Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[OneJ]

Lol at everything above.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I just got a robopoll for the governor's race, one of the most extreme push polls I've ever taken.  I'll try to reproduce the questions as best I can recall.  This wording is close but may not be verbatim:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing?

2. Are you likely or not likely to vote in the November general election?

3. Do you plan to vote for Brian Kemp, Republican, or Stacey Abrams, Democrat?

4. Brian Kemp has been a small business owner for 30 years.  In his first business he dug ditches on his own.  He understands the needs of small business owners.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Kemp?

5. Stacey Abrams voted for sanctuary cities that prevent almost all cooperation between law enforcement and immigration authorities.  This could allow dangerous criminals to run loose in our communities.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Abrams?

6. Stacey Abrams wants to raise your taxes, but she doesn't pay her own taxes.  She owes the IRS over $50,000.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Abrams?

7. Stacey Abrams voted to protect sex offenders.  She was one of two representatives to vote against a bill to collect DNA from convicted sex offenders.  She placed the rights of sex offenders over the safety of the community.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Abrams?

The rest were demographic questions.

I get calls like that all the time here.

For Georgia?   (Not entirely a joke -- I keep getting robopolls for the GA-7 House race.  On my landline, which is in GA-9.)

[libertpaulian]

Bunch of new organizers joined the team today. At this point in the campaign four years ago, the field organizing staff was 70 percent Georgia residents/30 out-state residents this year it is 70/30 but in the complete reverse. The staff is already about double what it was when Carter ran with more joining next month.

Man, this is a campaign for the history books!

[henster]

I just got a robopoll for the governor's race, one of the most extreme push polls I've ever taken.  I'll try to reproduce the questions as best I can recall.  This wording is close but may not be verbatim:

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing?

2. Are you likely or not likely to vote in the November general election?

3. Do you plan to vote for Brian Kemp, Republican, or Stacey Abrams, Democrat?

4. Brian Kemp has been a small business owner for 30 years.  In his first business he dug ditches on his own.  He understands the needs of small business owners.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Kemp?

5. Stacey Abrams voted for sanctuary cities that prevent almost all cooperation between law enforcement and immigration authorities.  This could allow dangerous criminals to run loose in our communities.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Abrams?

6. Stacey Abrams wants to raise your taxes, but she doesn't pay her own taxes.  She owes the IRS over $50,000.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Abrams?

7. Stacey Abrams voted to protect sex offenders.  She was one of two representatives to vote against a bill to collect DNA from convicted sex offenders.  She placed the rights of sex offenders over the safety of the community.  Does this make you more or less likely to vote for Abrams?

The rest were demographic questions.

That's the first time I'm hearing about the sex offender thing, I'm sure it'll end up in a TV ad sooner or later. I find the attacks insinuating candidate X is friendly to pedophiles/sex offenders the most repugnant.

[Skye]

Sabato's Crystal Ball moves this race to Lean R (from Likely R).

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-governors-2018-ratings-changes-abound/

[Adam Griffin]

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.

[libertpaulian]

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.

The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.

[Oryxslayer]

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.

The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.

TBH though this kind of activity is a classic double standard. Right now we are exalting her for reaching out to areas that are typically off the map, but if she loses we will be blaming her for sending resources to areas she shouldn't have. It is not that it doesn't deserve attention, it is just that we the observers will overplay its significance - in either direction.

[libertpaulian]

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.

The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.

TBH though this kind of activity is a classic double standard. Right now we are exalting her for reaching out to areas that are typically off the map, but if she loses we will be blaming her for sending resources to areas she shouldn't have. It is not that it doesn't deserve attention, it is just that we the observers will overplay its significance - in either direction.

If she loses by more than Hillary did, then we can direct some sort of fault toward her.

If she loses by Hillary's margin or less, I consider it a moral victory, especially given GA's demographics.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.

The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.

TBH though this kind of activity is a classic double standard. Right now we are exalting her for reaching out to areas that are typically off the map, but if she loses we will be blaming her for sending resources to areas she shouldn't have. It is not that it doesn't deserve attention, it is just that we the observers will overplay its significance - in either direction.

Democratic bastions like Athens, Augusta, and Savannah are getting double or triple the paid field staff they had in 2016. The state party is not hurting for resources.  If Abrams loses (which she won’t ) it’s because she was always going to.

