation required at least 57.5% of voters in favor to pass; this was a negotiated compromise between a simple majority (which has been used in past cityhood votes in Georgia) and a 2/3 threshold, which was requested by some state legislators.

The vote was 54% to 46% in favor, so the incorporation failed -- although it would have passed under the standard used for previous similar votes.

Source

What is the complaint/opposition legislators have against the incorporation of Sharon Springs?

[Adam Griffin]

Fun fact: counties comprising 93% of GA's population swung Democratic in the primary compared to 2014 (measured by my primary swing map here). As relatively bad as some of that blue might look (around one-third of all counties), it's basically a selection of the least-populated areas. While additional measurements will be useful (such as which counties saw raw increase in Dem vote as opposed to a smaller drop-off compared to GOP), it's pretty astonishing.

While we could be wrong about it, Bacon King and I were discussing the southern areas last night (in particular SWGA) and - outside the counties that are obvious anomalies due to local conditions that led to wildly different primary outcomes - how it's definitely possible there'll be no significant majority-black territory left south of the Fall Line in 10 years' time. Mainly, because a huge chunk of young black residents are leaving for more urban areas and older black residents having life expectancy that is basically a decade shorter than white residents is converting majority-black areas into majority-white ones in just a few years. More granular analysis is needed, though. What's obvious, however, is the area as a whole is evaporating population-wise by the day.

Voila (same as my pre-Election Night maps, but complete and with all votes*)



*Dekalb and Mitchell weren't fully reporting when I started making this

That would obviously have substantial VRA implications for Sanford Bishop, I imagine. What does rural Hispanic growth in GA look like?

It's a common misconception, but Bishop's district actually isn't a VRA-required district in the here and now: it was designed primarily to be a 49.5% BVAP vote-sink so that the Jim Marshalls of the world couldn't break through and win 2 or more districts in the southern half of the state. Nevertheless, it could definitely impact his future, as if the area is watered down enough for Republicans by 2021 and they still have control, they'll cut it in half and deal with having 2 55% GOP districts in the area or whatever (which'll be far less likely to elect Blue Dogs than they would have been a decade earlier).

[LimoLiberal]

Fun fact: counties comprising 93% of GA's population swung Democratic in the primary compared to 2014 (measured by my primary swing map here). As relatively bad as some of that blue might look (around one-third of all counties), it's basically a selection of the least-populated areas. While additional measurements will be useful (such as which counties saw raw increase in Dem vote as opposed to a smaller drop-off compared to GOP), it's pretty astonishing.

While we could be wrong about it, Bacon King and I were discussing the southern areas last night (in particular SWGA) and - outside the counties that are obvious anomalies due to local conditions that led to wildly different primary outcomes - how it's definitely possible there'll be no significant majority-black territory left south of the Fall Line in 10 years' time. Mainly, because a huge chunk of young black residents are leaving for more urban areas and older black residents having life expectancy that is basically a decade shorter than white residents is converting majority-black areas into majority-white ones in just a few years. More granular analysis is needed, though. What's obvious, however, is the area as a whole is evaporating population-wise by the day.

Voila (same as my pre-Election Night maps, but complete and with all votes*)



*Dekalb and Mitchell weren't fully reporting when I started making this

That would obviously have substantial VRA implications for Sanford Bishop, I imagine. What does rural Hispanic growth in GA look like?

It's a common misconception, but Bishop's district actually isn't a VRA-required district in the here and now: it was designed primarily to be a 49.5% BVAP vote-sink so that the Jim Marshalls of the world couldn't break through and win 2 or more districts in the southern half of the state. Nevertheless, it could definitely impact his future, as if the area is watered down enough for Republicans by 2021 and they still have control, they'll cut it in half and deal with having 2 55% GOP districts in the area or whatever (which'll be far less likely to elect Blue Dogs than they would have been a decade earlier).

Hmmm. That still seems a little dangerous.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Can't believe I thought Evans was going to win Cobb. LMAO.





ETA: For anyone who watches population, when will Gwinnett County become the most populous county in Georgia?

[RINO Tom]

didnt cobb go blue by like 4 votes?

Nah. Cobb had about 250 more GOP votes in the gubernatorial primary, but Democrats won it on every other level

Paging RINO Tom

You’re creepy, bro.  Since I have a healthy relationship, a semblance of a social life and am at least SOMEWHAT normal, I actually don’t care how counties vote in states I have never even visited, LOL.  But please ... I don’t wanna rain on your parade if this is, like, your hobby or what makes you happy or whatever; continue your weird little crusade!

