Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Virginiá]

Forgive my ignorance; but is Abrams virtually dead on arrival if it’s a run off? I can see a very cruel scenario where she’d beat Kemp but not reach 50%.

I think that is the general assumption, but given how insanely enthusiastic the left is and how much they have been over-performing in special elections, I'm not convinced a runoff would doom her.

[Zaybay]

Forgive my ignorance; but is Abrams virtually dead on arrival if it’s a run off? I can see a very cruel scenario where she’d beat Kemp but not reach 50%.

I think that is the general assumption, but given how insanely enthusiastic the left is and how much they have been over-performing in special elections, I'm not convinced a runoff would doom her.

I think the same thing. It could either be a blowout for the R, or Abrams can win modestly. We dont really have any info on which could occur.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Forgive my ignorance; but is Abrams virtually dead on arrival if it’s a run off? I can see a very cruel scenario where she’d beat Kemp but not reach 50%.

I think that is the general assumption, but given how insanely enthusiastic the left is and how much they have been over-performing in special elections, I'm not convinced a runoff would doom her.

I think the same thing. It could either be a blowout for the R, or Abrams can win modestly. We dont really have any info on which could occur.

It will still be a Toss Up. And no I don’t care what happened in the 2008 Senate run off. There are so many factors that make what could happen this year different from then.

[Virginiá]

It will still be a Toss Up. And no I don’t care what happened in the 2008 Senate run off. There are so many factors that make what could happen this year different from then.

FWIW, a runoff after 2008's general is different than a runoff after a midterm election, because there is no change in the presidency. It almost seems like Obama started dragging on the Democratic Party literally as soon as he was declared the winner. It might be that the "White House curse" begins sooner than you'd think.

Meanwhile, for this cycle, the left is going to be just as fired up on the runoff election date as it was during the first election. That's my hot take, anyhow.

[OneJ]

When will the likely potential runoff be held?

[Podgy the Bear]

When will the likely potential runoff be held?

Four weeks after the general--putting it after Thanksgiving

[136or142]

If Republicans are so certain of winning, why are they trying to shut down most polling stations in at least one black majority area?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Michael Williams, the horrible state senator from my district, strikes again.  In a CNN interview, he said that using the n-word is wrong, but if Trump used it before he became President "it doesn't mean we need to continue to berate him."

I'm so glad he's leaving office.  (He ran for governor this year, and finished dead last in the GOP primary.)

[IceSpear]

That's just the sneak peek of the generic R response if in fact the tape does come out.

[libertpaulian]

That's just the sneak peek of the generic R response if in fact the tape does come out.

If Kemp really does give a weaksauce response like that should such a tape be leaked, African-Americans in the ATL Metro and Black Belt will turn out in such record numbers that they'll be able to cancel out whatever rural rubes show up elsewhere.

[Politician]

Inside Elections rates this race Likely R and says "Kemp has a strong advantage", and I have no reason to question their expertise.

[Rookie Yinzer]

That's just the sneak peek of the generic R response if in fact the tape does come out.

If Kemp really does give a weaksauce response like that should such a tape be leaked, African-Americans in the ATL Metro and Black Belt will turn out in such record numbers that they'll be able to cancel out whatever rural rubes show up elsewhere.

We’re already going to be doing that. We have field offices all over deeply Democratic areas in the metro running FL/OH presidential level operations right now.

In fact, I attended a field office launch last night in Henry County. The crowd was magnetic when Abrams walked in. I really believe we’re going to do this.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Inside Elections rates this race Likely R and says "Kemp has a strong advantage", and I have no reason to question their expertise.

Inside Elections is probably leaning heavily on Georgia's results in the last few cycles.  However, this year is not like the last few cycles.  Most of the Georgia posters here, some of whom have long experience directly involved in state politics or observing it, believe the race is at most Lean R.  The Abrams campaign is working hard, and with the general headwinds against Republicans this year, she has a real shot at winning.  I'm calling it a Tossup at this point.

[IceSpear]

Inside Elections rates this race Likely R and says "Kemp has a strong advantage", and I have no reason to question their expertise.

Indeed. VA-10 was clearly a pure toss up until 20 hours ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Completely meaningless stat for those who like number patterns: when I opened the page for this board just now, this thread had 2679 replies and 206079 views.  (And isn't it past time for a new thread?)

[Adam Griffin]

Completely meaningless stat for those who like number patterns: when I opened the page for this board just now, this thread had 2679 replies and 206079 views.  (And isn't it past time for a new thread?)

And let Washington continue to out-megathread us? Never!

Though I wouldn't be against merging this thread with a new one if the first post in the thread was the OP for the new thread; would give the option to edit thread title with new news and so forth. BK has left the forum as far as I know.

[libertpaulian]

Completely meaningless stat for those who like number patterns: when I opened the page for this board just now, this thread had 2679 replies and 206079 views.  (And isn't it past time for a new thread?)

And let Washington continue to out-megathread us? Never!

Though I wouldn't be against merging this thread with a new one if the first post in the thread was the OP for the new thread; would give the option to edit thread title with new news and so forth. BK has left the forum as far as I know.

BK's most recent post was a few days ago.

[Virginiá]

Completely meaningless stat for those who like number patterns: when I opened the page for this board just now, this thread had 2679 replies and 206079 views.  (And isn't it past time for a new thread?)

And let Washington continue to out-megathread us? Never!

Though I wouldn't be against merging this thread with a new one if the first post in the thread was the OP for the new thread; would give the option to edit thread title with new news and so forth. BK has left the forum as far as I know.

griff you should do the honors

[Adam Griffin]

Completely meaningless stat for those who like number patterns: when I opened the page for this board just now, this thread had 2679 replies and 206079 views.  (And isn't it past time for a new thread?)

And let Washington continue to out-megathread us? Never!

Though I wouldn't be against merging this thread with a new one if the first post in the thread was the OP for the new thread; would give the option to edit thread title with new news and so forth. BK has left the forum as far as I know.

griff you should do the honors

So they'll merge like that properly? If so, here we go!