Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[All Along The Watchtower]

Interesting analyses, guys.

What do you think will happen first-Georgia becoming a purple state at the Presidential level, or the Georgia state Democratic Party recovering? My money's on the former.  

[All Along The Watchtower]

My guess is that the GOP will hold on to the Senate seat in Georgia (though it might be very narrow). 2016 becomes more interesting, but I don't see any Democratic candidate (aside from Hillary) flipping it.

Consider this: Romney got 53% of the vote in Georgia, compared to 47% nationally. Georgia's PVI in 2012 was R+6. It would probably take a Democratic landslide to flip Georgia into the Democratic column.

Georgia will become more competitive, though. Around 2020ish, I'd expect it to be around where North Carolina is now.

This assumes that things stay the same and nothing changes. Lets say in 2016 Hillary runs and picks up 30% of the white vote in Georgia, then the state most certainly flip to the Dems. Or what if minority turnout drops considerably in GA in 2016? Then we will probably see GA swing and trend strongly Republican.

You also need to look at Georgia's future growth. If the sunbelt doesn't bounce back then Georgia's growth slows considerably and the politics don't change. Or perhaps Georgia reinvents itself and attracts a ton of high skilled tech and research jobs, which is what is beginning to happen lately. Then the blue trend accelerates here even faster. And none of this takes into account both parties changing. I've finally realized that trying to pinpoint the exact year a state flips is pretty fruitless. You just have to sit back and enjoy the ride.

I didn't realize high tech and research=Democratic.