Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Rookie Yinzer]

Not excited about Abrams' run.

[Rookie Yinzer]

The Stacey's and Jason Carter were the only Dem candidates I was aware of exploring a run. Are there any other prospective Dem primary challengers?

[Rookie Yinzer]

^ Thanks for the analysis! I agree with the point you made with Evans needing to connect with rural black voters along that corridor of poor predominantly black counties(Taliaferro, Hancock, Warren, Washington, etc.) The message can work there and also in the Northwestern part of the state that she hails from.

On paper I am probably an Abrams voter. Young, African-American, progressive, college educated that resides in the 4th district, but I am leaning Evans at this point.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams endorsed by Emily's List.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Abrams endorsed by Emily's List.

Easiest endorsement by far for female democrats to get.

I know that. It was just interesting to me they chose Abrams over Evans immediately and didn't wait until after the primaries.

[Rookie Yinzer]

JAHN BARRA is running for Secretary of State! I can already see the campaign ads:

"I'm Jahn Barra and long before I was born, my granddaddy used this lil' Smith and Wesson here to help stahp a literacy test"

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://politics.blog.myajc.com/2017/09/25/barrow-aims-for-a-political-comeback-with-bid-for-georgia-statewide-office/

If he wanted to run for statewide office, why not run for Governor? Would he struggle in a primary?

Stacey Evans is already going after the Blue Dog coalition. If he enters this will split that vote and lead to Stacey Abrams (who is ridiculously far left--- and I'm sorry but she's a black woman), who will get obliterated in a GE.

John Barrow is a huge name to get for SoS!!! I'm excited about this.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey Abrams (who is ridiculously far left--- and I'm sorry but she's a black woman)

lol

What's funny?

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey Abrams (who is ridiculously far left--- and I'm sorry but she's a black woman)

lol

What's funny?

It's probably your comment if I had to guess.

Thanks for your insight. :eyeroll:

[Rookie Yinzer]

Stacey Abrams (who is ridiculously far left--- and I'm sorry but she's a black woman)

lol

What's funny?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"ridiculously far-left"

Touche.

I should have said that she will be perceived as far left due to her stance on social issues even if she is willing to concede on some issues and work with Republicans. Couple that with her race, the fact that she does not have a husband or children, the optics are terrible for her electability in a state with a racially polarized and socially conservative (both white and black) electorate.

You're laughing but he's right. Georgia isn't going to elect Stacey Abrams in 2018.  She might be able to pull Obama-level support among blacks, but the very best she can hope for is to also reach his level of support among whites. Which isn't near enough to get the 50+1 to avoid a runoff.

Obama level support is even reaching. I don't think that black men will vote for her in Obama numbers. And she will not do as well as HRC did in the affluent Atlanta suburbs.

I'm voting for Evans. I'd rather lose by 5-10 points than 10-15.

John Barrow is a welcome addition to the ballot next fall. He could actually win his race with his roots he may be able to flip enough of the vote down in Central and South Georgia to have a fighting chance.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm encouraged that most of Evans' endorsements are from local politicians while Abrams' only has the endorsements of the Georgia Democrats in Congress and outside interest groups. I was pleased to see a group of a dozen black legislators come out and endorse Evans. I was worried that the primary would be racialized which would hurt Evans, but it looks like those involved in local politics understand that Abrams is unelectable.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm encouraged that most of Evans' endorsements are from local politicians while Abrams' only has the endorsements of the Georgia Democrats in Congress and outside interest groups. I was pleased to see a group of a dozen black legislators come out and endorse Evans. I was worried that the primary would be racialized which would hurt Evans, but it looks like those involved in local politics understand that Abrams is unelectable.

Doesn’t look too great that Jimmy Carter also walked back what seemed like an endorsement.

Of Abrams?

[Rookie Yinzer]

I'm encouraged that most of Evans' endorsements are from local politicians while Abrams' only has the endorsements of the Georgia Democrats in Congress and outside interest groups. I was pleased to see a group of a dozen black legislators come out and endorse Evans. I was worried that the primary would be racialized which would hurt Evans, but it looks like those involved in local politics understand that Abrams is unelectable.

