Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Oryxslayer]

Democrats could still win this, but it is probably fair to call this a missed opportunity if Abrams only loses by 2-5 or something like that.

A missed opportunity for whom? D turnout will be up in November, but until older whites die off we are going to need hyper, almost supernatural African-American turnout to win here. Evans is not going to do that. Win or lose, Abrams is going to be the best shot in November. I will wait and see how she does with white voters before we call her or her strategy a total wash.

Also would like to add that Abrams has several different organizations pouring six figures into her campaign and into mobilizing voters. Gente 4 Abrams is mobilizing Latino voters in Metro Atlanta, the Working Families' Party is mobilizing rural black voters, and the National Domestic Workers Alliance is working to galvanize women of color. If Evans somehow won the nomination that would pour cold water on all that momentum.

You can’t win just by maximizing black turnout. The math isn’t there. I literally wrote a 21 page research paper on the subject last year for a class. And that’s what Abrams’ entire campaign strategy is based around. You need Obama level turnout among voters PLUS at least 30 or 31% of white voters.

We saw the path in 2016 - Clinton levels in the Suburbs, Obama levels with AA voters. I have thought for a while that choosing Abrams guarantees the latter but probably loses most hope of the former, unless the eventual R candidate implodes there. Evans leaves both groups open, but probably will fall a tiny bit short in both. A damned if you do, damned if you don't situation one could say.

[Oryxslayer]

Hillary won outright in Gwinnett County, white people are fleeing, and they had like five GOP retirements this cycle. It is the Democrat’s to lose.

I don’t think Evans or Abrams will win Cobb but it won’t be the double digit loss it has been in the past. I’m really going to be watching the margins in Cobb and Fulton to see if there is any meaningful defection from the Republican by white collar whites.

Working Families’ Party is also canvassing black voters in the South Metro area so I’m interested in if she can extend winning margins in Henry, and make inroads in Fayette.

Right now, I’m just hoping for high black and Latino turnout,white defection from the GOP in the North Atlanta suburbs, and depressed white rural turnout.

Here’s to a bitter GOP primary run-off, where Cagle wins 50.1-49.9 leaving many Republicans disillusioned and demoralized heading into the fall.

Nothing will get those “demoralized” Republicans fired up to vote like the chance to beat a black woman in an election.

Pretty much why I don't think Abrams can win -  she can't keep the educated whites in the North Suburbs that swung hard to Clinton. Abrams probably keeps the South/Inner suburban gains, since those are more driven off of minority voters. Evans probably comes close to Clinton in all regards, but doesn't match her.

As has been stated by others here, many times, Abrams's core message of her campaign is that she is a Black Women. Sure, she will win the primary fine, and sure she has adopted many Dem party planks. But her core theme isn't the right one for a electorate ~59% white and >30% AA.

[Oryxslayer]

Also, the Evans internal has black voters weighted at 53% of the electorate and whites at 39%. Either they know something that we don't, or lol...

We are laughing right now, but the data on the ground suggests Clinton voters in the metro are picking Dem ballots. I doubt these people, who formerly voted Republican, are going to be voting for Abrams. Add this to the other white groups voting dem - old school white dems who would never vote for an AA, and urban progressives who like college policies, and a Evans lead of 30% isn't too out there.

[Oryxslayer]

Hill gets a county. lol

[Oryxslayer]

Which Stacey won affluent Gwinnett?

The one that won 90% of the state. Bonus data point - Abrams got the most votes there of any candidate.

[Oryxslayer]

Also now that I think about it, if a runoff were to take place, whos to say it would benefit the R this time. It has in the past, but the D base has been shown to come out in low turnout elections, and its possible Abrams would win even in a scenario such as this.

We actually saw in a few GA special elections over the past two years that this quite brutally still holds true, even Ossoff was kinda affected by it.

[Oryxslayer]

I actually met Brian Kemp at a grocery store earlier this morning. I told him how cool it was to meet him in person, but I didn’t want to be a douche and bother him and ask him for photos or anything.
He said, “Oh, like you’re doing now?”
I was taken aback, and all I could say was “Huh?” but he kept cutting me off and going “huh? huh? huh?” and closing his hand shut in front of my face. I walked away and continued with my shopping, and I heard him chuckle as I walked off. When I came to pay for my stuff up front I saw him trying to walk out the doors with like fifteen Milky Ways in his hands without paying.
The girl at the counter was very nice about it and professional, and was like “Sir, you need to pay for those first.” At first he kept pretending to be tired and not hear her, but eventually turned back around and brought them to the counter.
When she took one of the bars and started scanning it multiple times, he stopped her and told her to scan them each individually “to prevent any electrical infetterence,” and then turned around and winked at me. I don’t even think that’s a word. After she scanned each bar and put them in a bag and started to say the price, he kept interrupting her by yawning really loudly.

