Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Barnes]

Wonderful maps!  Proud to see that my home county (Newton) is part of that Metro Atlanta Democratic trend!

In other news, Charter Schools passed by a disgustingly large 58-42 margin, and the Republicans almost captured a 2/3 majority in both houses of the legislature.  Good God...

[Barnes]

Sad to see so many Democrats, black and white, dropping like flies in the state legislature. It looks like we'll have to deal with GOP majorities for many years to come. However, the Georgia Democratic party can still make Georgia competitive at the national level and in statewide races. We'll just have to see what happens.

Indeed. My ideal statewide candidates for 2014 would probably be Kasim Reed for Governor, and John Barrow for Senate; I think they could both have a decent chance of winning. Any idea of either of them have plans for higher office?

I know Reed has said he has no plans during his current term (which ends in Jan. 2014), but it seems fairly likely that he will run.  Barrow seems to have found the ability to barely hang on regardless oft eh political climate, so I'm not sure if he'll be willing to sacrifice his seat.  He'll most definitely be watching the polling over the next year to see if Saxby is still as unpopular as he was in '08.

[Barnes]

http://gawker.com/5960846/gop-lawmakers-in-georgia-hold-closed+door-session-on-conspiracy-theory-involving-president-obama-the-united-nations-and-mind-control

WTF, Georgia Republicans?

*Sigh* So glad to see my favorite show, "The Kangaroo Court Legislature," got renewed for another two years!

[Barnes]

I figured I'd post this here since the Georgia Redistricting Thread seems to be so far back I couldn't find it.

Yesterday in IRC, Adam Griffin showed me a redistricted Georgia, with ten Democratic seats, which he claimed was inspired by Georgia's 2002-2004 Congressional map.

I found his effort lacking as it didn't overreach nearly enough, or have boundaries nearly insane enough, to accurately claim to be a successor to the 2002 Barnes-o-mander. While it does ignore the VRA, here's my effort at a true Democratic gerrymander worthy of Georgia's history. 11 seats that voted for Obama, only 3 that voted for McCain. Isn't it beautiful?!?

That's rather beautiful, BK.

And you're right, the Republicans have no idea how to gerrymander like the Democrats used to.

[Barnes]

Is it safe to say Deal will win re-election, or are people realizing how big of a scumbag he is?

While it doesn't look like any significant names are considering it, he's not exactly popular among significant elements of the state GOP. It's possible but doubtful.

However, if Kasim Reed runs for Governor he'll be able to make a race of it, at least. Edit: Kasim Reed has stated he's running for reelection in 2013 and has ruled out a Senate run, but didn't say anything about a run for Governor.

Reed is the only viable candidate for this race it seems, he's somewhat popular among Republicans (not that it'd make much difference), and Deal has never been part of the GOP "in-crowd" here.  It would be a nice race, at least.

[Barnes]

OH YEAH! I had forgotten Chip Rogers and Tommie Williams pulled that coup against the Hall County Boys.

Yeah, no doubt Cagle gets all his authority back, either directly or via proxy: the State Senate leadership is once again firmly in the hands of the Deal/Cagle/Ralston triumvirate that currently commands the GA GOP. It looks like Rogers and Williams both stood down because they could sense the inevitable, while their coup colleague Bill Cowsert resoundingly lost his PPT bid to David Shafer, a staunch Deal/Cagle ally. Nathan Deal's senior floor leader in the Senate, Ronnie Chance, is now Majority Leader, while his other floor leader, Butch Miller (from Hall County itself!), is now Caucus Chairman.

Ah yes, the triumvirate.

[Barnes]

The GA GOP is also having an identity battle between the rural and suburban Republicans, and the ones who are socially based or economically based. Romney Republicans vs. Santorum Republicans basically and on some issues like immigration, they have sided with the suburban Republicans over the rural ones.

With the immigration bill, they ticked off a lot of otherwise socially and economically conservative farmers who relied on the cheap labor undocumented immigrants provided, in favor of the suburban Republicans who were hollering about "benefits" and stuff.

Do you think a lot of what you said here (rural vs. suburban split) can be applied next door to the Alabama GOP?  

This doesn't exactly answer your question, but the GA Legislature is more clearly divided between Senate and House Republicans, with the Democrats be almost completely insignificant. This isn't exactly the answer you were looking for, but the entire party in the legislature is very divided.  

[Barnes]

Could that give the Democrats an opportunity in South Georgia?

Not in the short run, no.  The GO has really ensconced itself in the lower half of the state, and it's not really a possibility that effective inroads can be made there in the near future.  In general, voters down there don't really connect (or do, but don't care anyway) their anger with their policies of the Republicans and their ability to vote them out for the Democrats.