[libertpaulian]

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.

The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.

TBH though this kind of activity is a classic double standard. Right now we are exalting her for reaching out to areas that are typically off the map, but if she loses we will be blaming her for sending resources to areas she shouldn't have. It is not that it doesn't deserve attention, it is just that we the observers will overplay its significance - in either direction.

Democratic bastions like Athens, Augusta, and Savannah are getting double or triple the paid field staff they had in 2016. The state party is not hurting for resources.  If Abrams loses (which she won’t ) it’s because she was always going to.

What do you think are the necessary demos for an Abrams victory?  Something like 57% white 43% non-white?

[Rookie Yinzer]

What do you think are the necessary demos for an Abrams victory?  Something like 57% white 43% non-white?

I posted some numbers a few pages back, but as of today I think/hope she can do this:

White (59%) 25% of vote
Black (31%) 93% of vote
Latino (5%) 70% of vote
Asian (3%) 60% of vote
Other (2%) 55% of vote

I can't stress enough how expansive and far-reaching this field operation is in comparison to Jason Carter. They are digging in deep and this is just the state party's Coordinated Campaign promoting Abrams, Amico, and Democrats down the ballot. The Abrams apparatus themselves are paying people to do nothing but knock on doors for 10 hours a day, and they plan to reach out to 1 million on their own with no overlap with the 3 million voters the state party plans to touch.

And there are like a million political groups who are going to swarm into Georgia once Early Voting starts from trade unions, to AAPI interest groups, Black Pac, Black Economic Alliance, NARAL, Let America Vote, Emily's List, Mijente, National Domestic Workers Alliance, Working Families' Party, etc. Maybe I'm just hopped up on a high of Stacey Abrams but I just don't see how Kemp wins unless it goes to a run off.

Which it won't.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I haven't seen any presence from the Abrams campaign in UGA.

Meanwhile, I see a presence from Turning Point USA all the time.

[libertpaulian]

What do you think are the necessary demos for an Abrams victory?  Something like 57% white 43% non-white?

I posted some numbers a few pages back, but as of today I think/hope she can do this:

White (59%) 25% of vote
Black (31%) 93% of vote
Latino (5%) 70% of vote
Asian (3%) 60% of vote
Other (2%) 55% of vote

I can't stress enough how expansive and far-reaching this field operation is in comparison to Jason Carter. They are digging in deep and this is just the state party's Coordinated Campaign promoting Abrams, Amico, and Democrats down the ballot. The Abrams apparatus themselves are paying people to do nothing but knock on doors for 10 hours a day, and they plan to reach out to 1 million on their own with no overlap with the 3 million voters the state party plans to touch.

And there are like a million political groups who are going to swarm into Georgia once Early Voting starts from trade unions, to AAPI interest groups, Black Pac, Black Economic Alliance, NARAL, Let America Vote, Emily's List, Mijente, National Domestic Workers Alliance, Working Families' Party, etc. Maybe I'm just hopped up on a high of Stacey Abrams but I just don't see how Kemp wins unless it goes to a run off.

Which it won't.

That's what I meant by "an Abrams victory."  She wins 50.01% (or more!) on Election Night in her own right without having to worry about December.  The next day she can plan what her inaugural party is going to be like.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I haven't seen any presence from the Abrams campaign in UGA.

I know for a fact there's a Dawgs for Abrams student organization there. I'm not affiliated with it, so I don't know how well they promote it. Either way, four field organizers are being dispatched to Athens next week. With more on the way.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I haven't seen any presence from the Abrams campaign in UGA.

I know for a fact there's a Dawgs for Abrams student organization there. I'm not affiliated with it, so I don't know how well they promote it. Either way, four field organizers are being dispatched to Athens next week. With more on the way.

It exists but I don't see any outreach at all on campus.

Meanwhile the Turning Point dudes are always around.

Come to think of it, hardly any Kemp outreach either besides one guy I know.

[Adam Griffin]

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.

The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.

TBH though this kind of activity is a classic double standard. Right now we are exalting her for reaching out to areas that are typically off the map, but if she loses we will be blaming her for sending resources to areas she shouldn't have. It is not that it doesn't deserve attention, it is just that we the observers will overplay its significance - in either direction.

