Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Virginiá]

LOL Virginia being a part of the south

?

Becoming more Democratic doesn't mean it's no longer Southern.

[Virginiá]

You must be really stoned if you think that map is legit... but who cares anyways

Huh? That is the Census map of the Southern United States.

If you have a different idea of what now constitutes the South, maybe you should actually describe it so we all know what you're talking about. It's a better idea than just sitting here making insulting posts, as if everyone should obviously know & be devoted to Young Texan's secret Southern definition.

[Virginiá]

It's the culture that determines whether or not a particular place is southern, not some arbitrary line drawn in 1767.

But then who becomes the arbiter of Southern culture? I never really went past NoVA but as I understand it a large part of that state could still be considered Southern in culture, in which area size may be relevant here since we're talking about geographical regions. With that, would Virginia have been considered Southern in 2005?

It seems better to call a state Southern if it's in what is defined as the geographical South. If the culture has mostly "de-Southernized," then it seems more fit to say something like "New South," as some demographers have done in relation to political trends.

[Virginiá]

I'd like to see her run for GA Attorney General in '18. Keep up her profile in preparation for 2020's Senate race. After all, that is a smidgen less than 4 years from now.

Although, on the other hand, if she lost that it might be counterproductive..

[Virginiá]

After the SD-6 result putting two Democrats in the runoff, Republicans want to do away with the jungle primary in special elections: http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/11/10/republican-loss-of-senate-seat-sparks-proposal-to-change-voting-process/

Oh, there it is. Typical "we lost one election that barely even matters in the first place, quick, let's change the way we conduct elections to help us win next time!" response.

Although I must say, in this case I definitely do support such a change. Jungle primaries suck.

[Virginiá]

Is there a website or PDF that has results in the 2016 presidential race by State Senate and State House Districts? I believe I may have saw one earlier in the year but can't find it. Hoping one of you all may have seen the same thing and have the link saved.

This has 2012 and 2016 results for every state's legislative districts:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/7/9/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts

DKE also summarizes the results for various state legislative districts in short pieces, but it's harder to find those and I don't have any links handy.

[Virginiá]

It isn't shocking that there are more democrats than Republicans in Georgia. There have traditionally been more, and more Americans identify as Democrats in general.

What kind of Democrats? Democrats or Democrats? There is a difference. Also, it doesn't really matter if the Indies are lopsided in favor of Republicans.

[Virginiá]

Lawsuit filed challenging the 2015 redraw of metro ATL state House districts as a racial gerrymander: https://lawyerscommittee.org/press-release/lawyers-committee-civil-rights-law-files-motion-seeking-relief-2018-midterm-election-cycle-georgia-voters-impacted-unlawful-gerrymandering/

Oof. I thought they did this already. Obviously I agree with their challenge but why the hell did they wait so long? Shame!

-

It's also nice little actions like this by Republicans that really spice up their usual retort to gerrymandering challenges by Democrats:

"They can't win elections so they file lawsuits against our maps!"

*proceeds to change map when it looks like Democrats will win an election*

[Virginiá]

Griffin - what do you think the final early vote shares are going to be (once ED vote is factored in)? The early vote numbers look much closer than past primaries, but I'm wondering if we should expect the Republican share to balloon in size once all is said and done, so that it looks more like past elections?

Or is the Democratic share of GA expanding in a notable way?

[Virginiá]

Virginia clearly shows that the purely anti-immigration, social conservative red bone strategy is a dud. Generic R vs Generic D lost by 5%. Gillespie lost by 9%.

A lot of WWC voters get pretty annoyed when Republicans aren't talking about real issues to their problems, and instead are just talking about muh immigrants muh guns.

Georgia is pretty similar to Virginia, even though it's about 10 points to the right. Copying the sanctuary city strategy is a dumb idea, even if Republicans still probably win regardless.

Didn't Republicans increase or at least maintain their turnout in Virginia '17? I thought I recall seeing something to that effect, which if true, might suggest that Gillespie/Trump-styled campaigns might help mitigate their problems in certain parts of the country (while hurting them even more in others). OTOH, it might be the case that the Gillespie strategy didn't result in anything that wasn't going to happen already. Hard to say for sure.

[Virginiá]

The "experts" are going to blow 2018 because they are making predictions based off of the assumption that the status quo which has existed under our current party system will continue to exist and be reflected in upcoming elections. They seem to think that this muh polarization and culture war will keep going on forever but it won't. The Reagan era is over and and anyone who makes predictions thinking the same Red state / Blue state dichtonomy that has existed since the 2000s is a dope.

But wouldn't there be varying levels of truth to the old way of thinking about things until a new order is established? The only time since the country has been powered by electricity where the political landscape blew up practically overnight was during the Great Depression, and even then, despite Democrats taking over almost every single state for at least a brief while, a lot of them starting reverting back to form by the end of the 30s. It doesn't seem like there is any GD-level event yet to disrupt the system that much.

And even if a realignment is right around the corner, it doesn't seem like it is here yet. 2020 would sound like a better bet for that. And still, even if that is the case, realignments are still partially built on existing voting habits. Reagan's was built on the existing GOP coalition + working class whites, which had started shifting years beforehand. A Democratic realignment now would be built on Millennials and college educated voters, with some sizable chunk of working class voters probably breaking away from the GOP.

[Virginiá]

If anyone can reach out to the rurals, it would be her. Still think Kemp has this, but Abrams will give it all she got. I see this more of a toss-up than the Ohio/Wisconsin races (which are clearly Likely R, if not Solid R, right now). Rooting big for Abrams to turn the tide and end the GOP hegemony here.

In what universe are Ohio and Wisconsin likely/solid R?  You just aren't speaking sense.

Keep in mind that this is coming from the guy who thought Trump would get a "cave bump" from the rescue of the students in Thailand.

[Virginiá]

It does seem kind of weird for voters to take issue with her debt but not Trump's, who not only proudly declared himself the King Of Debt, but also arguably has more outstanding debt than revenue. It's actually even more ridiculous than that if you consider all the other business/finance-related scummy stuff Trump was involved in, which is too numerous for a short post to detail.

[Virginiá]

Forgive my ignorance; but is Abrams virtually dead on arrival if it’s a run off? I can see a very cruel scenario where she’d beat Kemp but not reach 50%.

I think that is the general assumption, but given how insanely enthusiastic the left is and how much they have been over-performing in special elections, I'm not convinced a runoff would doom her.

[Virginiá]

It will still be a Toss Up. And no I don’t care what happened in the 2008 Senate run off. There are so many factors that make what could happen this year different from then.

FWIW, a runoff after 2008's general is different than a runoff after a midterm election, because there is no change in the presidency. It almost seems like Obama started dragging on the Democratic Party literally as soon as he was declared the winner. It might be that the "White House curse" begins sooner than you'd think.

Meanwhile, for this cycle, the left is going to be just as fired up on the runoff election date as it was during the first election. That's my hot take, anyhow.

[Virginiá]

Completely meaningless stat for those who like number patterns: when I opened the page for this board just now, this thread had 2679 replies and 206079 views.  (And isn't it past time for a new thread?)

And let Washington continue to out-megathread us? Never!

Though I wouldn't be against merging this thread with a new one if the first post in the thread was the OP for the new thread; would give the option to edit thread title with new news and so forth. BK has left the forum as far as I know.

griff you should do the honors