Doesn’t look too great that Jimmy Carter also walked back what seemed like an endorsement.

Of Abrams?

Yeah. He introduced her somewhere as something to the effect of “hopefully the next governor of GA”. IIRC the next day,  his office put out a statement saying that he hadn’t made up his mind and will support whoever gets the nom.

Yikes!

This race will certainly be interesting as it unfolds. I was done with Abrams after she refused to condemn the protesters who shouted down at Evans at the Netroots Conference holding up signs inferring she didn't support black women and compared her to Betsy Devos. When asked why they didn't like Evans they couldn't name one vote, policy decision, or otherwise. Disgusting.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Joining Evans' campaign under a fellowship, hoping I get a job offer after the new year.

[Rookie Yinzer]

It is streaming on Georgia Win List's website. I will post my thoughts once it is over.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I was impressed with Evans' performance, though I am a bit biased.

There are very few policy differences between the candidates but I am just completely turned off by Abrams' style. She blatantly tried to misrepresent Evans' record on education, even as Evans made it clear that one bill she tried to pin on her was before her tenure in office and another was voted for initially but she opposed it after the Senate changed it before sending it back.

Evans shined when Abrams refused to condemn the Netroots protestors and Evans issued a full throated repudiation of anyone affiliated with her campaign or not that may attempt to silence Abrams in the future.

When asked about how they would run a primary that can avoid fracturing the party for the General, I appreciated Abrams stating that race should not be interjected into this race. Evans countered that nicely by stating her campaign would be run with integrity and focused on issues that keeps families up at night. She needs to avoid directly addressing race in this primary in regards to her opponent, because her words can be easily used against her and she needs black women next November.

The segment where they discussed how they would govern with Republican majorities in the State House and Senate was interesting. Evans stating that she would gladly bear the blame of passing legislation to improve healthcare if moderate Republicans needed someone to blame was a good one. That was a nice way to reach out to ticket splitting voters. My absolute favorite part was her dedication to fair redistricting in 2020. That was one of the most important issues discussed when I met with her campaign last week. This should be on the cornerstones of her campaign that can motivate both policy wonks and apathetic voters. Voter suppression and gerrymandering must be dismantled in the state.

Also when both were asked how they would win, Evans subtly noted that she was the best candidate to win over rural ancestral Dems who voted Trump or stayed home, and to reach out suburban women in Cobb and Gwinnett counties that voted Hillary or Ossoff.

Excited for this race!

[Rookie Yinzer]

The Republican guys are doing a forum to start off their campaigns Saturday.

Who do you think the easier Republican will be to face? (If Evans get the nom of course)

[Rookie Yinzer]

Poor thing. Grasping for attention. Wonder if Deplorable will endorse him.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Evans has continued to garner endorsements from local black politicians over the past week. Abrams has yet to receive an endorsement from an elected official in Georgia or anyone in the State Legislatire. This is pretty damning considering she was the Minority Leader in the State House.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Evans has continued to garner endorsements from local black politicians over the past week. Abrams has yet to receive an endorsement from an elected official in Georgia or anyone in the State Legislatire. This is pretty damning considering she was the Minority Leader in the State House.

The House also rejected her pick for successor, right?

Yes. Abrams may be a progressive hero to outsiders who just want her to win because of her demographics but under the gold dome she is seen as anything but. The resistance to her candidacy is strong. I expect Abrams' lack of intra-state support to be a major hitting point once the actual debates get rolling.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Go Jen Jordan! I look forward to seeing her take the seat in the District 6 run off (hopefully!)

I really hope #TheResistance remains strong into 2018. The elections across the country got me just a little bit more optimistic about Stacey Evans (not Abrams, sorry) being able to be competitive. I just don't know what kind of GOPer we are going to get and how they'll use cultural issues to trick her into saying something that a.) pisses off triggered white snowflakes or b.) is problematic to black and brown voters. We just need to go after the Democratic base relentlessly.

