Georgia's Very Own Megathread!

[Adam Griffin]

I think the Amendment will be very close, but I'm leaning toward saying it will pass. There's a stranger divide on just exactly who is supporting this. There will be plenty of white, rural Republicans that vote against it and plenty of black, urban Democrats that vote for it.

[Adam Griffin]

GREAT NEWS!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2012/11/05/black-voters-cast-more-than-one-third-of-1-9-million-early-georgia-ballots/

2008 Early Vote:

White: 60.4%
Black: 34.9%
Other: 4.7%

2012 Early Vote:

White: 59.0%
Black: 33.7%
Other: 7.3%

[Adam Griffin]

Oh, we would've come so close were it not for those pesky northern Georgia counties! I've completed a performance increase map (non-Atlas colors); what was interesting was that at least half of the counties did not give more than 1.5 points in one direction or another. Romney - as of this post - received 1.33 percentage points more than McCain did and it would appear a large portion of that originated from NE Georgia.



Also, I posted this a few days ago in another topic. I haven't been able to find voting results by race yet, but I'm willing to guess based on my graphic below that:

The electorate was approximately 62% white Actual: (61.4%)
Whites voted for Romney 79/20%
Non-whites voted for Obama 91/9%



I think this is a very good result for Georgia and its future Democratic prospects - especially when you look at the swings throughout the rest of the South.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia Dem/Rep Increase ("Half-Swing"), 2000-2012 (non-Atlas colors)

[Adam Griffin]

[Adam Griffin]

Price, Handel, or Graves, I really don't care. Any of them would be better than Shameless.

(I throw in Graves purely for his PATRIOT Act extension and NDAA votes.)

Only if you want an actual theocracy in the state of Georgia.

I find the concept of Baker or Reed for either Governor or Senate interesting, but I still believe that we are not at the point where we can elect an African-American as a Senator or Governor. Other statewide offices seem to be less affected by race. I'm still going for a long-shot Jason Carter or hell, maybe even Carol Porter (although her and Dubose are divorced now).

[Adam Griffin]

Speaking of Chip Rogers:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.myfoxatlanta.com/story/20259570/outgoing-ga-senate-leader-chip-rogers-resigns

[Adam Griffin]

PPP just released its first GA 2014 Governor poll. The results are at least somewhat optimistic; Deal is weaker than some might have expected.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The numbers look much better when you consider the results of the previous Senate poll:

Barrow vs. Chambliss: Chambliss +13
Barrow vs. Deal: Deal +4

Reed vs. Chambliss: Chambliss + 15
Reed vs. Deal: Deal +7

Carter vs. Chambliss: Chambliss + 18
Carter vs. Deal: Deal +8

[Adam Griffin]

Also in the new poll:

• Blacks are more likely to support gay marriage than whites
• Nobody thinks the Falcons need a new stadium, and don't want the government to help pay for it either.
• Tech fans are more liberal than UGA fans.
• Young people in Georgia are extremely polarized. 45% say gay marriage should be legal, but 46% think Georgia should secede because of Obama's election.
  

I was amazed at the 2008 exit polls; basically it suggested that there isn't that much of a difference between the 18-29 and 65+ crowds:

18-29: 48% Obama, 51% McCain
65+: 46% Obama, 54% McCain

Also, apparently 15% of African-Americans in Georgia want to secede from the union because of President Obama's re-election!

[Adam Griffin]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Adam Griffin]

We're never going to beat Washington with this kind of activity.

Chambliss isn't running again! Our earlier hypothetical discussion in regards to the Governorship and the possible candidates correlates pretty similarly to this potential pick-up. Word on the ground is that the DNC is positioning itself to give Georgia greater consideration in the Party:

• DPG Chair Mike Berlon was elected to serve as the Southern Chair on the DNC Executive Committee
• Sen. Lester Jackson was appointed to serve on the powerful Credentials Committee, which determines membership and participation in the national party

The first one in particular gives me great hope. On the other hand, Tennessee held it last year.

[Adam Griffin]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://bettergeorgia.pnstate.org/site/MessageViewer?em_id=74721.0&dlv_id=93181

[Adam Griffin]

This is all happening too quickly.

Kasim Reed bows out of Senate race

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/feb/04/kasim-reed-lynn-westmoreland-bow-out-senate-race/

[Adam Griffin]

I made this the other week. Not a swing map, but rather, a "half-swing" map for the 2010 Gubernatorial race. I'm guessing the huge swings in the urban counties were due to a complete collapse of the party / lower-than-usual midterm turnout in 2006; it'd be fantastic (and probably impossible) if those swings could occur again in 2014.

[Adam Griffin]

Some more food for thought:



I should have clarified better in that descriptor; the 'Other' line is labeled as such because Georgia considered you an 'other' if you were not white or black before 2004. I added the totals of each race group post-2002 together and continued the line graph as-is so as to keep consistency.