.....Wtf? This has to be a joke? It sounds like something one would dream, lol.

Its a well documented copy pasta, where you insert some celebrity's name wherever Kemp's is above. Frankly, it should be reported for trolling.

[Oryxslayer]

I actually met Brian Kemp at a grocery store earlier this morning. I told him how cool it was to meet him in person, but I didn’t want to be a douche and bother him and ask him for photos or anything.
He said, “Oh, like you’re doing now?”
I was taken aback, and all I could say was “Huh?” but he kept cutting me off and going “huh? huh? huh?” and closing his hand shut in front of my face. I walked away and continued with my shopping, and I heard him chuckle as I walked off. When I came to pay for my stuff up front I saw him trying to walk out the doors with like fifteen Milky Ways in his hands without paying.
The girl at the counter was very nice about it and professional, and was like “Sir, you need to pay for those first.” At first he kept pretending to be tired and not hear her, but eventually turned back around and brought them to the counter.
When she took one of the bars and started scanning it multiple times, he stopped her and told her to scan them each individually “to prevent any electrical infetterence,” and then turned around and winked at me. I don’t even think that’s a word. After she scanned each bar and put them in a bag and started to say the price, he kept interrupting her by yawning really loudly.

So he is as much of a jerk as he seems. That's kind of good to know. Yet somehow he is the more reasonable one on policy. Meanwhile Casey Cagle certainly seems like a nicer guy, but is an absolute wolf in sheep's clothing. I don't live in Georgia, but please let Abrams win this!

LOL the generic copypasta got someone XD.

[Oryxslayer]

Basically they are both flawed but in entirely different ways - Abrams probably runs two entirely different campaigns depending on the nominee.

[Oryxslayer]

Kemp way ahead of Cagle in a recent poll, 55%-37%.

https://twitter.com/PhilKentAtl/status/1019954039692365824

[Oryxslayer]

Awesome, the time is now!

Time was changed, results on NY released at 730 now.

Classic Georgia making us wait an eternity for results.

The time-Space continuum bends around the Atlanta board of elections, don't you forget that.

[Oryxslayer]

54 - 45 Kemp Now

[Oryxslayer]

Kemp is winning 77% of the election day vote so far according to the GA SOS's website.

Lol Jesus. Cagle is going to get completely demolished.

But muh Trump endorsement doesn't matter!

In the past, Trump either endorsed against the prevailing wisdom (Alabama) or too late (South Carolina). He seems to have got both of them right this time.

Other the other hand, Governor Deal...

[Oryxslayer]

It is mildly amusing the NYT has still not called it.

Probably waiting for Fulton. Which is stupid since it will have less votes then some of the rural counties.

[Oryxslayer]

NYT calls it. They were waiting on Hall - which went for Kemp.

Edit - It was an error, now a very close Cagle lead, same precinct count.

[Oryxslayer]

There is actually a full CNN 2014 broadcast on youtube, so you can actually find the exact moment the races were called.

Edit: Perdue 10:39 EST, Deal 10:44 EST. Since they are so close to each other, I suspect that was when Fulton released results, and they could accurately make a projection.

[Oryxslayer]

The coordinated campaign is placing field organizers in Rome and Dalton. Neither have had staffers deployed to my knowledge since 2008, and even then, they were volunteers as best as I can recall.

The fact that she's even making any sort of effort toward Northern Georgia at all proves to me that she's a dynamic candidate.  Most Dems would write that area off.

TBH though this kind of activity is a classic double standard. Right now we are exalting her for reaching out to areas that are typically off the map, but if she loses we will be blaming her for sending resources to areas she shouldn't have. It is not that it doesn't deserve attention, it is just that we the observers will overplay its significance - in either direction.

[Oryxslayer]

A side comment, but I went to listen to a Jason kander live interview in SF yesterday, and he considers Abrams: one of the top three smartest people he knows, a personal friends, and the presumptive favorite to win. He will probably be pouring a lot of money into here through his FairVote group because of both the recent controversy over the voting process, and the fact that the republican nominee is Kemp.

[Oryxslayer]

A side comment, but I went to listen to a Jason kander live interview in SF yesterday, and he considers Abrams: one of the top three smartest people he knows, a personal friends, and the presumptive favorite to win. He will probably be pouring a lot of money into here through his FairVote group because of both the recent controversy over the voting process, and the fact that the republican nominee is Kemp.

First: Jason's org is LAV, not FairVote.

Second, we've already been strongly supporting Abrams and will continue to do so.

My mistake then.