Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

So screw looking at 2010 (the Democratic electorate has changed so much since then that I think using "competitive primary" equivalents here is worthless). Here's the comparison between 2014-2018:

Code:

Black-18	      338865	60.15%
White-18	      167611	29.75%
Non-BW-18	16124	2.86%
Unknown-18	40704	7.24%
Total-18	      563304

Black-14	     231568	65.58%
White-14	     102890	29.13%
Non-BW-14	 2821	0.80%
Unknown-14     15824	4.49%
Total-14	     353103

Black-18		146% of 2014
White-18		163% of 2014
Non-BW-18        572% of 2014
Unknown-18	257% of 2014
Total-18	        160% of 2014

Note: the "other/unknown" categories are expanding rapidly and have basically become a catch-all, and in many cases are locally representative of the electorates and/or new registrations as a whole. With all the new ways in which voter registrations are processed, race-related information often gets missed or omitted; still, it's best not to make tons of assumptions about these voters unless you're analyzing the data at a granular level. Nevertheless, I'm sure the bulk of them are either white or black.

[Devout Centrist]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

‘Forever Boycotting’ lmao

Also lol at Deal throwing Cagle a bone by attacking the Cinema industry

[Progressive Pessimist]

The much awaited sequel has arrived
https://youtu.be/Y6htgrVPi7A

Why?

[KingSweden]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

‘Forever Boycotting’ lmao

Also lol at Deal throwing Cagle a bone by attacking the Cinema industry

Hollywood South has been a huge economic boon for GA hasn’t it? Between this and Delta cultural conservatism is proving itself quite insistent on nose and face spiting

[GeorgiaModerate]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

‘Forever Boycotting’ lmao

Also lol at Deal throwing Cagle a bone by attacking the Cinema industry

Hollywood South has been a huge economic boon for GA hasn’t it? Between this and Delta cultural conservatism is proving itself quite insistent on nose and face spiting

Yes, it's a very big business here.  Atlanta ranks 10th among cities worldwide, and Georgia 7th among U.S. states, in the number of TV shows and films produced.  Source

[Rookie Yinzer]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

‘Forever Boycotting’ lmao

Also lol at Deal throwing Cagle a bone by attacking the Cinema industry

Hollywood South has been a huge economic boon for GA hasn’t it? Between this and Delta cultural conservatism is proving itself quite insistent on nose and face spiting

And this stuff is not going to get people out to the polls. While they are talking about the "Hollywood elite" and Sanctuary Cities (of which there are none in the state of Georgia), the other side will be galvanizing on education, healthcare, economic equity, and investment in rural Georgia. I really believe in my heart Abrams is going to pull this off, she's so methodical and intentional about her path to victory. Cagle and Kemp are off pandering and acting like idiots.

[KingSweden]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

‘Forever Boycotting’ lmao

Also lol at Deal throwing Cagle a bone by attacking the Cinema industry

Hollywood South has been a huge economic boon for GA hasn’t it? Between this and Delta cultural conservatism is proving itself quite insistent on nose and face spiting

Yes, it's a very big business here.  Atlanta ranks 10th among cities worldwide, and Georgia 7th among U.S. states, in the number of TV shows and films produced.  Source

I notice a lot of movies now I’ll be all like “hey that’s Atlanta.” And I’ve never been to Atlanta so that’s how you know they film a lot of stuff there haha

[QAnonKelly]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

‘Forever Boycotting’ lmao

Also lol at Deal throwing Cagle a bone by attacking the Cinema industry

Hollywood South has been a huge economic boon for GA hasn’t it? Between this and Delta cultural conservatism is proving itself quite insistent on nose and face spiting

Yes, it's a very big business here.  Atlanta ranks 10th among cities worldwide, and Georgia 7th among U.S. states, in the number of TV shows and films produced.  Source

I notice a lot of movies now I’ll be all like “hey that’s Atlanta.” And I’ve never been to Atlanta so that’s how you know they film a lot of stuff there haha

They film pretty much all the Marvel movies here now and have for several years. The OG Ant Man was the first and that came out in 2015. The only two they haven’t done here are the last  Thor (bc it was part of Cate Blanchett’s deal to do it) and Captain Marvel that comes out in March (they won a lottery to get a tax credit for California). They’re filming Spider-man right now.

[KingSweden]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

‘Forever Boycotting’ lmao

Also lol at Deal throwing Cagle a bone by attacking the Cinema industry

Hollywood South has been a huge economic boon for GA hasn’t it? Between this and Delta cultural conservatism is proving itself quite insistent on nose and face spiting

Yes, it's a very big business here.  Atlanta ranks 10th among cities worldwide, and Georgia 7th among U.S. states, in the number of TV shows and films produced.  Source

I notice a lot of movies now I’ll be all like “hey that’s Atlanta.” And I’ve never been to Atlanta so that’s how you know they film a lot of stuff there haha

They film pretty much all the Marvel movies here now and have for several years. The OG Ant Man was the first and that came out in 2015. The only two they haven’t done here are the last  Thor (bc it was part of Cate Blanchett’s deal to do it) and Captain Marvel that comes out in March (they won a lottery to get a tax credit for California). They’re filming Spider-man right now.

