Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Podgy the Bear]

Rasmussen (not one of my favorite pollsters) has a new poll this week with Carter-45, Deal-44. 

I didn't think that Carter would be running this strongly going into August.  It's encouraging, but that 50%+1 has hurt us twice in the past (Wyche Fowler in 1992 and Jim Martin in 2008).  I'm afraid we could be doubly hit this year.

[Podgy the Bear]

Perdue just can't pull away.   The Sam Nunn effect seems to be helping...people here have fond memories of him. 

The northwest Georgia results could be real.  The economy was really hit hard here (with many counties having unemployment rates well into the teens and beyond).  The story (real or not) of the Pillowtex collapse looks to be resonating against Perdue.

[Podgy the Bear]

Posted by: Lowly Griff
I've been wanting to see the Kannapolis ad on the airwaves in the North, but haven't seen it yet. Where are you in NW GA?

Live in the north Atlanta suburbs but have regular work projects in Cartersville and Calhoun.  Things have been tough.  Unemployment rate in Bartow County (Cartersville) topped around 15-16% at the height of the recession, and it's still around 11% in Whitfield County (Dalton).

[Podgy the Bear]

According to the AJC, it looks we would have avoided the supermajority even if Bennett had lost.  But it's still a sweet win--and hopefully, the start of a serious Democratic comeback in the years to come...

[Podgy the Bear]

Hopefully, Georgia will follow the national trend in 2018 and will cause several Republican seats to flip.  It didn't happen in 2006--which was the last off year Democratic tilt.  But that was because Mark Taylor was an awful gubernatorial candidate.  

[Podgy the Bear]

The early vote trend to the Democrats is quite encouraging.  It's hard to reach a conclusion why this is so.  And we can't assume this has any bearing on the final outcome.   Nevertheless, there's reason to think there could be a race in November.

[Podgy the Bear]

According to the latest numbers, the 6th district is 61% white, the 7th is 46% white.

Both districts are "browning" rapidly.  But the influx of Asians, Hispanics, and non-AA blacks means a good while before they will vote in large numbers--and not necessarily in a homogeneous manner.

That said, the big jump in Democratic primary voters in the 6th/7th/11th districts suggest a competitive race in November.  I would have to agree with the previous poster that these voters are primarily breaking for Evans.  She's running some solid ads right now.

[Podgy the Bear]

Democrats: Which Stacey do you prefer and why?

Voted Evans.  She would run the stronger race in November, though I doubt she will win tonight.

[Podgy the Bear]

Yeah Evans’ campaign was awful. But Abrams’ strategy seems to basically be to ignore white voters and try and max out minority voters. Which is mathematically impossible. We would’ve been so much better off with Jason Carter.

Exactly.  She can't go with this strategy into the general.  To have any chance, she will have to do what Obama did.  That is, she will have to appeal somehow to the white vote in the suburbs/exurbs/rural areas and to reduce the massive margins that Cagle/Kemp will have.  Otherwise, we are looking at numbers of the Denise Majette 2004 senatorial or Mark Taylor 2006 gubernatorial races.

[Podgy the Bear]

White voters  love Abrams. She is not ignoring them. She is simply acknowledging that the black base is the heart and soul of the party.

That we are still pretending that she is unpalatable to white voters after her decisive victory in North Georgia and the North Atlanta suburbs is hilarious.

When you talk about her decisive victory in North Georgia--take a look at Fannin County (Blue Ridge) which she won 286 to 180.  And then look at the Republican vote there--close to 2900 (and I am sure that hardly any of these people will not vote Republican in November).  Yes, there are progressive voters in this part of the state--but very few.  And that's about it for the Democratic white vote here--it's all moved to the Republicans.

Abrams will not win in November.  There's too much baggage, and her message will not resonate in most of the state.  However, she could be very influential to get out the base and strengthen the minority vote.  This can help people like Sarah Amico and John Barrow and other downstream candidates in their races.  

[Podgy the Bear]

She needs to emulate the Obama strategy of counting on her base to turn out and then focus on those hostile areas.  And with the Republicans in runoff mode for the next month, Abrams needs to do it now.
By cutting those 50-60 point margins in these counties down to 20-30 points, it gives her some chance. 

And it really provides the possibility for the Democrats to pick up those downstream offices.  Amico and Barrow are the best bets here.

I still think it will be very tough for Abrams, but 2018 could be the start of the progressive-moderate coalition that the Democrats need to become competitive in Georgia.  Good to know that Evans backed Abrams immediately--the Democrats must be unified in every way to make it work.