[Rookie Yinzer]

After Tuesday Night's successes (esp in Virginia), I have a lot of hope for Evans's prospects. I just don't see Abrams being able to do well in a GE. Especially with her botching of the Netroots fiasco (the attack ads write themselves).

She has way too many things that can be used against her. She is radioactive. She has still yet to receive a single endorsement from an elected official in the state and the primary is a short 6 months away.

I won't make a case for Evans in the white rural parts of the state but I do know that she can keep Cobb County blue as she has served Smyrna in the State House. Gwinnett County is already trending blue as Hillary got majority of the vote here, which I didn't realize and white people are less than 40 percent of the population here. She needs a massive Northam-style GOTV effort in those counties plus Fulton, Henry, Rockdale, Newton, DeKalb, Clayton, and Fayette.

ETA: What do people think about Ossoff for Lieutenant Governor? I noticed that NO ONE has filed for it yet. That could be beneficial with his high name recognition from the GA-06 special election.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is there a website or PDF that has results in the 2016 presidential race by State Senate and State House Districts? I believe I may have saw one earlier in the year but can't find it. Hoping one of you all may have seen the same thing and have the link saved.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Is there a website or PDF that has results in the 2016 presidential race by State Senate and State House Districts? I believe I may have saw one earlier in the year but can't find it. Hoping one of you all may have seen the same thing and have the link saved.

This has 2012 and 2016 results for every state's legislative districts:

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2013/7/9/1220127/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2012-election-results-by-congressional-and-legislative-districts

DKE also summarizes the results for various state legislative districts in short pieces, but it's harder to find those and I don't have any links handy.

Thanks so much! This is exactly what I viewed before.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Atlanta mayoral candidate Mary Norwood accuses current Mayor Kasim Reed of voter fraud in her 2009 loss to him:

http://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional-govt--politics/ajc-exclusive-norwood-accuses-reed-widespread-voter-fraud-2009-contest/ni18X40T8cT6XSEI0KUQGO/

She should have spoke up then. She is trying to cause dissent because she knows Bottoms is so closely linked to Reed. Any ATLiens in here? How are you feeling about the mayoral race?

Since Evans has endorsed Bottoms and Greg Bluestein said Bottoms will officially endorse Evans later (presumably after the election) , there's another black local politician that picked her over Abrams. Kasim Reed has also implied he's supporting Evans. Not looking too good for Abrams.

At this point, I am convinced she will not receive an endorsement from any local black official. Anyone that does not endorse Evans, will simply remain neutral. The GOP is locked, stocked, and ready to go with attacking Abrams full-stop. The Democrats know she is the more vulnerable of the two.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Can Evans inspire the kind of AA, Latino, and Asian turnout necessary to flip the state or at least keep it at a loss of less than 5%?

I don't think she will inspire Obama level turnout among minorities. I do think she will keep it close. Carter lost by 8 points in an Obama lame-duck midterm, so I definitely believe Evans can be competitive with an unpopular Republican in DC. She may be like Northam in that she is simply viewed as anti-Trump proxy and people will go vote for her for that. I think what she really needs is loads of competitive downballot races. Starting with some strong Democrat challenges in GA-06 and GA-07. There are a few State Senate and House seats that have Republican incumbents where Hillary Clinton won that could increase Democrat turnout in these areas.

Vote rich Gwinnett County is trending Democrat. Hillary broke 50 percent here. Evans can also be competitive in Cobb County, she represented Smyrna which is located here so she could reduce margins in this county. She's really going to need to appeal to suburban white women while simultaneously making sure black and Latino turnout is at least a tad better than 2014. Trump in the White House makes this easier.

One of the cornerstones of her campaign is to bring back the HOPE Scholarship. She needs to cascade across the state to every public university to make this case. From Savannah to Augusta to Carrollton to Albany to Macon and everywhere in between. These young voters will turn out for someone promising to make their full tuition free again.