[Barnes]

If any observers are interested in the media market battle, Deal and Carter both recently unveiled a few new TV ads for the election: http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2014/06/19/nathan-deal-jason-carter-trade-blows-over-education-with-nasty-attack-ads/

Carter's ads really lack the clarity necessary to pin Deal down on his dramatic cuts to education funding and to HOPE; Deal, like any Republican here, doesn't really have to say much to rile up opposition to a Democrat, which does then make the second ad's focus on specific numbers rather entertaining.

[Barnes]

The Speaker of the House of Representatives, David Ralston, is facing serious ethics complaints in his capacity as an attorney. He could very possibly be disbarred in the near future. Ralston's reelection is all but assured, but this could imperil his position as Speaker in the next legislature.

http://m.ajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/speaker-david-ralston-faces-investigation-possible/ngTGW/

[Barnes]

Yeah, that was pretty great!

I really feel that the Republicans are going to treat this like the Dems treated the 2002 elections and look at the race as a sleeper.  We all saw how that worked out for Barnes and Cleland...

[Barnes]

Yeah, that was pretty great!

I really feel that the Republicans are going to treat this like the Dems treated the 2002 elections and look at the race as a sleeper.  We all saw how that worked out for Barnes and Cleland...

Let's hope so. But we have to remember that in the GA-Gov money race, this isn't necessarily anything new. The only time that a Republican candidate for Governor outraised the Democratic candidate was in 2006 (Barnes outraised Perdue and Deal, and yet lost both times).

True, but this is the first time in modern memory where the incumbent was outraised by a challenger.

[Barnes]

Question to my fellow Democratic compatriots here, you are y'all supporting in the Democratic runoff for school superintendent?  I do believe our votes will make all the difference seeing as I expect this race to set a new record of low turnout.

[Barnes]

Hahaha

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[Barnes]

You both fail to see the absolute joy this is Georgia Dems on this board, though.  We have known since 2010 (well, actually probably before) that Deal is a corrupt, crooked, shady, asshole; however, finally at long last, the rest of the state is starting to realize that.  Maybe, just maybe, the wall of ignorant admiration that most Georgians carry about their "God-lovin, gun-toting, Obama-bashing" right-wingers will start to crumble.  Even a few cracks are good for me.

[Barnes]

Who else voted today? I voted the anti-Hice line, myself.

I took care of mine in the first week of early voting -nothing exciting (I refuse to vote in R primary).

Yeah, I did early voting last week. I did the Democratic as well.

On that note, Valarie Wilson seems to be maintaing a 5% in the Superintendent race.

[Barnes]

COME TO THE CONGRESSIONAL FORUM IF YOU WANT TO LIVE

I felt like no one would be interested in the Superintendent race over there.

[Barnes]

I had no idea John Barrow - excuse me, Barrah - sounded like that.

[Barnes]

From what I've seen, it appears that both Nunn and Carter were the clear winners of their respective debates.  Not that that will have an impact in any appreciable way, but it's good to see.

[Barnes]

BLUE GEORGIA IS EVOLVING INTO RED GEORGIA

Indeed, my friend, indeed.

The AJC is reporting a "surge" in the voter rolls with a large number of registrations still waiting to be approved.

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/state-regional-govt-politics/ajc-analysis-georgia-sees-surge-in-voter-rolls/nhdgL/?icmp=ajc_internallink_invitationbox_apr2013_ajcstub1

[Barnes]

Did anyone catch the Deal/Carter debate tonight? I've come to the point where I don't watch TV "debates" in principle unless there's a driving factor to do so.

[Barnes]

A fascinating development in a downballot race today: the incumbent Republcian School Superintendent, John Barge, endorsed the Democract, Valarie Wilson, for the state's top education position. If you remember, Barge has always been a maverick and attempted an ill-fated primary challenge on Deal in May.

There has been some polling in this race and it's proven to be as just as competitive as the races at the top of the ballot.

[Barnes]

Michelle Nunn Is Within Reach of an Outright Victory in Georgia, according the NY Times's "Upshot" blog.

Still too optimistic for my liking, but it is quite remarkable to see the Dems chances here get progressively better over the month while they've go down in so many other places.

[Barnes]

LOL that Nunn has a greater chance of winning than Braley in IA. I don't think any of us predicted this at the beginning of the season .

Over the past year I've gone back and forth between who had a better chance: Nunn or Carter.  I think most Georgia Dems here had the same issue.  I will say that I'm genuinely surprised that Nunn is surging so strongly near the end.  Surprised, but thrilled.

[Barnes]

Also, I know the Senate and Governor's races are the big draws for everyone's interest in Georgia this year, but every other statewide race (and there are several) have been very close in polling as well.  All of those races only have a Democrat and a Republican, so they'll all be decided on Nov. 4.  Depending on turnout and ticket-splitting there's a good chance of a few upsets on election night.

Like I said above, the School Superintendent race is the big one to watch - all polling there has been tied for week, and the incumbent Republican's endorsement of the Democrat is likely to make some impact at least.