[Podgy the Bear]

I had voted for Evans because I fully doubted Abrams' GOTV setup and her appeal beyond the Democratic base.  I had thought that the big uptick for Democrats in the early voting in the north Atlanta suburbs would be highly favorable for Evans.

I now realize this is not the case.  Abrams dominated throughout the state, and the primary vote between the two parties was the closest it has been in several years. 

Even though I think it will be difficult for her to win, she has the ability to make an impact on making Georgia a two-party state again.  She has to do whatever possible to make inroads in those areas that are going to be very hostile to Democrats (not to mention a black woman).  I keep bringing this up--it's the Obama strategy of having some impact on rural Iowa which allowed him to cut the expected deficits in those areas and to win the state twice in 2008 and 2012.

At the very least, it will make the downstream races very competitive--with good chances to pick up the Lieutenant Governor (perhaps the most powerful position in the state) and SOS.

[Podgy the Bear]

Hillary, Bernie, Biden, Booker, Harris... yeah national Democrats are going to be all in for this race.

I hope to see Biden, Booker, Harris, and Bernie barnstorming the state this fall. I am excited!

Georgia has a lot of transplants, people may scoff at these national endorsements, but yeah... nobody cares about Barnes, Cleland, Darden, and others. Their base of voters are either dead or Republicans at this point. Abrams is the beginning of a new dynasty of Georgia Democrats.

Not sure how Bernie would help tbh (and I'm a huge Bernie fan, so this isn't anything against him personally). He got creamed in the Dem primary in 2016 in GA, even in rural white areas.

Well Abrams doesn't intend to leave any votes on the table, so I expect to see him in Atlanta proper and Athens (where he only lost by 1 point). I would really like to see Abrams crack 67-70% in Athens-Clarke County. Bernie could definitely move some butts to the polls there.

That's what I want to see--that Abrams doesn't intend to leave any votes on the table.  This means going to north Georgia and to the suburban areas surrounding Columbus, Savannah, and Augusta and denting the margins.  I don't really care who comes in (and I agree with you on Bernie in midtown Atlanta/Decatur/Athens), but it needs to be a solid, unified effort.  If this is the case, I think we have a chance.

[Podgy the Bear]

Nunn and Carter ran as moderates scared to declare position on the major issues.

Obama overperformed with blacks but got swamped in the white suburbs.

Hillary had poor black turnout and didn’t really contest it. Priorities USA ran ads on black/Urban radio telling people to vote against Trump.

Georgia has only gotten more diverse since 2008, Abrams will have massive investment in black voters and Spanish first language voters, a favorable national environment where whites in the burbs may break for the Democrat, and potentially a candidate who will depress rural turnout.

Abrams will overperform percentage-wise with her base and nationally, the trend is favorable to Democrats.  But the absolute numbers are critical, and her base doesn't turn out for mid-year elections. 

I have said this before--she needs to go to those hostile areas in the state and pick up votes.    This is how Obama won states like Iowa.  And it's how Robert Kennedy won the Senate election in New York in 1964.  He was accused of being a carpetbagger and was running against a popular Republican incumbent and was no shoo-in to win.    He campaigned hard in the rural parts of the state and picked up enough support there and then provided his margin of victory by winning easily in New York City. 

Abrams has the capability to do the same--reduce the margin in those difficult areas and crush the Republican nominee in Atlanta.

[Podgy the Bear]

Nunn and Carter ran as moderates scared to declare position on the major issues.

Obama overperformed with blacks but got swamped in the white suburbs.

Hillary had poor black turnout and didn’t really contest it. Priorities USA ran ads on black/Urban radio telling people to vote against Trump.

Georgia has only gotten more diverse since 2008, Abrams will have massive investment in black voters and Spanish first language voters, a favorable national environment where whites in the burbs may break for the Democrat, and potentially a candidate who will depress rural turnout.

Abrams will overperform percentage-wise with her base and nationally, the trend is favorable to Democrats.  But the absolute numbers are critical, and her base doesn't turn out for mid-year elections.  

I have said this before--she needs to go to those hostile areas in the state and pick up votes.    This is how Obama won states like Iowa.And it's how Robert Kennedy won the Senate election in New York in 1964.  He was accused of being a carpetbagger and was running against a popular Republican incumbent and was no shoo-in to win.    He campaigned hard in the rural parts of the state and picked up enough support there and then provided his margin of victory by winning easily in New York City.  

Abrams has the capability to do the same--reduce the margin in those difficult areas and crush the Republican nominee in Atlanta.

I'm sorry, that really bothered me. Iowa is not hostile D territory. One election does not a state make.