I don't think anybody who knows the entirety of Georgia and its demographics would make such a diagnosis after the fact (though, to be fair, there are plenty in the party who think that way). It is North Georgia and North Georgia alone that has been denying Democrats victory over the past 10 years, and abandoning the region has only ceded ground to the GOP and atrophied Democratic infrastructure. We've lost a vote statewide for every one we've gained since 2008 and much of it comes from North Georgia. I'd argue that for any persuasion-based outreach, North Georgia is the most opportune area for GA Democrats to learn how to master the strategy in rural areas again, but given its low turnout and huge drop-offs in midterms (particularly in the NW), turnout strategies can produce results as well.

Democrats need to close the margin by like 275k votes to win a majority and you're only realistically going to get half of that out of Metro ATL; maybe another 20% of that out of the remaining urban areas if you're lucky. That leaves another 100k votes or so that have to come from rural Georgia, and South Georgia doesn't have anywhere near enough population to pull those kinds of figures.

Georgia is not Illinois. You cannot win a majority statewide by assuming the major metro can carry the state across the line kicking and screaming (yet). A Democratic candidate who doesn't seriously contest every region of the state is not a serious candidate, and isn't going to win because the votes just aren't there otherwise. We've been in a situation for awhile now where if we could just pull the numbers among whites or rural voters that we had 4-6 years prior, we'd be on the verge of winning pluralities at minimum, but abandoning the areas where those losses are occurring only ensures one set of demographics is cancelled out by the other.

[libertpaulian]

I haven't seen any presence from the Abrams campaign in UGA.

I know for a fact there's a Dawgs for Abrams student organization there. I'm not affiliated with it, so I don't know how well they promote it. Either way, four field organizers are being dispatched to Athens next week. With more on the way.

It exists but I don't see any outreach at all on campus.

Meanwhile the Turning Point dudes are always around.

Come to think of it, hardly any Kemp outreach either besides one guy I know.

Well, I don't think very many Turning Point cultists are going to be voting Abrams, lol.

[Devout Centrist]

I haven't seen any presence from the Abrams campaign in UGA.

Meanwhile, I see a presence from Turning Point USA all the time.

This is the case at every university. It's almost like a cult at times.

[Adam Griffin]

And I'd point out that I've just given up on prognosticating that "we've reached the bottom". I thought we were there in 2008 (and again in 2012), but then 2016 showed me that Democrats in GA could fall a lot farther than I'd ever imagined possible. I also imagine Abrams is also going to lose ground with the usual likely rural white voters compared to Carter (who really didn't do that badly in rural areas; better than Obama '12 and in some cases Obama '08), so organizing in these areas is necessary both to back-fill additional losses, turn out irregular voters and improve margins.

[Oryxslayer]

A side comment, but I went to listen to a Jason kander live interview in SF yesterday, and he considers Abrams: one of the top three smartest people he knows, a personal friends, and the presumptive favorite to win. He will probably be pouring a lot of money into here through his FairVote group because of both the recent controversy over the voting process, and the fact that the republican nominee is Kemp.

[QAnonKelly]

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/17/opinion/columnists/stacey-abrams-georgia-governor-debt.html

Pretty much sums up my opinion about Abrams’s financial situation

[Sestak]

A side comment, but I went to listen to a Jason kander live interview in SF yesterday, and he considers Abrams: one of the top three smartest people he knows, a personal friends, and the presumptive favorite to win. He will probably be pouring a lot of money into here through his FairVote group because of both the recent controversy over the voting process, and the fact that the republican nominee is Kemp.

First: Jason's org is LAV, not FairVote.

Second, we've already been strongly supporting Abrams and will continue to do so.

[Oryxslayer]

A side comment, but I went to listen to a Jason kander live interview in SF yesterday, and he considers Abrams: one of the top three smartest people he knows, a personal friends, and the presumptive favorite to win. He will probably be pouring a lot of money into here through his FairVote group because of both the recent controversy over the voting process, and the fact that the republican nominee is Kemp.

First: Jason's org is LAV, not FairVote.

Second, we've already been strongly supporting Abrams and will continue to do so.

My mistake then.

[Blair]

Forgive my ignorance; but is Abrams virtually dead on arrival if it’s a run off? I can see a very cruel scenario where she’d beat Kemp but not reach 50%.