TIL Cate Blanchett hates Atlanta

[QAnonKelly]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

‘Forever Boycotting’ lmao

Also lol at Deal throwing Cagle a bone by attacking the Cinema industry

Hollywood South has been a huge economic boon for GA hasn’t it? Between this and Delta cultural conservatism is proving itself quite insistent on nose and face spiting

Yes, it's a very big business here.  Atlanta ranks 10th among cities worldwide, and Georgia 7th among U.S. states, in the number of TV shows and films produced.  Source

I notice a lot of movies now I’ll be all like “hey that’s Atlanta.” And I’ve never been to Atlanta so that’s how you know they film a lot of stuff there haha

They film pretty much all the Marvel movies here now and have for several years. The OG Ant Man was the first and that came out in 2015. The only two they haven’t done here are the last  Thor (bc it was part of Cate Blanchett’s deal to do it) and Captain Marvel that comes out in March (they won a lottery to get a tax credit for California). They’re filming Spider-man right now.

TIL Cate Blanchett hates Atlanta

She and her husband adopted a baby not too long ago and that was her first movie after taking maternity leave so she wanted it to be filmed in Australia.

[KingSweden]

AJC story on Cagle trying to channel Trump on Twitter: https://politics.myajc.com/blog/politics/trumpish-tweet-georgia-gop-runoff-for-governor/HuihqtXDuDMbXjq67REfrM/

‘Forever Boycotting’ lmao

Also lol at Deal throwing Cagle a bone by attacking the Cinema industry

Hollywood South has been a huge economic boon for GA hasn’t it? Between this and Delta cultural conservatism is proving itself quite insistent on nose and face spiting

Yes, it's a very big business here.  Atlanta ranks 10th among cities worldwide, and Georgia 7th among U.S. states, in the number of TV shows and films produced.  Source

I notice a lot of movies now I’ll be all like “hey that’s Atlanta.” And I’ve never been to Atlanta so that’s how you know they film a lot of stuff there haha

They film pretty much all the Marvel movies here now and have for several years. The OG Ant Man was the first and that came out in 2015. The only two they haven’t done here are the last  Thor (bc it was part of Cate Blanchett’s deal to do it) and Captain Marvel that comes out in March (they won a lottery to get a tax credit for California). They’re filming Spider-man right now.

TIL Cate Blanchett hates Atlanta

She and her husband adopted a baby not too long ago and that was her first movie after taking maternity leave so she wanted it to be filmed in Australia.

My comment was tongue in cheek but that’s a really good reason to keep filming close to home. She was awesome in Thor: Ragnarok

[QAnonKelly]

Kemp internal showing them tied at 45%

https://madmimi.com/p/ed567c

[GeorgiaModerate]

The HD-28 Republican primary (decided by 67 votes) may need to be redone after the discovery that some voters were given ballots for the wrong district:

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-election-might-voided-after-voters-were-given-wrong-ballots/frxrsJc6KD31Ji1cVlfFxL/

[KingSweden]

The HD-28 Republican primary (decided by 67 votes) may need to be redone after the discovery that some voters were given ballots for the wrong district:

https://politics.myajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/georgia-election-might-voided-after-voters-were-given-wrong-ballots/frxrsJc6KD31Ji1cVlfFxL/

Like that snafu in VA

[wesmoorenerd]

Kemp is going to win at this rate. Recent polling is showing a tight race, even a statistical tie. Kemp has the momentum and has been doing better every poll. Higher propensity voters are leaning Kemp, which should already be enough to tilt the race in his favor. Even better for Kemp, Cagle's scandals keep growing and still aren't fully out yet, and Kemp is doing great among voters that have caught wind of Cagle's incompetence and corruption. To top it all off, Kemp is probably the better campaigner, throwing out pure red meat to the conservative base. Mark my words: Kemp is going to win the runoff and lose to Abrams.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Kemp is going to win at this rate. Recent polling is showing a tight race, even a statistical tie. Kemp has the momentum and has been doing better every poll. Higher propensity voters are leaning Kemp, which should already be enough to tilt the race in his favor. Even better for Kemp, Cagle's scandals keep growing and still aren't fully out yet, and Kemp is doing great among voters that have caught wind of Cagle's incompetence and corruption. To top it all off, Kemp is probably the better campaigner, throwing out pure red meat to the conservative base. Mark my words: Kemp is going to win the runoff and lose to Abrams.

I’m biased but yeah this is shaping up to be an Abrams upset. Georgia was only one point to the right of NC with absolutely no investment from the Hillary Clinton campaign and Georgia is where Trump has his lowest approval ratings in the Deep South. Not to mention Georgia has a black voter bloc that just needs the right message and messenger to activate its robust power, and I believe Abrams is that candidate.