[Adam Griffin]

ETA: For anyone who watches population, when will Gwinnett County become the most populous county in Georgia?

At to the height of the recession, it looked as if Gwinnett could overtake Fulton by 2020. However, since then, the two counties have been maintaining a pretty static difference population-wise (between 120-140k people). Trends can abruptly change but based on recent growth, there is no evidence it'll happen anytime soon. Gwinnett certainly has more physical room for growth, though.

EDIT: by the late 2030s, though, most projections have Gwinnett pulling into the lead.

https://www.ajc.com/news/local/what-georgia-county-will-have-the-most-people-2040-hint-not-fulton/CokXMmMP8nK6Qf7B7MhXpO/

[Cynthia]

Why doesn't Sanford Bishop run for governor? He's black, moderate, has a long political history including winning majority white districts, and represents pretty much a safe D vote dump?

[ON Progressive]

Is there any movement in GA to abolish general election runoffs? I am not a fan of them at all.

[RINO Tom]

didnt cobb go blue by like 4 votes?

Nah. Cobb had about 250 more GOP votes in the gubernatorial primary, but Democrats won it on every other level

Paging RINO Tom

You’re creepy, bro.  Since I have a healthy relationship, a semblance of a social life and am at least SOMEWHAT normal, I actually don’t care how counties vote in states I have never even visited, LOL.  But please ... I don’t wanna rain on your parade if this is, like, your hobby or what makes you happy or whatever; continue your weird little crusade!

Someone on this cesspool of a forum has to counter the out-of-control, unhinged RINOs who think the party is something it’s not and their insistence that Trump and Trumptardation was a one-off

Not really, LOL...?

[Adam Griffin]

Is there any movement in GA to abolish general election runoffs? I am not a fan of them at all.

Almost certainly won't happen until Democrats take both the Governorship and the General Assembly.

To give you some examples, the runoff law was set by Democrats and was 50%+1 from its inception until after the 1992 elections, when Wyche Fowler won a plurality on Election Day and lost the runoff a few weeks later; Democrats moved the threshold to 45%+1.

The GOP took the Governorship in 2002 and both chambers of the General Assembly in 2004. The following year, the GOP raised the runoff threshold back to 50%+1.

It has always existed in whatever form based on how it benefited the majority party (and/or the majority race, in the Democrats' case, in primaries).

[Adam Griffin]

So this is interesting - and not necessarily the result (at least in distribution) you'd expect based on media framing...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Factoid seen on Twitter: if either Cagle or Kemp wins in November, they will be the first lifelong Republican to become governor of Georgia.  Both Perdue and Deal were previously Democrats.

[Skill and Chance]

So this is interesting - and not necessarily the result (at least in distribution) you'd expect based on media framing...

The population taking the Dem ballot in North GA must be down to the committed liberals now?

[GeorgiaModerate]

So this is interesting - and not necessarily the result (at least in distribution) you'd expect based on media framing...

The population taking the Dem ballot in North GA must be down to the committed liberals now?

Some of them haven't been committed yet; they're still running around loose.

(I suspect your explanation is the correct one.)

[Adam Griffin]

So this is interesting - and not necessarily the result (at least in distribution) you'd expect based on media framing...

The population taking the Dem ballot in North GA must be down to the committed liberals now?

Definitely - but looking throughout rural GA as a whole, it would appear that (rural) blacks are less supportive of banning bump stocks than (rural) whites. I use parentheses there because it may not be limited just to rural voters, but voters as a whole.

There are some counties in the southern part of the state where Dixiecrats/Republicans may be skewing things a bit, but the broader trend is still strong even when excluding them. As an example, of the 20 blackest counties in GA (as a % of population), 19 of them voted in favor of the ban by less than the state as a whole (the one exception - Dekalb - is arguably the only one that's also full of white yuppie liberals).

The only other potential explanation would be disproportionate drop-off of black voters down-ballot, but that wouldn't explain why the northern counties with virtually no black voters are still so strongly in favor. It also wouldn't explain why many of the heavily-white suburban counties around the state are more in favor as well (why Columbia is more in favor than Richmond; why Houston is more in favor than Bibb; why Effingham is more in favor than Chatham; etc).