• When we compare the four instances above of presidential turnout change over a four-year period, the average is a 1-point decrease per year in white share of electorate, a 0.5-point increase per year in the black share of the electorate and a 0.5-point increase per year in the other share of the electorate.
• When we compare the four instances above of presidential turnout change versus the following mid-term turnout, the average is a 0.7-point increase in white share of the electorate, a 0.4-point decrease in black share of the electorate and a 0.3-point decrease in the other share of the electorate.
• When we compare the three instances above of midterm turnout change over a four-year period, the average is a 3.3-point decrease in white share of the electorate, a 1.8-point increase in black share of the electorate and a 1.5-point increase in the other share of the electorate.

Basically, from that, I'd be willing to bet a 2014 electorate looks as such ("my numbers"):

White - 62.1-63.0%
Black - 29.5-30.1%
Other - 7.4-8.0%

If each demographic votes based on how it appears to have voted in 2012, you can project the following onto a statewide race:

(R) = 52.8%
(D) = 45.2%
(L) = 2.0%



If whites return to giving a statewide Democratic candidate 25% of their votes (which is quite possible), then it looks better:

(R) = 50.2%
(D) = 47.8%
(L) = 2.0%



One exciting prospect is the thought of even more Republicans voting for a Libertarian candidate for Governor in 2014. Those Libertarian estimates are low; in the past two Governors' races, Hayes and Monds both got around 4% of the vote.

[Adam Griffin]

More fun! "Half-swings" for Gov (already did earlier) and Lt Gov, 2006-2010:



You can really see the influence of Dubose's media machine in Central Georgia in the Lt Gov race. Look at Laurens and Johnson counties!

[Adam Griffin]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/feb/26/new-poll-puts-casey-cagle-top-gop-potentials-senat/#

[Adam Griffin]

Is Jason Carter interested for this seat? He's young, he could wait!

He should be, the next one isnt open til 2018 and Deal looks competitive for re-election sadly. And unless Broun wins, Carter would have a better chance at winning the Governor's mansion. He down 46/38 with 16 undecided. He's also only at 65% among blacks w/ 20 neutral. If they come home the race would be 40-46. Currently, Deal is getting 14% of the black vote. He'll probably get about 10 percent on Election Day, at most. I believe the Governor's mansion is still an option.

And the United States Senate elections in 2016? Johnny Isakson will be 71 years old and he could retire. What's more, Non-Hispanic White should represent 58% of the eligible voters in 2016 (62% in 2012). That's why I think Jason Carter should wait 2016, John Barrow is the best candidate we could have if we want to pick up Georgia senate seat in 2014, because he's a conservative democrats and abstentionis higher during a Midterm election for black people.

(I apologize for my spelling mistakes).

IIRC, I read somewhere (maybe even in this thread earlier) that Isakson announced that he will not be retiring in 2016.

[Adam Griffin]

Graves is officially out of the Senate race.

http://atr.rollcall.com/georgia-tom-graves-not-running-for-senate/

Well, there goes my district's chance of getting rid of crazy.

[Adam Griffin]

Barrow for Senate? He may actually be considering it.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/mar/06/your-daily-jolt-evidence-john-barrow-may-be-intere/

[Adam Griffin]

Dalton mayor David Pennington is looking to running in the primary against Deal.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Pennington isn't the worst; Dalton is my stomping ground. He's had running for Gov planned since 2010, when he was holding fundraisers for Carol Porter and schmoozing with big cross-over donors. He's more of a Libertarian than a Republican, and he certainly is right - the Republican leadership here has been rather inept. I sincerely hope he primaries Deal.

[Adam Griffin]

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/mar/29/bob-barrs-controversial-national-level-campaign-te/

Bob Barr wants his old seat back! From R to L to R again.

[Adam Griffin]

Ron Paul endorsed Broun.

I've been LOL'ing all day. It's going to be great to see this buffoon pick up the nomination. Here comes Barrow!

Oh, and on an unrelated (or perhaps somewhat related) note, Organizing for Action is hiring paid staffers in Georgia.

[Adam Griffin]

And here comes Kingston!

http://www.ajc.com/weblogs/political-insider/2013/may/01/jack-kingston-declares-us-senate-and-karen-handel-/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Adam Griffin]

Well, this is awful. Obviously I'm not from the Barrow wing of the party, but I'm realistic: it'd take someone like him to win this seat in 2014 - and that's against Broun. Electorate's bound to be between 61-62% white next year; it's going to take a white conservadem to have a shot.

Barrow, on the other hand, must either think that he'll have a shot at 2016, or doesn't want to be a Senator. Maybe a deal was struck? If he doesn't run in 2016, then he'll probably never get a shot otherwise. The shifts in the state and within the Democratic Party won't be too welcoming to him past then if he doesn't get into the Senate. The primaries that DPG is worried about will become a bigger likelihood by the end of the decade as you have everyone lining up to try to win statewide office.

I'd actually like to see him run for Governor instead, but the state party's saying he will stay in his CD.

As far as Michelle Nunn goes: does she look like the next Senator from Georgia? Maybe - if she doesn't talk about progress, empathy and cooperation.