Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (user search)
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  Georgia's Very Own Megathread! (search mode)
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Author Topic: Georgia's Very Own Megathread!  (Read 310095 times)
Benj
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Posts: 979


« on: November 17, 2012, 10:57:25 PM »

By how much, though? Unless you're drawing Obama-voting seats that a Democrat should usually win, it's pretty pointless. I'd take 8 56% Obama seats over 11 50% Obama seats any day.
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Benj
Jr. Member
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Posts: 979


« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2012, 11:03:54 PM »

Here's a different 7-7 Dem gerrymander of Georgia (7 Dem PVI districts, six of which are quite safe and one of which is safe for its incumbent), maintaining four black-VAP majority districts (three in Atlanta, one in SW Georgia). Definitely could be more rigorous; one of the Atanta districts is still 64% black VAP. At that point I think you'd just be shoring up already safe seats, though.

Anyway. (All demographic data is in VAP; all election data is Obama-McCain 2008.)



GA-1
31W, 54B, 10H, 3A
78O, 22M

GA-2
34W, 53B, 8H, 4A
67O, 33M

GA-3
27W, 64B, 4H, 3A
78O, 22M

GA-4
49W, 19B, 21H, 9A
62O, 37M

GA-5
55W, 37B, 5H, 2A
54O, 46M

GA-6
52W, 40B, 5H, 2A
58O, 42M

GA-7
43W, 51B, 4H, 1A
61O, 39M

Plus seven very R seats (the Gwinnett-Fulton seat being the most "marginal" at 62% McCain).

I figured Barrow would want a seat that's not too safely Democratic to avoid a primary; 54% Obama in 2008 should be plenty enough to keep him safe without risking a primary, especially as the seat is very consistent with his past Savannah-Augusta alignment where he's well-known. I think this district is actually more Democratic than the 2006-2012 iteration and is way safer than the seat he held in 2012.

As for the other seats... a fourth black-majority VAP seat in the Atlanta metro is not possible without some extreme gerrymandering and extensions out to Newnan and other outer exurbs (even then it might be tough). Instead, I went for a safe D seat in the white parts of Atlanta, north DeKalb and the Hispanic/Asian parts of Gwinnett, which creates a very solid D seat. It could be much more D (there's excess black population in the three black seats), but I thought that was unnecessary, and this map is much neater in the Atlanta metro.

In another decade, a fifth D seat in the Atlanta area will probably be possible, even with four black VAP majority seats, since the black population is growing rapidly and there are a significant number of white liberals and Hispanics in the area who can be combined into a fifth seat.

The other new D seat is obviously the Athens-Macon-Augusta seat, which at 58% Obama is fairly solid though not rock-solid. It's dependent on black and student turnout, unfortunately, but that can't be helped. I boosted the Obama vote significantly by snaking around south Georgia to put black towns in this seat and white towns in the south Georgia seat; with a much more natural border, it would be about 55% Obama (still D PVI, but much less so).

Any questions?
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