Brian Kemp also has a past with targeting groups who advocate for non-white voting. He launched a 2010 investigation into organizers in Brooks County after African-Americans swept local offices, launched an investigation in 2012 against an Asian American organization who had inquired about naturalized citizens being left off of voter rolls after they registered, and most notably going after Abrams’ New Georgia Project accusing her of voter registration fraud. All of them were cleared of any wrong-doing.

He’s also on tape saying this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://thinkprogress.org/georgia-secretary-of-state-laments-that-democrats-are-registering-minority-voters-8b9d677c6b32/

So the national PACS backing Abrams will have that on television after Labor Day.

[QAnonKelly]

Kemp is going to win at this rate. Recent polling is showing a tight race, even a statistical tie. Kemp has the momentum and has been doing better every poll. Higher propensity voters are leaning Kemp, which should already be enough to tilt the race in his favor. Even better for Kemp, Cagle's scandals keep growing and still aren't fully out yet, and Kemp is doing great among voters that have caught wind of Cagle's incompetence and corruption. To top it all off, Kemp is probably the better campaigner, throwing out pure red meat to the conservative base. Mark my words: Kemp is going to win the runoff and lose to Abrams.

I’m biased but yeah this is shaping up to be an Abrams upset. Georgia was only one point to the right of NC with absolutely no investment from the Hillary Clinton campaign and Georgia is where Trump has his lowest approval ratings in the Deep South. Not to mention Georgia has a black voter bloc that just needs the right message and messenger to activate its robust power, and I believe Abrams is that candidate.

Brian Kemp also has a past with targeting groups who advocate for non-white voting. He launched a 2010 investigation into organizers in Brooks County after African-Americans swept local offices, launched an investigation in 2012 against an Asian American organization who had inquired about naturalized citizens being left off of voter rolls after they registered, and most notably going after Abrams’ New Georgia Project accusing her of voter registration fraud. All of them were cleared of any wrong-doing.

He’s also on tape saying this:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

https://thinkprogress.org/georgia-secretary-of-state-laments-that-democrats-are-registering-minority-voters-8b9d677c6b32/

So the national PACS backing Abrams will have that on television after Labor Day.

I’m also starting to think this could very well be an Abrams upset. While Cagle and Kemp waste time and money attacking each other, she’s out there hustling and doing her thing while keeping her head down. There’s still four months left but at this point she has caught every break and has made no major mistakes. Only issue I could see for her is not being able to get to 50 % + 1

[Oryxslayer]

Also now that I think about it, if a runoff were to take place, whos to say it would benefit the R this time. It has in the past, but the D base has been shown to come out in low turnout elections, and its possible Abrams would win even in a scenario such as this.

We actually saw in a few GA special elections over the past two years that this quite brutally still holds true, even Ossoff was kinda affected by it.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

[Alabama_Indy10]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

Not the same at all. The 6th district went from Price +30 to Handel +4. Georgia was only Trump +5 in 2016....

[wesmoorenerd]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

I do agree that a runoff will be an uphill battle, but GA-06 does lean less more Republican than GA as a whole. Not to mention I don't really think it's debatable that Abrams is a better candidate than Ossoff.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

Not the same at all. The 6th district went from Price +30 to Handel +4. Georgia was only Trump +5 in 2016....

Not really a fair comparison; Price's last election was against a nobody who ran a nonexistent campaign.  But if we go by Cook PVI, the 6th has a bigger Republican lean than does the entire state.  Cook has GA-06 at R+8, and averaging the result for all 14 districts yields a statewide lean of R+5.3.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

I do agree that a runoff will be an uphill battle, but GA-06 does lean less Republican than GA as a whole. Not to mention I don't really think it's debatable that Abrams is a better candidate than Ossoff.

Nope.  Averaging the Cook PVI's for the state (source), the statewide lean is R+5.3, while GA-06 is R+8.

[QAnonKelly]

Hopefully 25% of whites, 75% of non-black POC, and either 95% of black voters (as 30% of the electorate) or 90% of them (as 33-34% of the electorate) can get her to 50%.

Even if it does go to a run off, it will be nationalized due to Stacey Abrams's profile and unlike GA-06 it won't be confined to a district with an built-in Republican lean. And unlike in the past, hard Ds will have a candidate that is actually distinguishable from the Republican and they will be motivated to come out.

You're right. Instead it will be confined to a state with a Republican lean.

I do agree that a runoff will be an uphill battle, but GA-06 does lean less Republican than GA as a whole. Not to mention I don't really think it's debatable that Abrams is a better candidate than Ossoff.

Was listening to political rewind on my way home from class (Georgia NPR show) and they were specifically talking about how the 8% jump in D voting could probably get someone over the hump statewide but it probably won’t show itself in the Congressional races just bc there’s not a district that’s less than 8 because of the way they’re drawn