Anyway, your partially right on the strategy needed by Abrams. But the most important part is to get the suburbs on her side. These areas have the most votes and were the R base. If she can flip counties like Cobb, then she is golden.
Also, AAs have rather good turnout in midterms. Its mostly Hispanic voters that drop off.

Read the article in the Nation (https://www.thenation.com/article/guy-iowa-knows-democrats-can-win-back-rural-america/) and you'll see what I'm talking about.

"When Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, he took 45 percent of the rural vote nationwide. In Iowa, a state that is often seen as a bellwether for measuring the sentiments of farm country and small-town America, Obama carried the rural regions of the state. Of the state’s 99 counties, Obama won 53.

When Hillary Clinton lost the presidency in 2016, she secured just 33 percent of the rural vote nationwide. In Iowa, Clinton lost the rural regions of the state by 30 points. The Democrat carried just six of the state’s 99 counties."

Obama knew this about Iowa--campaigned in all 99 counties and did well.  Hillary and her out of touch handlers did not.  That's what I am happy to see what Stacey Abrams is doing.  Campaigning in places like Dahlonega (Lumpkin County where Hillary received a pathetic 17 percent of the vote when her husband won the county 24 years earlier) will go a long way to win a difficult race.

[Podgy the Bear]

And yes, Georgia is more urban/suburban than Iowa, but it's substantially rural as well.

[Podgy the Bear]

I am with Georgia Moderate on every point (including voting for Stacey Evans for the same reasons) except that I think that it still remains Tossup to Lean R--and with both Cagle and Kemp.  

I expect that the Republicans will come together after the runoff and will direct their attention against Abrams and will bring about the horrors that a black, liberal woman will wreak upon the wonderful, upstanding moral Georgia way of life.  

Good to know that Abrams is working hard to GOTV from the base--and that she is targeting those areas where she needs to drive down the massive Republican margins have rolled up in only the last 20 years.  For example, Banks County in NE Georgia gave the Democrats only 9 percent of the vote in 2016 (they received 40+ percent in the 1990s).    If Abrams can pick up 20-30 percent of the vote in counties like Banks, she'll have a chance to win.

I think the LG race will follow the gubernatorial race.  The SOS race seems to be most competitive for the Democrats.

[Podgy the Bear]

Significant article in today's NY Times about the Republican runoff. 

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/15/us/georgia-governor-cagle-kemp.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

The race is beginning to garner national attention.  It should happen anyway, as we are now the 8th largest state in the country and (hopefully) moving to a purple state.

[Podgy the Bear]

I'm still not confident in Georgia being ready to elect a black woman statewide, but it should be very close against Kemp nonetheless. Which would be a huge boon in getting Barrow and maybe another downballot Dem across the line.

The precedent here is the 2006 Senate race in Tennessee where Harold Ford Jr. came within 3 points to win the race.  There was some coattail effect with Phil Bredesen's landslide re-election win for governor that year.  But Ford did make his message somewhat palatable to appeal to many rural white voters and pick up several of these counties.

It will be tough but with this strategy, I believe Abrams has a larger base to work with to carry her through.  At the least, this should at least elect some downballot Democrats and pick up several seats in the legislature.

[Podgy the Bear]

Abrams got the cover of Time:

https://twitter.com/TIME/status/1022452004713582592

I’m shook. She is really doing a great job of cultivating a cultural moment. The other side thinks she’s going to flameout and only win Fulton County. They’re going to be gobsmacked on Election Night.

This is the kind of stuff which gives Abrams a big individual star in the national liberal universe-- but it doesn't necessarily do anything for her to win in November.     

[Podgy the Bear]

I look at it this way--great to know that she is doing the Obama strategy of hitting hostile territory and going to places like Dalton to go after votes that surely would have been written off otherwise.  If she does this and can at least match the Hillary vote share in suburban Atlanta, she has a chance.

[Podgy the Bear]

Griff--Thanks for the pictures and information.  A very good turnout in early August in the pouring rain (and the weather is really bad this week in north Georgia).

FYI--in 2016, Clinton got 26% of the vote in Whitfield County (lowest Dem vote share since 1972) and lost by a margin of 13500 votes.  If Abrams can reduce the margins by 15-20% in places like Whitfield, it will go a long way.

[Podgy the Bear]

Ok, how do you all rank the statewide offices this year, from most to least likely to be won by a D?

Secretary of State
Lieutenant Governor
Governor
Attorney General

[Podgy the Bear]

When will the likely potential runoff be held?

Four weeks after the general--putting it after Thanksgiving